FIRST in Michigan: 2014 MSC Preview

[FiM Informer]

Nothing had a bigger effect on FRC in Michigan this year more than the huge group of rookies. For the most part, these rookies were able to take part in the game; in fact 7 of them had strong enough robots to make it to MSC. And don’t let anyone qualify that with the Team Age Bonuses; 5 of those rookies would’ve made it anyway, including the 5th ranked team in the state, 4967.

Those rookies made life much tougher on the veterans. For the first time, MSC consists entirely of teams in the top quartile of the state, whereas when FiM began, almost the entire top half of teams made it to MSC.

The rookies did also make life a bit easier on the vets though, as the influx of generally less-competitive teams watered down the district events. Without fouls, the average Michigan qualification alliance scored 82 pts, while the worldwide average was 74 pts. Is the difference statistically significant? Yes. But it’s not actually significant. Overall, Michigan districts were around the level of the average regional.

The alliance dynamics of Aerial Assist played games with eliminations across the country, with many highly-seeded teams suffering so-called “Death by Serpentine.” This wasn’t as big a factor in Michigan, though lower seeded alliances did do better than usual. Top-three alliances still won 12 of 15 districts. The biggest difference was that the #2 alliance won just as many events as #1 this year.

This game also resulted in a wide variety of ways that alliances can win. Of the 90 district finalist spots (2*3*15), 70 unique teams played in district finals. The relative rarity of repeat finals appearances speaks to the wide-open nature of this game, where several alliances at any event have a chance to make the finals.

And yes, that statistic means a bunch of teams who played in the finals of a district didn’t even make it to MSC. What does that imply? Every MSC qualification match can be at the level of a district finals or even higher. Expect scores even bigger than the average Michigan district final: 135 points per alliance, including over 50 in auton.

With only one ball per alliance, every elite team has gotten used to playing defense, unlike most games where the greats would solely focus on offense. As a result, defense will ratchet up at MSC earlier than ever: Saturday afternoon might begin on Friday in Ypsilanti. In eliminations, strategies will be mostly unchanged and both offensive and defensive quality will improve. As a result, scores will see an uptick, but not a huge one. There is a potential for monstrous scores, and this will happen a few times, but overall elim matches will look like more polished qualifications.

In 2012, many teams were able to seed highly without a good robot simply by balancing on the coop bridge every time. This wasn’t true at MSC, because teams understood the importance of coop balancing and made sure it happened almost every match. While assisting is only a tiebreaker, it will still be heavily weighed, since most teams will end up tied with other teams in QS in the final standings.

Similar to 2012, I’d expect teams to go triple-assist in every match in an attempt to get the highest assist score (not to mention the 20 points of that third assist). When you look at district assist scores, you’ll note that the top teams are those who valued assists very highly. At four events, the top assisting team beat everybody else by at least 50 pts: 2337 at Kettering and Troy, 3322 at Livonia, and 27 at St Joe. With every team trying hard to get assists, these teams might be more practised, but they won’t necessarily be the best.

How the triple assists will be accomplished will vary. The most popular method in recent weeks has been an inbound, an assist, a truss to the HP, another inbound, and finally a shot. However, sticking to one strategy will make alliances too predictable. Teams are playing tougher inbound defense, but those defenders will get confused when the opposing alliance switches up their strategy. Dynamic strategies could become an absolute necessity in elimination series.

Playing elite defense might not take an elite robot, but it does take elite smarts. Like in any sport, FRC defense is about anticipation, knowing where your opponent is headed and getting to the spot first. Teams have finally begun doing this to block an initial inbound, but they can do better on goal-side HP inbounds and truss shots.

Teams can especially do better in blocking shooting positions. Many of Michigan’s best teams strongly prefer shooting from up close (862, 1918, Martians, etc., etc.), so it shouldn’t be too difficult to block them there. Other teams need to move a pickup or side shields out of the way to shoot, like 33 or 1023. Pushing those mechanisms back in (without causing damage, of course), will mess with accuracy and timing, and most teams - 33 being a rare exception - won’t see this coming at all. Some teams prefer to shoot while moving, others must be totally static. Upsets will come from teams that can identify their opponent’s weakness and exploit it.

