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Predictions Week 6: Final Approach
As the regional season comes to a close, this weekend is prepped to give it one heck of a sendoff. It's the last chance for teams to earn an invitation to the Edward Jones Dome, and a handful of the many elite teams competing this weekend still need to claim a banner to do so. Among the big names still seeking a spot at championship are Pink, Team Hammond, Triple Helix, Winnovation, Team Driven, MakeShift Robotics, and the WARLords. Yet the caliber of events this weekend will likely result in some terrific teams missing out on competing again in St. Louis. Fortunately for Wildstang, Simbotics, and the Holy Cows, their Hall of Fame status will buy them more playing time regardless of how they fair on the field this weekend.
While three-assist, fifty-point cycles have grabbed attention and are often the attempted strategy of many elimination alliances, there are plenty who have found success in other ways. The low goal remains a viable option if assist points are racked up, or when tight defensive pressure is applied to an alliance lacking a dominant power forward machine. Many alliances have relied on defense and traffic jams to slow the pace of the game, rather than trying to outgun an opponent in a track meet. Some events this weekend have the potential to be barn burners, while others will take a more deliberate approach.
- The Texas trifecta of 118, 148, and 624 is back for another battle to close the regional season after they took the field together back in week one in Alamo. The Robonauts and CRyptonite paired up to win in the first encounter, but a lot has changed since then, including significant improvements to the Robowranglers' ball security. All three were parts of juggernaut #1 alliances at their second events, with 118 and 148 securing gold behind a path of 200+ scores, and 624's alliance being DQ'd after their Orlando QF victory. There's little doubt that these three are the most proven teams heading into the event, and there's a good chance for another high powered elimination match-up.
- Standing between the that trio and the Lone Star finals is a slew of other Texan competitors, headlined by defending world champions 1477. Texas Torque battled some issues with defense and high goal accuracy in Dallas, but with their lightning quick robot and dual-intakes, they have a boatload of potential. 1801, 3847, and 1429 could also make things interesting, especially if one of them seeds #1 or #2.
- Don't the refs have enough on their plate already, without 1477 pulling a 1519?
- It's impossible to think about the Midwest regional without thinking about the teams from Hammond, Indiana and Schaumberg, Illinois. Prior to the season, if you had suggested that Wildstang would miss the eliminations entirely, you would likely have been laughed at. Yet, that's exactly what happened to the three-time world champion in Wisconsin. 111 had improved by the end of qualifications there, and will continue to improve in Chicago, so don't expect them to be spectating on Saturday afternoon again. 71 isn't the beast they used to be, but they captained the #5 alliance to the semi-finals at Crossroads and have a two-ball autonomous mode. While they won't be a shoo-in for a top alliance like they once were, they ended an extended drought in Midwest with a win last year and have the potential to do it again. Both the Hilltoppers and Winnovation will be looking to punch through in Chicago as well. 1732 hasn't won outside of Wisconsin since 2010. Despite four trips to the finals, 1625 hasn't won a regional at all since 2009.
- Week six is obviously the final chance for regional teams to qualify for St. Louis, but it can take on a slightly different form in district areas. While numerous teams will be fighting for enough points to reach their district championship event, there are also quite a few with two events already completed, and nothing on the line but pride and practice. Among these are 125 and 2648 at Pinetree, 1425, 1540, and 2811 at Oregon State, 67, 503, 1918, and 2474 at Lansing, 33, 469, and 2337 at Troy, and 68, 70, 494, 548, 862, and 1023 at Bedford. A lot of points are going to "vanish" from each district system thanks to these strong teams playing again, but bubble teams at each event will have to fight past them to earn points of their own.
- 910 represents an interesting scenario. They currently sit in 48th place in the FiM standings, with 76 points. With 64 teams qualifying for MSC, two of the DCA winners behind them in the standings, and 17 teams that earned more than 38 points at their first district playing for the second time this week, Foley Freeze is very much on the bubble of reaching Ypsilanti. They can't earn any points for themselves this weekend at Troy, but the points they can attempt to effectively remove points from the system. More importantly, any point they can stop 4779, 5053, 5193, 453, 3539, 4810, or 245 from earning will go a long way to helping them get in. Having third district powerhouses like the Killer Bees, Las Guerillas, and the Enginerds among the favorites at the event will also help them keep some serious alliance selection and tournament advancement points off the board. Granted, with a Buckeye regional victory, they already know their season isn't over.
