Predictions Championship 2014: The Grand Finale & Top 25

[Looking Forward]

Aerial Assist provided another season full of tribulations for all of the FRC community, and many of the finest among us have endured to reach St. Louis and the crown jewel of the FIRST season, the championship event. All the hardship and heartbreak of the nearly 100 districts, regionals, and district championships this season will lead up the triumphant joy experienced by just four teams.


The divisions are essentially as well balanced as they are in any given year. No one division is overwhelmingly shallow or deep, even if they aren't perfectly equitable. There are enough quality teams in each division to fill out the 32 elimination openings with highly functional teams (provided, of course, that alliance captain scouting is up to snuff). The Einstein winner could very easily come from any of the four fields, especially given that Aerial Assist is less about throwing three superstars on the same alliance than many previous games.

While role players are certainly a very important factor in Aerial Assist, generally speaking the roles are more interchangable than some previous games. While finishing robots may not be as practiced or effective as trussing, especially if it involves tagging up for a white zone assist or getting the ball to the human player, as some of the midfield specialists, they can still execute the role in a pinch. As such, the individual style of gameplay on each field will be determined less by machine capibilities (as it was in years like 2007 and 2013) and more by the attitudes of drive teams and the officiating crew. The differences in how each head ref calls their respective field will have significant impact on how that division plays. There's a lot of individual judgement involved in possession and fouls this year, and differences in the interpretation and application of rules like G12, G27, and G28 will surely lead to more controversy and make the question box a popular destination. However, when is the question box not busy during championship eliminations?

The additional round of alliance selection has the potential to change the dynamic of the tournament. Endurance and survival will still be a critical factor in winning, but being able to select your own back-up may allow for some timely repairs at crucial junctions. IRI has used this format since 2007, and not a ton of substitutions happen there, but it only takes three rounds of eliminations to win in Indianapolis as opposed to the five it takes to claim Einstein gold. One would be hard pressed to find an alliance that survived even three rounds without at least one team who wished they could have some extra time to repair a robot or tweak autonomous code in the slugfest that is Aerial Assist. Given the rough-and-tumble nature of the game, it will be interesting to see how alliance captains approach the later segments of the draft, opting for one or more role players that could change the dynamic of an alliance (like pass-through inbounders, catchers, goalies, field-clearing fullbacks, or hail mary trussers) or if they'll opt for a reliable back-up that can substitute in for any broken machine. One thing's certain, even with the elimination field expanding by 33%, there will still be some great teams left watching from the stands.

Much like recent seasons, autonomous is going to be huge. However, this year the maximum points achievable has been obtained fairly frequently by a number of different alliances, and the lack of additional game pieces to be scored creates diminishing returns on the ability to score multiple balls in autonomous as the ability of your alliance partners increases. This year, the penalty for failing in autonomous is almost as important as the reward for success. Unless goalie poles transition from the realm of the hypothetical to reality, multi-ball autonomous modes, especially those that don't feature multiple hot goals, will not be a governing factor in the success of most elimination alliances. Alliances that have effective goaltending mechanisms could change this dynamic, by encouraging their partners to use multi-ball autonomous modes and discouraging the opponent from doing so (unless they shoot from a position the goalie cannot block or is prevented from blocking). While several teams have aspirations of adding goalie posts, very few teams attending championship have used them already, and those that have did not make them a hallmark of their strategy.

Expect the game play for most matches to be like it was during much of weeks 6 and 7. Anything predictable will be defended, and inbounders will likely have to do more than just sit by the feeder station for an alliance to be successful. Smart and fluid play will be important, especially as defense continues to be one of the more effective ways for an alliance to distinguish itself from its opponent. The eliminations will be intense and hard fought, and the teams that can best endure the grind over those 140 seconds will usually come out on top.

A panel of FRC veterans and experts were polled to help create a Top 25 list after the regional season. Twenty ballots were collected from some of FIRST's most respected minds, including Woodie Flowers finalists, former FRC champions, respected FRC commentators, and mentors of Hall of Fame teams.

A quick word about formatting to help you understand and interpret the rankings. The first number, which follows the #, is the ranking. A "#T-" indicates a tied ranking. The second number, in bold, is the team number. If a number in parenthesis follows, it's indicating the amount of first place votes the team received. If there's no parenthesized number, the team received zero first place votes. The number in brackets is the total number of points the team received from all twenty ballots.