Michigan Power Ranking

I polled 14 of FiM’s foremost experts and most well-known personalities to put together the 1st Annual Michigan Power Ranking. While all the teams listed here are great, none of them are perfect. Every team will hope to up their game at MSC.

• Team (#1 Votes) - Total Points - Discussion

1. 67 (9) - 185 - It’s no surprise to see HOT take the top spot in a landslide, as they’ve been the most consistently great robot thus far. When it comes to playing against defense, there’s no one better. However, they’ll need to work on their triple assisting to seed high and control their destiny.
2. 33 (1) - 115 - As usual, the Killer Bees looked like the best Michigan team in the early weeks, but as defense toughened up, they began to struggle with getting pushed around. Nice tricks and spins, plus a killer fadeaway, have mitigated the negative effects of their omni drive.
3. 2337 (1) - 99 - The EngiNERDs are one of 4 teams with 2 District Wins and a District Chairman’s Award, but they’re the most likely to pull off the double. They’ve been able to assist better than anybody in Michigan, perfecting the robot kiss and accumulating nearly 2000 assist points over 3 events. However, 2337 had auton and shooting problems as late as their third event, which could force them into picking a shooter come Saturday.
4. 3539 (1) - 91 - They’ve got the most accurate shot in Michigan, extremely precise with a high release point, which helps make their 3 ball auto the best in the world (sorry 33 and 254). At times, though, they’ve struggled to inbound effectively.
5. 107 (1) - 84 - One of only a few to win back-to-back districts in 2014, 107 executed on a really clean concept for their robot. They may have they’ve reached their performance ceiling at West Michigan, just shy of some other notables, but they’ll try to improve on that performance.
6. 1718 (1) - 83 - The Fighting Pi had highest OPR of any Michigan team, 150 at Waterford, where they also had over 1000 teleop points. While that suffices to show their raw scoring potential, it has to be said that the “teleop score” offense (quick cycles with few assists) isn’t going to fly at MSC. Pi will need to find their assisting touch to make a mark.
7. 469 - 74 - So far, Las Guerrillas have been far too unreliable to be a top contender, with a shot that has to be described as unrepeatable. That inconsistency was reflected in the votes, as they were placed really high and really low by various voters. It has to be said, though, that 469 has the potential to be great at every aspect of this game, and therefore they have the highest ceiling of any Michigan team. The Guerrillas often reach peak performance at MSC, so watch out.
8. 27 - 54 - The RUSHian visit to MN had a big impact. They got some good practise before coming to Howell, where they were one of the best teams, and they also brought the truss-to-HP strategy with them. Finally, winning CA in MN opens up a state CA spot for a newer team.
9. 2137 - 50 - One of two teams (along with 74) to seed first at both district events and fail to reach the finals. TORC has one of the simpler bots out there, but just couldn’t seem to find the play to move on when defense picked up
10. 1918 - 42 - They have a pickup so unobtrusive, you hardly notice it among the other features of this very cool and unique robot. Of course, they don’t even really need the pickup with how well they inbound.

Honorable Mentions (in no particular order)