- 1189 and 1641 are essentially in the same boat as Foley Freeze, but are competing in Bedford and they don't have a spot in St. Louis locked up already. Only about 50% of the district will still be eligible to earn FiM ranking points. 3175, 3773, and 4384 are the closest to qualification, earning 45, 42, and 41 points at their first events respectively. Each will need strong alliance partners to make a deep run again, and will need a solid elimination result to get the points they want. After only earning 31 points at GLBRD, 2834 is at risk of missing MSC for the first time in their history. Their best bet may be via a culture changing award at this point.
- The NC Gears have won at least one event every season since 2009, with a handful of additional finalist appearance on top of that. But so far in 2014, 1918 hasn't managed to escape the semi-finals. It be easy for them to get past 67, 74, 503, or 2474, but if they can align with one of the better teams at the event they should have a fighting chance at their first medal of the season.
- Aside of the nine teams competing at their third district, OSU will be about snagging some last minute points to qualify for PNW champs. 1425 was knocked out by Shockwave in the finals at Oregon City, but won Wilsonville by their side. They are easily the favorite going in, but finding someone that synergizes with their strange bot may prove to be difficult. 2811 has only gotten better each event, but they still have some kinks to work out. Both Storm and 1540 will benefit from the additional practice this weekend. 955 and 997 both showed fairly strong performances already, but the pressure is on. They are going to need every point if they want to ensure a district champ visit.
- Pine Tree is a mix of a tune-up for district champs for some and the last event for many teams to punch their ticket to the first ever NECMP. Look for teams 166, 133, 172, 319, 1071 and 4564 to fight hard for points. All of those teams have a solid foundation laid down, and with a strong Pine Tree performance can find themselves dancin' down in Boston next weekend. 58 comes into their 2nd district with one blue banner already under their belts. Back in week 2, the Riot Crew's beautifully crafted wooden bot was one of the most consistent scorers in NEFIRST this year. Infinite Loop, 2648 has come onto the national FRC scene strongly in the past couple of seasons. They improved greatly from their 1st to 2nd event in 2014, narrowly missing a blue banner. Look for them to continue to improve going into their 3rd district this year. 125 is competing for the 3rd weekend in a row. The past two weekends have gone well for the NUTRONs, emerging with win in Rhode Island and a perfect 18-0 record at their home NU district.
- Three teams will be unbagging in Maryland this weekend with gold medals earned this season as the final members of #1 alliances at other events. 229, 1610, and 4464 were all the last pick of previous alliance selections, and played complimentary roles in their alliance's victories. Each has some untapped potential they'll look to display at Chesapeake, and B.O.T. in particular stands a good chance at being selected a fair bit earlier than they were in Richmond.
- 233, 1111, and 2363 each had strong showings at their first event, but weren't able to earn a bid to compete in St. Louis. Both Pink and the Powerhawks seeded on top, with Pink being eliminated by the infamous red cards in Orlando and the Powerhawks falling in the North Carolina finals. Triple Helix's run as the #3 captain in Virginia was halted by a technical foul in SF2-3. 233 and 2363 are the two most proven finishers heading into the Chesapeake regional, and look like the favorites. 1111's well-rounded play should have no issue reaching the eliminations, but they may stand a bigger chance of earning a spot at Championship via a culture changing award.
- With a number of local teams having disappointing results at their initial event or competing for the first time this year (or even, in the case of the seven rookie teams), it's a few out of town teams are heading into New Orleans as the favorites. 2468 has already reached the finals twice this season in Texas, losing in San Antonio but coming out on top in Lubbock. 1730 was the 2nd overall selection in GKC, and played the power-forward role well for the semi-finalist alliance. 3937 was the top selection and champion at Razorback. It's Breakaway's opponents in the Arkansas finals, 2992 SS Prometheus, that's the best bet for keeping a winners banner in the bayou.
- In the sunny South Florida, 46 teams will battle it out in an attempt to reserve a spot at the world championship. The experienced twins 179 and 1251 are back for more after pairing up for a finals showings in Orlando, but they will have to continue monitoring their power consumption. 180 bested them to earn a blue banner, and it will be interesting to see if they can maintain that level of play. The three big names will have to go through the fast, reliable machines of teams 108, 744, 1065, 1523, and 3932 and the defense of 3653 and 4471 to earn a championship here.
