Predictions Week 7: District Championship Weekend

[Adam Freeman]

Excellent analysis as always.

I haven't seen 4967 play, but I can say that 5162 is the real deal based on the performance we saw in Lansing.

They bring and experienced drive coach (former 2054 driver) and a very 2054-like robust robot.

I am expecting that they will be one of the 24 teams playing on Saturday afternoon at MSC.

[Navid Shafa]

I'd like to give a shout-out to my favorite rookie this year: 4911.

At their first event, not only did they win, but they received Engineering Inspiration! They were the highest rookie seed at all 3 events, and won both a Rookie All Star and Rookie Inspiration award. The robot itself is rather simple, but they know how to drive it. I'm excited to see how they do this weekend and in the years to come.

[cadandcookies]

Originally Posted by Navid Shafa

I'd like to give a shout-out to my favorite rookie this year: 4911.

At their first event, not only did they win, but they received Engineering Inspiration! They were the highest rookie seed at all 3 events, and won both a Rookie All Star and Rookie Inspiration award. The robot itself is rather simple, but they know how to drive it. I'm excited to see how they do this weekend and in the years to come.

I'd agree with this-- I have no connection with PNW except for one of the students I've been talking to on this team. They might be a rookie team, but they certainly "get it"-- both on and off the field.

[Thad House]

Originally Posted by cadandcookies

I'd agree with this-- I have no connection with PNW except for one of the students I've been talking to on this team. They might be a rookie team, but they certainly "get it"-- both on and off the field.

From what I heard, they were actually the FTC world finalists last year and moved to FRC this year. So they have the experience and sustainability in FIRST. I bet they could have won Chairman's had FIRST allowed rookie teams to apply.

It's great to see all these up and coming teams in the PNW. The next few years, I think we are going to see some amazing growth, and I cannot wait to see what it brings.

[Navid Shafa]

Originally Posted by Thad House

From what I heard, they were actually the FTC world finalists last year and moved to FRC this year.

Yep, FTC 3717.

Originally Posted by Thad House

So they have the experience and sustainability in FIRST. I bet they could have won Chairman's had FIRST allowed rookie teams to apply.

Taken from the Chairman's description:

"The Chairman’s Award is presented to the team judged to have the most significant and measurable impact of its partnerships among its participants, among its school, and its community over a sustained period; not just a single season or school year."

Award Criteria includes these points:
...

• Describe the impact of the FIRST program on team participants with special emphasis on the current season and the preceding two to five years
• Describe the impact of the FIRST program on your community with special emphasis on the current season and the preceding two to five years
• Describe the strength of your partnership with your sponsors with special emphasis on the 2013/2014 year and the preceding two to five years

...

These specific criteria would certainly make it difficult, but not impossible to surpass older teams in these categories. However, ShockWave is a perfect example that these aren't limiting factors, it's certainly about quality not necessarily quantity. It is an intriguing prospect, I would be curious if you can take into consideration previous work as a collective 'team', not including FRC. I can't find any documentation or criteria that regulates this. If you can take into account previous 'team' activity, then it's very possible they could have had a shot at it, especially while going to 3 districts this year. We'll never know, but perhaps we'll find out next year if they really are at that level.

[Gdeaver]

INTENSITY, That's all I have to say about this weekend.

[4911 BR]

Originally Posted by Navid Shafa

I'd like to give a shout-out to my favorite rookie this year: 4911.

At their first event, not only did they win, but they received Engineering Inspiration! They were the highest rookie seed at all 3 events, and won both a Rookie All Star and Rookie Inspiration award. The robot itself is rather simple, but they know how to drive it. I'm excited to see how they do this weekend and in the years to come.

