paper: 2014 Team 1114 Championship Scouting Database

[Karthik]

Thread created automatically to discuss a document in CD-Media.

2014 Team 1114 Championship Scouting Database by Karthik

[Karthik]

Attached is the 2014 Team 1114 Championship Database. This year's database includes full results for every team who competed in the 2014 season. We've based this version on the current divisions posted at usfirst.org. If these change we will update accordingly. (However if it's just a couple of additions, we may not release a new version)

The database includes:
-An interface to allow you pull an individual team's record
-Full listing of awards, record & finish
-Team scoring averages
-Total "OPR" as well as Assist, Auto and Truss+Catch “OPR”. These calculations use linear algebra to determine what a team's average input to their alliance was at each regional. (Only using qualifying match results)
-A master sheet for a sortable comparison of all FIRST teams
-Master sheets for each division and full divisional assignments
-A quick Divisional Stats Summary
-New this year, “Calculated World District-System Ranking”

Calculated World District-System Ranking, uses the universal district point system to calculate a team’s ranking based on qualification W-L-T results, alliance selection, elimination finish, and awards. Full details about the scoring system can be found here.

A few things to note when reviewing the “Calculated World District-System Ranking” results

-The results, draft, win-loss, and award points are normalized to 2 events since the district system only counts points from the first two events (ie. If you only attend one event and lost in the semi finals as a first round pick you would receive 2*10/1 elim points; 2 events * total elim points / number of regionals attended)
-The Win-Loss points was normalized to 12 matches per event (ie. If you win 8 matches at an event where only 10 matches were played, you would receive 2*12*8/10 points; 2 points for a win * 12 matches * winning percentage)
-All District Champsionship Data has been excluded as we feel this would hurt the normalized points for teams competing at these events as it is more difficult to obtain points due to stronger competition
-District Chairman’s Award, Engineering Inspiration, and Rookie All-Star has been treated like a regular regional, and have been listed in the Auto Qualify for World column

Some of this is comparing apples to oranges, so it's important to keep the following things in mind as well

-Weak teams that only attended one event and "get lucky" by making it to the finals would have inflated numbers, as their "result" numbers were doubled to be normalized to two events. It is unlikely had they attended a second event their results would have been as favorable and therefore would have likely had less total result points
-Conversely a strong team that attends three events and gets "upset" in the semi finals at their third event would have deflated numbers as only the points from their first two events would have counted in the district system and they would have had higher total result points
-Teams that attend smaller and/or weaker regionals will have inflated numbers as it is easier to obtain points
-Teams that attend larger and/or more competitive regionals will have deflated numbers as it is more difficult to obtain points

The data we have was all mined from the FIRST website. There may be some errors, but I'm confident the data is 97.1114% accurate. That being said, much of the alliance selection results were obtained via word of mouth, so there may be some errors.

Prior to 2008 we never released any of our regression analysis (OPR) that we had been doing since 2004. Since people have become more knowledgeable on the subject we decided to make the change. Please do not take a poor score as a slight or an insult. We simply used the actual scores from matches to perform a calculation. We feel that this tool is the best available metric if you are unable to watch the actual matches. Since none of us can attend every regional, it should be a valuable tool. However, as discussed in many places on these forums, OPR is definitely not a magic stat, or dominating predictor of success. Use with caution.

Thanks to Geoff Allan, Ben Bennett and Roberto Rotolo of Team 1114 Stats and Research for creating this year's database. Thanks to all on Chief Delphi who helped with the alliance selection results that are used within this database.

If you have any questions, please ask.

[pwnageNick]

Always grateful for when 1114 releases their scouting database. Thanks to everyone who makes it happen each and every year!

[Michael Hill]

97.1114% accurate, huh? quite significant significant digits

[Bill_B]

Now there is a reputation worthy of note: over 600 downloads in under 7 hours. We cannot thank the compilers enough for their diligence. It won't stop me from trying.
Thank you! (in this case take the "!" at its mathematical meaning)

[Chris Fultz]

Karthik -

For Indiana, we rationalized the qualification points to a 12 match schedule by using % wins. Dose this database do that - some regionals are as low as 9 matches.


My Bad - I didn't read enough of the fine print ....

[AllenGregoryIV]

Originally Posted by Chris Fultz

Karthik -

For Indiana, we rationalized the qualification points to a 12 match schedule by using % wins. Dose this database do that - some regionals are as low as 9 matches.

I'm pretty sure this is the same thing, right?

Originally Posted by Karthik

-The Win-Loss points was normalized to 12 matches per event (ie. If you win 8 matches at an event where only 10 matches were played, you would receive 2*12*8/10 points; 2 points for a win * 12 matches * winning percentage)

[pntbll1313]

Thank you so much for posting Karthik! Quite a bit of my non-video scouting is already complete for me now I had also planned on making a column in my spreadsheet about how each team qualified (the idea being that a team qualifying by being first pick and winning a regional is generally a very different robot than a rookie All Star winner that was not selected for elims). Of course that is very surface level and there are a lot of more important factors that I'll use first.

[Jorge Ayala]

I must say, thank you for sharing this!

[teku14]

Where do you guys get access to this data such as assist OPR and auto OPR?

[Ether]

Originally Posted by teku14

Where do you guys get access to this data such as assist OPR and auto OPR?

Team Standings.

Example:

http://www2.usfirst.org/2014comp/eve.../rankings.html

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh....php?p=1370440

[mwtidd]

This is awesome. Is there any way you could add the tele stats as well?