Statistical Predictions

[Basel A]

Originally Posted by Greg Marra

Has anyone run predictive statistical models (a la Nate Silver) to predict later season competitions based on earlier results successfully?

I attempted to build a simple model that predicted Curie based on summing for each alliance each team's best Event OPR from earlier in the season. It scored 21/81 based on Thursday's matches. You'd be better off taking the opposite of my model by a long shot!

I've been doing it for several years, and this year it's been the worst by far. The game could hardly be more interdependent, which makes any OPR-based predictions bunk. Also, I should note that I've generally found Most Recent OPR to be a better predictor than Max OPR.