Predictions Championship 2014: Einstein

[Looking Forward]

Never before has an alliance that reached Einstein called in a back-up bot at any point in the tournament. With the new back-up rules, most important of which is that a team subbed out can return to play again in future matches, and the hard-hitting style that permeates Aerial Assist, there's a good chance that changes this weekend. Winning five rounds of elimination matches is about survival, and alliances are only as strong as their weakest link in Aerial Assist. Dead robots gimpy robots, and missed autonomous shots are match killers, and alliances simply cannot afford to put teams on the field that are not functioning properly.

Fifty-point cycles will be the norm on Einstein. Defense may force some low goal finishes or a rare skipped truss, but the teams who reach this far will be practiced and reliable enough to get open looks and move the ball between robots quickly. An alliance or two may complete a perfect cycle or two when the opportunity presents itself, but it takes a lot of commitment from two robots to make that happen in addition to a defensive miscue from the opponent. Most alliances will opt for a lower precision truss shot that's easie to execute in traffic, targeting the human player. Alliances will have a preferred finisher and assist order, but they will need to be flexible. Once the lights are illuminated, it doesn't matter who puts the ball through the goal. Expect forward robots to be able to switch on the fly if one is engaged with an opponent, a shot is missed, or a trussed ball ends up in an unexpected position.

All four division champions will be able to regularly post 70 or 75 points in first ten seconds en route to Einstein. While a team with a 3-ball autonomous may emerge from a division, I wouldn't expect to see anyone firing more than two shots in autonomous. Einstein's field has been known to occassionally throw a wrench in autonomous plans, and the aggregated wear and tear may cause an unforced miss or two. The margin for error in this game is slim, and loose balls create an obvious target for defense. Expect at least one match to be determined by balls on the ground at the end of the hybrid period.

This year, the best teams aren't always the best scoring teams, and the best alliances need to funciton as a cohesive unit with and without the ball. While all four alliances should have the potential to break 300 points in a exhibition match, don't expect scores in that realm when the defense is turned up. The scores on Einstein will likely hover around or just below 200, and most matches will be decided by one cycle or less. While all three robots on each alliance will be engaged in the assist cycle, defensive responsibilities will be equally important. Defenders will swarm to open balls, crowd inbounding positions, and try to disrupt passing. Teams that can effectively limit the opponent's score will be just as important as those who finish the cycle.

Both Aerial Assist and Einstein have provided no shortage of heartbreak and heated discussion. While hopefully the FMS issues or scoring errors will not rear their ugly head once more, referees will still be front and center. With the level of robot engagement in this game so high, it's unlikely that Einstein will be penalty free, and the foul points are large enough that the outcome of matches may hinge upon a referee's call. It's happened in the past, particularly in high penalty games like 2008, where everyone's least favorite rule of that season altered the winner of a semi-final.

And, of course, it's time for the predictions:

ARCHIMEDES:
The WARLords and OP Robotics team up on a high ranked alliance, and round out their alliance with the rookie CyberKnights and the Nuts & Bolts of Fury. They play smart and efficient on offense, but aren't afraid to get their hands dirty either. They become easily the highest numbered alliance to compete on Einstein.
2485/2056/4911/3525

CURIE:
It's not a full-on "scorched earth," but the Cheesy Poofs decline the #1 seed. In the wake of that, they unite with Las Guerillas on a middle ranked alliance. They select Montreal powerhouses Tech For Kids in the 2nd round, and complete their alliance with MORE Robotics as a back-up.
254/469/3990/1714

GALILEO:
Team DAVE works their way into the #1 seed and selects HOT first overall, followed by last year's Einstein vets Lightning Robotics, and team Breakaway. It's not an easy path through the division, and they're taken to three matches at least twice. Their full-field defensive blitz ultimately pulls them through.
3683/67/862/3937

NEWTON:
Spartan Robotics doesn't escape qualifications unscathed, but they're still highly ranked. Simbotics ranks even higher, and picks the California powerhouse. They grab Team Neutrino to inbound for them, and complete their alliance with Air Strike. The experience and flexibility is crucial for this offensively giften powerhouse alliance. They're tested, but storm through the eliminations.
1114/971/3928/78


EINSTEIN:
AvC and GvN in the first round.

2485/2056/4911/3525 defeat 254/469/3990/1714 in three hard fought, riveting matches. The WARLords' timely defense disrupts the ball transitions, and provides the slight edge required.
1114/971/3928/78 defeat 3683/67/862/3937 in two matches, ending Galileo's winning streak. Ultimately Newton's offense that is just too much to handle.

1114/971/3928/78 defeat 2485/2056/4911/3525 in three matches. Archimedes slows the pace effectively, but the Simbots dish out some excellent defense in response. The battles are intense, but the depth of the Newton alliance proves to be too much.

These predictions are just a bit of fun. Neither these, nor the division threads, are meant to be comprehensive. Don't like 'em?
Go out there and prove them wrong!