Thanks for the "shout-out", it was really cool to come across the kind words about our team. I am one of the engineering mentors on 4911. It's true that our team has a lot of FTC experience, but for me it is all new, I had never heard of first robotics until last November when the team coach asked me if I would like to help out. it's been an awesome experience, I can't wait to see what St. Louis is like

[MisterJ]

Great analysis. I agree with 2590 being the favorite at MAR CMP this year, but disagree about the narrow margin. I think Nemesis is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field, especially as perennial powerhouses like 341 and 11 start to slip. This is 2590's event to lose. Daisy's been a defensive force like you said, but I'd expect them to get a more consistent shooter working tomorrow.

303 is an interesting bot, which has put up high scores in qualifying rounds, but has been shut down as the top-scorer of a few relatively-weak elimination alliances. It'll be interesting to see what they can do if allied with some above-average machines.

If Nemesis has a challenger for #1, it's probably TechFire. 225, which didn't even reach a finals until 2013 (when they won at Chestnut Hill) but has taken home three blue banners since, has outdone their 2013 FCS with a flimsy-looking, but scary-quick-and-accurate high-goal scorer. They can truss, catch, and score and their numbers at both Lenape and DC are fantastic.

Keep and eye on 1218 and 365, too. 1218 has made a habit of drastically improving in their second competition (their OPR more-than-doubled this year) and MoE did the same. More improvements are expected.

I've like 25's bot too - a dedicated catcher is rare. (Stop to brag - my team was the first to toss a caught shot to 25 this year.) They'll be in elimination rounds barring a complete failure and they can play an interesting role.

Finally 222, 1640, 1647, 56 are machines to watch. Some sleepers in the field may be 304 with their great auto, 1923 who always seems to come to play late in the season, rookie 5113, the barely-in-the-field 1712 which is a great defensive and low-goal machine, and 1403 who was mentioned on the FRCTop25 show.

Good luck to 433, 1218, 2590, and the other District Chairman's winners. These teams could seriously contend for the national award.

[Akash Rastogi]

Originally Posted by MisterJ

Great analysis. I agree with 2590 being the favorite at MAR CMP this year, but disagree about the narrow margin. I think Nemesis is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field, especially as perennial powerhouses like 341 and 11 start to slip. This is 2590's event to lose. Daisy's been a defensive force like you said, but I'd expect them to get a more consistent shooter working tomorrow.

Funny how these three ended up on the same alliance

[MisterJ]

Originally Posted by Akash Rastogi

Funny how these three ended up on the same alliance

I noticed that. 11 and 341, as many would expect, got better and better during each competition. Daisy had maybe the best intake at MAR CMP by the end. The finals were fantastic! (What kept happening to 341?)

The number of really strong teams that finished well south of the top-8 ranks (341, 316, 11, 75, 303, 193, 1676, 484, 357, 869, 1923 - they all finished 21st or lower) made for some really interesting alliance selections. That's the reason that Nemesis was able to select such a high-powered alliance, even picking from the 7th spot.

It was funny watching 2590 make their second selection. Their team rep started looking down at his notes when he got a call from the sidelines and a big whiteboard held up by a teammate with "341" in massive red letters. No second thought needed.

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by Akash Rastogi

Funny how these three ended up on the same alliance

You shoulda heard the NUTRONS when we heard that Nemesis picked up NUTRONS Beta and Daisy from 7... It was pretty crazy.

[scottandme]

Originally Posted by Akash Rastogi

Funny how these three ended up on the same alliance

Looking Forward paid me $10 to make sure that the predictions held up.

[Chris is me]

I feel like anyone surprised with 341's performance clearly didn't watch Finger Lakes. They were one of the top 3 finishers at the event, with reasonable consistency from in front of the 1 point goal. As most teams have learned at this point, it's really the only place it's important to be able to shoot in the high goal from, as it isn't vulnerable to defense. Daisy's strategic flexibility and ability to play multiple roles on the fly will serve them well at the Championship.

2590 / 11 / 341 was a phenomenal alliance, and the whole managed to be even better than the sum of its parts. Expect alliances similar to this one to be on Einstein - low seeds of three great teams beating out pairs of powerhouses with more rigid strategies.