[NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff

[lf3307]

Originally Posted by Bill_B

Was any data for the other tournaments sent with it?

Sorry for lack of clarity. The data I posted was my own, collected at WPI. We have not received any data from FIRST. The twitter feed data remains the only broader data available at this point...


Dan H.

[engunneer]

Originally Posted by piersklein

win one quarterfinal match in each event (10 points)

Keep in mind you need to win the series to get any elimination points.
They could have worded it that you get 10 points for each series won, but the per match scoring takes backup robots into account where a simple 10 pts/series would not handle backup robots well.

[lf3307]

Originally Posted by loyal

This is how I figure it. Use the unofficial ranking here on CD ok. The top 25 played twice and are a lock for the most part. The next possible to advance goes to rank 62 it looks like and that is 40 points. If every team that is eligible to advance only got 12 points (6-6-0)that would make rank 62 now be 52 points. But I see better than that. 55 is my guess.

Just watch Team 885 in the standings! We won about half our matches in each of Nashua and WPI, were seeded around the mid-point in each, and were drafted in each (#1 pick at WPI!). We won no elimination matches at Nashua, and 3 at WPI. We have 55 points and are now just watching to see whether we make it or not!

We did not punch our own ticket, which is definitely the superior route! Kudos to those that have done so, or will yet do so!


Dan Hudnut, mentor
Team 885, Randolph, VT

[lf3307]

Originally Posted by engunneer

Keep in mind you need to win the series to get any elimination points.
They could have worded it that you get 10 points for each series won, but the per match scoring takes backup robots into account where a simple 10 pts/series would not handle backup robots well.

As you can tell by my following post, I did not understand this subtlety. I believe the announcer at Nashua said otherwise, and I did not check...

[Jessica Boucher]

Originally Posted by lf3307

As you can tell by my following post, I did not understand this subtlety. I believe the announcer at Nashua said otherwise, and I did not check...

These rankings are all about quantifying individual performance of teams who work together, and this decision was made to give surrogates credit for their performance. They're not going to get picking points, but they are competing in elimination matches and should be rewarded if they help their alliance to advance. For a typical surrogate candidate (usually ranking in the middle of the pack), surrogate elimination points may be the thing that puts them over the edge to qualify for the DCMP. It gives them something to fight for.

As for the announcer, educating the masses is the toughest part of this change. We've tried a few tactics, and I think we've settled on something that works - thanks for your patience as we try to get this right! Iterate, iterate, iterate.

[Nathan Streeter]

My current prediction based off of the current points scored (2x first event for those who have only one event, with adjustments for Hartford, NEU, and Pine Tree being more full and for the chunk of points being absorbed by 3rd-event teams) is that the cut-off will be at 59 points. Currently the 6 DCA winners are all above this cut-off, so this could be the actual cut-off.

I would personally recommend that the teams with at least 45 points start considering whether or not they would attend DCMP though... plenty of teams may decline an invite to DCMP for a host of reasons (i.e. cost, short-notice, travel). If you end up getting called on you'll have even less time to respond and you don't want to lose the opportunity just because you weren't prepared!

As a side-note... there are some inaccuracies with with the "unofficial rankings" according to official rankings: 1973 should have 9; 4796 should have 9; 4628 should have 23 (if they were picked 7th not 10th); 4546 should have 23; 3499 should have 25; 3280 should have 46; 3461 should have 20; 2342 should have 12; 121 should have 44; 1350 should have 57; 3718 should have 56; 2064 should have 63; and 4048 should have 75.

[MikeE]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

My current prediction based off of the current points scored (2x first event for those who have only one event, with adjustments for Hartford, NEU, and Pine Tree being more full and for the chunk of points being absorbed by 3rd-event teams) is that the cut-off will be at 59 points. Currently the 6 DCA winners are all above this cut-off, so this could be the actual cut-off.

I'm slightly increasing my earlier estimate of a 57-58 cutoff up to 59-60 based on analysis of all teams having completed their first event and a better sense of how teams earned points in their first and second event (second event shows a mean 23% increase in points scored mostly due to the observation below). But as Nathan correctly points out there are likely to be many teams who qualify but are unable to attend so teams with lower points scores will be at the District Championship.