#1. 254 (17) [497] - This dominant scoring machine won three events, including the uber-competitive Waterloo and Silicon Valley regionals
#2. 971 (2) [418] - Slick robot that compiled an unblemished 35-0 record across two regional events
#3. 1114 (1) [395] - Simbot Evolution was the only robot selected ahead of the Poofs this season, and managed to punch through for a win at Windsor-Essex after two earlier semi-final disappointments
#4. 2056 [386] - Orchard Park extended their perfect regional win streak to 19 with a machine capable of executing any role on an alliance
#5. 67 [382] - HOT's phenomenal cycle finishing machine reached the finals at all four events they attended, winning twice
#6. 118 [365] - The Robonauts won three regional competitions as members of the #1 alliance for the second consecutive year
#7. 33 [330] - The Killer Bees took home five banners, including three victories, from their four events this season and have one of the better long-range scorers in FRC
#8. 1986 [320] - Titanium has had more than a month to lick their wounds after two hard-fought victories at early-season events
#9. 1678 [306] - The Citrus Circuits are the most proven elimination mid-fielder around, earning two golds and a silver playing while tagging for the white zone assist
#10. 16 [259] - The Bomb Squad predictably came out on fire in a game seemingly tailored to their swerve drive and catapult strengths
#11. 987 [256] - After a win and finalist appearance in two events, the High Rollers are looking to get back to Einstein for the third time in four years
#12. 148 [242] - Another season, another set of Texas medals for the Robowranglers, who picked up two golds and a silver
#13. 624 [209] - After missing last year, CRyptonite earned their way back to Championship in week one with a win in Alamo, and followed it up with two more strong performances later in the season
#14. 469 [204] - Less hardware than expected this season for Las Guerillas, but their quick intake, long-range bomb, and defensive tenacity make them a backfield terror
#15. 368 [181] - Kika Mana returned to FRC in style, with a wonderfully engineered swerving machine that's pure joy to watch on the field
#16. 2485 [151] - The WARLords claimed a gold and silver combination for the second straight year, and their drivetrain and scoring ability will make them a force to be reckoned with
#17. 27 [139] - After knocking on the door all season long, RUSH broke through with a win in Ypsilanti
#18. 359 [138] - After their third regional event win of the season in week five, the Hawaiin Kids joined Simbotics and OP Robotics as the only teams to accomplish that feat more than once. The Robonauts joined the club the following week.
#19. 1625 [127] - Very few teams can get the ball from one human player to the next as quickly as Winnovation
#20. 4488 [120] - Shockwave won two districts and reached the PNW champ finals as second year competitors
#21. 610 [110] - The Coyotes won multiple events in the same season for the first time in their history
#22. 195 [103] - Southington can play Aerial Assist as fast as any team out there, and accumulated a 32-4 in qualifications this season as a result
#23. 177 [98] - Only the 2006 Bobcats rival what the 2014 team has accomplished prior to championship, which is good news considering the Bobcats' Einstein streak started that season
#24. 1718 [89] - The Fighting Pi didn't have to wait nearly as long for another event victory, picking up gold in Waterford before seeding #1 at MSC
#25. 3539 [74] - With a three-ball autonomous and high-release point, the Byting Bulldogs are likely the best team in FRC without an event victory in 2014

Spoiler for Others Receiving Votes:

4039 68
125 66
2590 60
180 39
233 34
1477 33
1241 27
3683 27
1717 25
188 24
20 23
2337 21
1507 19
179 19
330 19
842 14
1983 12
25 9
2451 9
2122 8
1918 6
1285 5
3476 5
2363 4
1538 4
973 4
2137 3
225 3
2283 3
4334 2
3467 2
4522 1
1772 1
1310 1
1126 1

Each division will have it's own prediction thread posted tomorrow, but here's a layout of how they will work. "Tips", "locks", "dark horses", and "sleepers" will be named for each division. In this context a tip is a team to watch, with a solid chance of going deep. A lock is a team that's guaranteed to do well, with a 50% chance or better of making the divisional finals. A dark horse is a team that has played very well all year but hasn't generated a lot of attention and stands a strong chance to surprise a lot of people. Sleepers are teams that have shown flashes of brilliance but haven’t been able to put it all together yet, but have some potential to shine in St. Louis if they can play well. As always, if you don't like the predictions, go out there and prove them wrong.

[notmattlythgoe]

Thanks to those who voted for us. It is always a great feeling when you are recognized by your peers. We look forward to competing at St. Louis and showing what we can do.

[David8696]

Originally Posted by notmattlythgoe

Thanks to those who voted for us. It is always a great feeling when you are recognized by your peers. We look forward to competing at St. Louis and showing what we can do.

*cmd-c cmd-v*
Literally, word-for-word, my thoughts. Thanks for saving me keystrokes.

[MooreteP]

Great descriptions of 195 and 177.
(Maybe the Bobcats will break both the Curie and the "2011 CMP Shirt" curse)

20 should be ranked higher, IMHO. (do they count as a New England Team?)

We'll see how these statistics play out on Saturday.

So excited. I really like this game.

[Jay O'Donnell]

Is there going to be an Einstein prediction thread from looking forward like usual? It's my favorite one every year!

[David8696]

Originally Posted by Jay O'Donnell

Is there going to be an Einstein prediction thread from looking forward like usual? It's my favorite one every year!

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=129037
Here you are, good sir