• 1023 - They don’t have the most repeatable shot, but Bedford has an all-around solid robot and great drivers, as they move around the field very easily, avoid defense pretty well, and make their shots on the move most of the time.
• 494/70 - For the first time since the 2008 West Michigan Regional, the Martian teams joined forces in eliminations. This time, it went better than back then, though they still lost in the Bedford finals. The Martians each sport two ball autos, an accurate short-range shot, and lots of experience with the truss shot to their human players.
• 2054 - The only team to win both of their districts, and one of the few teams to catch well enough to make it worth the time, I’m surprised the Tech Vikes didn’t make the top 10. They have a all around great robot (pickup, catching, shooting) and are no strangers to the finals of MSC, having made the last couple.
• 910 - The Foley Freeze will play more events this season than any other Michigan team, having already played 4, with booked tickets to the CMP from winning at Buckeye. They started their season a bit slow, but really ramped up their capability by Troy.
• 314 - Big MO has been steadily improving over the past few years. This year they finally got a blue banner (three, in fact!) with a powerful shooter that was the talk of build season. However, lack of strong ball control will hurt them with the smarter defense and greater depth they’re about to face.
• 862 - They were among the best teams at all 3 of their events, and they were one of 5 teams who played in 3 finals, but Lightning was the only one to only win one of them. Though theirs is probably the smallest shot range of any great team, with their good drivers and dynamic match strategy, 862 will still compete.
• 503 - Frog Force are back to doing well, after years of mediocrity, with a Simbot SS inspired robot they has improved event-by-event and earned them their first event win since 2008.
• 4967 - With the perfectly simple rookie robot, 4967 captained an alliance to gold in their first ever event. Though their bid to break 2056’s streak ended at West Michigan, this ONE team is the best of all the rookies at MSC and should be the favorite to get Highest Rookie Seed and make some noise in the elims.

The Magic 8-Ball

Like every event this year, low-seeded alliances have a better chance than usual to move on in the eliminations. This could be aided by MSC’s depth. because even though there are 64 good robots at the event, the above 19 teams (plus a couple that went unmentioned) form an upper tier of great robots. If this remains static, a low-seeded alliance will get 3 great robots, while a top alliance will have to “settle” for a good robot as their third. Of course, those top alliances will have a couple of the truly elite teams, those in or around the experts’ top 5, which will make things very interesting.

That’s assuming teams don’t change from their last event. With the huge pool of good teams, it’s very likely a half dozen of them make the jump from good to great, making MSC a battle between the top few alliances. In fact, that’s exactly the way I see it going. It’ll be just like a district, 80% chance it goes to a top-3 alliance, but #2 has just as much of a shot as #1. A lower seed winning would be entirely unprecedented, as a top-2 alliance has won every MSC in history.

All the teams named above are great, and they’re each very likely to make the eliminations (wouldn’t be surprised if a couple missed the cut). But probably only two or three of them will win the State Championship. With a variety of skills and skill levels, not to mention the event-to-event improvements of the teams, it’d be nearly impossible to guess the Michigan State Champions ahead of time. To help me in this task, I’m calling in the Magic 8-Ball.

Oh Magic 8-Ball, who’s going to win MSC?

“Ask again next week.”

...you know, I think this thing is being purposefully uncooperative.

[IKE]

Enjoyable read. Please pass the 8 ball to an inspector.


Magic 8-Ball: We will see dead robots from agrressive impacts?

shake shake shake

"signs point to yes"....

Make sure you check your connection thoroughly and frequently. Its going to be a rough weekend.

And remember folks call (for disable) before you dig.

This has been a public service anouncement of your LRI Union Local 3330847030963618

[jlmcmchl]

Originally Posted by IKE

Magic 8-Ball: We will see dead robots from agrressive impacts?

shake shake shake

"signs point to yes"....

Something tells me this Magic 8 balls isn't going to give you the answer you want...

[P.J.]

Originally Posted by FiM Informer

But probably only two or three of them will win the State Championship.

I would be quite surprised if more than three of them won the State Championship

[Chris Hibner]

Originally Posted by IKE

Make sure you check your connection thoroughly and frequently. Its going to be a rough weekend.

We learned that one in Waterford. Our robot acted weird for two matches in a row so we pulled off the cover and found the power leads on three speed controllers came unplugged from the impacts. Good thing we have so many redundant motors. Ever since then our pre-match checklist now includes pressing all speed controller leads back on before every match.

[FIMAlumni]

Some stats from day 1 from FRC Spyder.
High Score: 251 (Q-16) (548, 1718, 2960)
High Combined Score: 439 (Q-9) (469, 3098, 4362 vs 1023, 2771, 3688)
Avg win score 174.06
Avg loose score 131.03
Highest OPR: 146.23 (573)