This was also the first week of competitions where there was a substantial proportion of second event teams and the impact on outcomes was quite dramatic.
Second event teams averaged 35 points at both RIDE and Southington whereas first event teams averaged only 14 and 17 points respectively. The primary cause was elimination selection. At RIDE 18 of the 21 second event teams made it to eliminations compared to only 6 of 16 first event teams. The pattern was similar in Southington with 19 of 20 second event teams advancing vs only 5 of 12 first event teams.

The most obvious explanation would be that experience playing the game helps performance, but it does suggest that there is some specific strategic benefit to teams picking events to compete in (small events over larger events and first event early, second event in the middle of the season).

[PVCpirate]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

As a side-note... there are some inaccuracies with with the "unofficial rankings" according to official rankings: 1973 should have 9; 4796 should have 9; 4628 should have 23 (if they were picked 7th not 10th); 4546 should have 23; 3499 should have 25; 3280 should have 46; 3461 should have 20; 2342 should have 12; 121 should have 44; 1350 should have 57; 3718 should have 56; 2064 should have 63; and 4048 should have 75.

Sorry I'm not perfect! That's why I've been trying to emphasize that they're not official, I'm going for speed over accuracy and I make plenty of mistakes.

[Nathan Streeter]

Originally Posted by PVCpirate

Sorry I'm not perfect! That's why I've been trying to emphasize that they're not official, I'm going for speed over accuracy and I make plenty of mistakes.

Anthony, just wanted to make sure you know that I'm in no way criticizing your work! :-) I'm really glad you've been doing this so promptly after events for the NE community... it is a huge amount of effort! I definitely understand making a few mistakes... a number of the inaccuracies were actually with unusual cases or where there was inconsistent data, which makes it even more understandable!

Knowing how much work you put into it, I just wanted to save you a little time by sharing the inaccuracies since I had already found them. Thank you for your work on making and updating these unofficial standings; it is very much appreciated!

[loyal]

[quote=Nathan Streeter;1365562. Thank you for your work on making and updating these unofficial standings; it is very much appreciated![/QUOTE]

mega ditto

[PVCpirate]

Haha thanks guys! I get robot withdrawals and look for any way to participate. Glad I could help!

[mwtidd]

I broke the teams into 10 segments based on first event percentiles. Then took the average % delta of teams in each segment that had competed in 2 events. I then used that % delta to estimate the event 2 scores for teams yet to compete.

Congrats to all the DCA winners already in!

Here are the top 59 based on these calculations:

rank	team	score
1	58	140
2	177	138
3	176	138
4	2877	121
5	1519	120
6	1991	118
7	236	118
8	4564	115
9	131	115
10	195	114
11	237	114
12	716	112
13	5122	111
14	319	107
15	4761	106
16	138	104
17	230	103
18	4555	100
19	133	96
20	228	94
21	4958	93
22	175	90
23	2168	90
24	125	90
25	166	90
26	4473	89
27	2067	88
28	172	88
29	190	85
30	999	81
31	5112	80
32	3930	77
33	4908	76
34	178	75
35	4909	75
36	4048	75
37	1786	75
38	97	75
39	4055	73
40	2084	72
41	1517	70
42	61	69
43	3525	68
44	1071	68
45	2064	63
46	1735	62
47	1699	61
48	3597	59
49	1058	59
50	3323	59
51	1099	59
52	348	59
53	213	58
54	1350	57
55	95	57
56	246	57
57	1073	57
58	3718	56
59	5163	56

[Chi Meson]

You're missing Robo Squad, 558; with 107 points they should be tied at 14th on this list.

[Steven Donow]

Originally Posted by Chi Meson

You're missing Robo Squad, 558; with 107 points they should be tied at 14th on this list.

As well as 3467, who should be pretty high up having had 71 points at UNH

[Jay O'Donnell]

Originally Posted by Steven Donow

As well as 3467, who should be pretty high up having had 71 points at UNH

I think he took out Chairman's award winners since they qualify already. Explains why 3467 and 558 are two of the teams not included.