- The Big Apple will once again host a big event, with sixty-six teams competing in one of the halls of the Javits Center. Despite being week six, many of these teams will be unbagging, or uncrating in the case of the teams from outside North America, for the first time this season. A number of others had less than convincing performances at their first event. Brazillians 1156 is the only team with a win already this season, and they did so as part of the #6 alliance in Long Island that bested 271. Typical contenders 694 and 375 will look to build off of QF exits as members of the #8 alliance earlier in the season. 4039 has the most established offensive potential by a healthy margin, and if they can align with good teams, they'll have a terrific chance at earning a bid to champs after their disappointing loss in the Waterloo semis.
- After claiming gold in Utah and reaching the finals in Denver in the past two years, Cougars Gone Wild look to be the top cats in Colorado this year. 2996 will have to secure some quality alliance partners to claim another medal, and 1987, 3200, 1619, and 3310 will all have a chance to give them a serious run for their money. In the end, this may be an event where three mid-tier teams can play smart and earn some banners.
- With only 36 teams, a full third of them being rookies, Western Canada is going to be an interesting challenge for the top seed. That's not to say all the rookies will struggle, as we've seen numerous young Canadian teams jump in feet first in recent years. Defending champions 1334 and 4334 stand a good chance at escaping the quarterfinals for the first time this season. 2013 also hasn't been able to reach the semi-finals this year, but the Cybergnomes will have a great shot at finally earning a regional victory.
- Between 2010 and 2013, the Simbots won all but one of the eleven regionals they attended, with the sole loss coming against OP Robotics in the finals. The last time 1114 failed to reach the finals at a regional event was the stunning quarter-final upset in the 2009 Midwest regional. To have 1114 fail to reach the finals at both of their events so far this year is astounding, regardless of the circumstances and controversy that surround their elimination. I wouldn't bet on Simbotics being eliminated early again in Windsor, but I wouldn't have bet on that at either of their prior events either.
- The legacy of the legendary Great Lakes regional has lived on into not only the Michigan State Championship that took it's place, but the multiple "Great Lakes" events that were born this year. While the Windsor Essex Great Lakes regional certainly isn't GLR, but there are several of Ontario's top dogs at the event. 2056's undefeated streak and 1114's contentious exits at previous events are the headlines, but both 1241 and 1285 have proven their ability to win with solid 1-2-3 alliances and aggressive defense. 781 could follow in those footsteps, as they've improved at each event and should be on one of the mid-seeded alliances. If 1114 and 2056 can finally form their signature alliance, it may be incredibly difficult to stop.
- With rumors of a California district system just around the corner, it seems like plenty of SoCal teams took the opportunity for a weekend in Vegas this year. 399, 1266, 1538, 1717, 2485, 3309, and 3476 will all be taking a trip up I-15N to join Utah champs 2122 and hometown favorites 987. The High Rollers have played in the last match of this regional every year since its inception in 2005, but they've rarely had to face such a deep crowd of rivals. Along with the WARLords and D'Penguineers, they should be one of the top few teams at the event, but there are plenty of scenarios in which an upset could happen here, especially if a team like the Holy Cows or Code Orange find their groove at the right moment.
- Heading into the finals of the 2013 GTR-West and DC regionals, it was known that all six teams in the finals would be able to attend championship thanks to the wild card system. The 2014 Silicon Valley regional stands poised to repeat that feat. Seven teams (254, 368, 766, 846, 971, 1678, and 2135) have already won a regional this season, with the Cheesy Poofs and Citrus Circuits taking two each. In order for either of them to join the Hawai'in Kids in the ranks of Aerial Assist triple winners, they will have to get past two teams heading into the event with undefeated 18-0 records. Neither Kiki Mana nor Spartan Robotics lost a match at their first event, with 971 handing 1678 their only loss so far on the season in Q66 at Davis. 1323, 852, 192, and 604 aren't to be overlooked either, but may have to hope to align with one of the powerhouses in order to reach the finals. The depth talent at SVR is paralleled by very few events, and any number of potential alliance combinations could emerge on top. If it plays like the west coast shootout it often does, expect some incredible scores from losing alliances. However, it might be the alliance that can slow down their opponent the most effectively that takes home gold.
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the always so humble metal-in-motion.....i know your tricks; you all are gonna have a killer robot as usual.... - Stephen Kowski [more] 
02-04-2014, 20:46
Montreal Regional Chairman's Award
Finger Lakes Regional Chairman's Award, Tech Valley EI
Boston Regional Winners with 125 and 126
Connecticut Regional Engineering Inspiration Award
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