2014 Curie Division

[Jared]

Originally Posted by Koko Ed

Yeah, not so crazy about Jared's predictions but we exceeded the predictions last year so we'll see if we can do it again this year.

I wouldn't count on almost any of these being at all accurate, but it is fun to look at. The score an alliance will get will also depend on the alliance it is facing, which isn't taking into account with OPR.

Originally Posted by XaulZan11

You mean there is no correlation between a teams' OPR and their ability to seed in the top 8.

Magnets is right in saying that, for this prediction only and not in real matches, that OPR is a team's ability to contribute points for an alliance. However, even though it's not perfect, there is still a correlation between matches won and ability to contribute points. Look at Joel's graph or the graph in my spreadsheet and you'll see that, in general, teams that can score more, will seed higher, which makes a lot of sense. Of course there will be exceptions, but teams will be scouting to look for good teams seeded low.

[Mullen]

Originally Posted by XaulZan11

(There are far too many people concerned with OPR and spending far too much time analyzing, adjusting OPR to show various things and make predictions. OPR is good for a very quick reference when you have no other information about a team. If you are spending more than 15 minutes on OPR, I suggest you actually watch matches of teams. You will get a far better picture of who is good and who isn't. Better yet, you will find what their strengths/weakness are.)

Agreed. OPR may be good to glance at, but isn't really a good predictor of records. Strategy, especially in this game, can throw OPR out the door. Going into MSC, we were expected to 3-9 based on OPR. After going 3-0 on day 1, Spyder predicted we would go 12-0. we ended with a final qualification record of 7-5.

[stingray27]

Originally Posted by XaulZan11

(There are far too many people concerned with OPR and spending far too much time analyzing, adjusting OPR to show various things and make predictions. OPR is good for a very quick reference when you have no other information about a team. If you are spending more than 15 minutes on OPR, I suggest you actually watch matches of teams. You will get a far better picture of who is good and who isn't. Better yet, you will find what their strengths/weakness are.)

I completely agree on this. NEVER base your decisions on OPR values. Use them to get a quick glance at an upcoming match, or to give your drivers a head start on who to start looking at for match strategy, etc. But that should be it.

I just run the numbers cause it is a mental challenge, it is interesting to look at, and it gives other people stuff to look at too. I don't think my team has ever used OPR during selection.

[Abhishek R]

I'm sure that those who are running these OPR predictions know that OPR is not the end-all in terms of the actual ranking, and are mostly doing this to occupy them with the statistics before we get to CMP. According to the graph, the general trend is that the better teams will still seed higher, and it's a known factor that schedules can swing teams around. I wouldn't put too much weight on the predictions, though they are interesting to look at.

[XaulZan11]

Originally Posted by Abhishek R

I'm sure that those who are running these OPR predictions know that OPR is not the end-all in terms of the actual ranking, and are mostly doing this to occupy them with the statistics before we get to CMP.

Agreed. My mini-rant was more directed at some of the newer people (in many threads) who were making sweeping generalizations based on OPR without really understanding it isn't perfect. Most of the people (which I do appreciate) doing the calculations understand it, but there are many that take the results a step too far. I really don't intend to start a back and forth on OPR as that has been done several times...



I'm glad Frank explained how teams got placed in divisions. If not, I would has thought their goal was to confuse everyone by putting 2468, 2478, 2648, 2848 and 2928 in the same division.

[joelg236]

Originally Posted by magnets

1/2 of the top 8 scoring robots will not end up in the top 8. The 29th best robot places 5th, the third best robot places 10th, and the 5th best places 17th.

2nd highest OPR (us) places 18th. I think we have the worst statistical schedule out there. I'm not concerned though, a lot of our matches could go both ways easily.

[JohnFogarty]

A lot of our OPR based woes involved huge intake and ball control issues. Which we have made huge progress on since Orlando if I do say so myself.

Along with a terrible statistical schedule at Palmetto, and a average/moderately difficult one at Orlando.

I'll take strategy anyday over OPR.

[Nyxyxylyth]

At MSC, lowest OPR losing (single bot) was a lot more accurate than highest alliance OPR winning.

WTT: my FRC free corn dog for video footage of 2013 Cybergnomes [edit:At WCR]

[Jared Russell]

Originally Posted by Nyxyxylyth

WTT: my FRC free corn dog for video footage of 2013 Cybergnomes.

http://www.thebluealliance.com/team/2013

PAY UP

[Nyxyxylyth]

Originally Posted by Jared Russell

http://www.thebluealliance.com/team/2013

PAY UP

Okay you can have my son's... but I was really hoping for some video of whatever happened at the Western Canada elims. Looks like the espresso really kicked in from those scores.

[JohnFogarty]

Originally Posted by Jared Russell

http://www.thebluealliance.com/team/2013

PAY UP

Some corndogs were lost on this day.

[iVanDuzer]

Originally Posted by Nyxyxylyth

WTT: my FRC free corn dog for video footage of 2013 Cybergnomes [edit:At WCR]

ALSO: here are all of their matches so far this season. You have to actually "find" them by typing in their team number on the left.

[Yipyapper]

Originally Posted by Nyxyxylyth

Okay you can have my son's... but I was really hoping for some video of whatever happened at the Western Canada elims. Looks like the espresso really kicked in from those scores.

There was defense there, but 2013 and 4334 just were so far and above the competition that them teaming up was a foregone conclusion. Really happy for both teams--4334 is already 2nd in OPR in the toughest division and won a chairman's this year. Powerhouse team if I ever saw one.

[Nyxyxylyth]

Originally Posted by iVanDuzer

ALSO: here are all of their matches so far this season. You have to actually "find" them by typing in their team number on the left.

Nice... I hadn't ever looked there after all that #omgyoustoleourvideos controversy. I sure couldn't find it anywhere else.

@Jared, Ian: I'll see if I can track you fellas down and get you those corn dogs

[cbudrecki]

So, now the FIRST has released Match Schedules, how do you see things going down? What matches are you looking forward to?

I think Curie 120 will be pretty amazing... 222 with 125 going up against 11... yeah, should be a good one.