Galileo 2014

[Laaba 80]

Originally Posted by inkling16

I have created an alternate strength of schedule calculation. Essentially, it is the minimum OPR required of a team to go 8-2 in qualifications.

For me personally, I don't really care about rank unless the rank is <12. Since teams with records 8-2 or better will likely exclusively make up this group, I created a metric to see how hard it would be for a given team to achieve this record. Unsurprisngly, if this value is less than a team's OPR, then they are predicted to go 8-2 or better. If this value is greater than a team's OPR, then they can know approximately how hard they will have to work to go 8-2 or better.

team #	OPR required to go 8-2
1610	35.2
3138	48.1
5148	48.6
2980	52.8
3309	54.5
353	55.7
4945	58.7
494	60.5
4719	63.7
1310	67.1
4967	68
1318	70.1
45	70.3
3098	71.1
4965	71.2
3480	71.5
365	72.5
1108	73.4
4982	73.7
3504	77
3683	77.3
1266	78
4488	78
4991	78
714	80
1683	80.4
973	82.3
5098	82.8
3191	83.6
4060	85.1
3103	85.5
5012	85.6
176	85.8
228	88.5
862	89.6
1515	90.6
4176	91.5
869	93.8
1730	95.7
1218	95.8
2471	96
67	97.6
1775	98.3
79	98.6
2642	98.9
1717	99.7
5145	100.1
836	100.6
2122	100.7
4979	100.7
558	100.9
1334	101.2
188	101.7
2052	102
3008	102.4
126	104.9
3360	105.7
604	106.1
4940	108.1
2481	108.3
2665	108.5
217	108.9
2337	108.9
2424	109.2
884	109.5
1756	110.3
4985	110.4
488	110.8
2974	111.8
70	114.7
1023	118
4063	119
1011	119.1
5122	121.4
766	123
2177	123.1
4476	123.9
3316	126.5
2135	126.6
5137	126.9
2363	127.2
4917	127.2
955	128.1
857	130.5
4288	131
771	131.8
1153	132.2
3937	133.3
5320	133.3
193	133.4
225	135.5
179	137
303	138.3
148	141.4
3310	142
337	143.4
4256	144.8
4536	145.7
1885	150.1
384	154.6

average = 100.8
standard deviation = 26.5

Wow. The difference from top to bottom is insane. Could you provide any more info about your process to get these numbers? When you are looking at team X, do you use max/world OPR for opponent Y's OPR, or is Y's OPR also based off what it takes to reach 8-2. This is a very interesting way to think about things, thanks for sharing it.