'6v0' in the World Cup

[Grim Tuesday]

I imagine there are quite a few people on Chief Delphi watching the United State's performance in the World Cup with great interest. After today's game with Portugal (last second heartbreaker...) the USA will advance to the round of 16 if any of the following cases take place in the last two games of the group (Germany vs USA and Ghana vs Portugal):

1. USA beats Germany
2. USA ties Germany
3. USA loses to Germany and Portugal and Ghana tie
4. USA loses to Germany and Portugal beats Ghana. Both games have to be close enough so as not to erase the 5 point goal difference between the USA and Portugal.
5. USA loses to Germany in close game and Ghana beats Portugal in close game (enough to make up 2 point goal difference between them. If they end up tied, US beat Ghana head-to-head so USA advances)

For the those who don't know, the group stage works via W/L/T seeding with 3 points to a winner, 1 to a tie, and 0 to a loss. The first tiebreaker is goal difference (sum of win margins), the second is total goals scored and the third is head-to-head record.

Germany is almost guaranteed to advance due to its excellent goal difference (primary tiebreaker) which it racked up in the first game with Portugal. However, if they lose to the United States, there is a negligible chance they might not advance to the next stage and they will definitely not get the 1st seeded position. If they tie with the USA, they will get the 1st position and get to play against an easier opponent in the next round.

Where this becomes an interesting question for the FRC community is in the 6v0 gameplay of 2010 (a soccer game...) It would be mutually beneficial for both the United States and Germany to tie. It guarantees United States advancement, and guarantees German advancement and the 1st seed position.

There were many defenders of 6v0 in FRC gameplay as it being part of the rules, and knowing how to play the metagame. I was wondering if in the context of the World Cup they could defend a 0-0 tie where the players sit down and don't play, guaranteeing both advancement to the next stage in the World Cup.

[Gregor]

Is there a situation in which USA can seed first?

[Grim Tuesday]

Yes, if they win against Germany they will seed first. Nate Silver's 538.com pegs the odds of that happening at about 14.3%.

[Chris Fultz]

Interesting article on the subject.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/jurgen-...05-soccer.html

[smistthegreat]

Originally Posted by Gregor

Is there a situation in which USA can seed first?

A USA win will put them in first for sure. I think that's it though, as a USA-Germany draw will put Germany ahead on goal differential.

Appears as though I underestimated the amount of soccer fan activity on CD in June, as I was beat to the answer.

[smistthegreat]

Sorry for the double post, but I would like to point out that this type of situation has occurred in World Cup history in 1982. Here's the link for anyone who wants to read up: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Ge...80%930_Austria

Keep in mind that the format was a little different, and this situation resulted in a rule change from FIFA. Regardless, it appeared as though the result was mutually agreed to by both teams and ended up in a very "6v0" type situation.

[Basel A]

An American win would make it much easier to advance into the quarterfinals. 2nd place in the group will likely play Belgium in the next round, whereas the group leader will probably play Russia or Algeria. Belgium has looked out-of-sorts but they're 2-0 and I wouldn't want to be in the way once they hit their stride. So I don't entirely agree that a draw would be mutually beneficial.

While a tie is fine for the USA, I think they should (and will) try to go out and win it. Particularly because I think Portugal will beat Ghana and America will advance whatever their result against Germany.

This US squad have a lot to prove, both because the USMNT typically stinks and because they're relatively inexperienced on the international stage. They'll want to take it to an elite team like Germany. I predict Germany 1 - 0 USA

[Grim Tuesday]

Originally Posted by smistthegreat

Sorry for the double post, but I would like to point out that this type of situation has occurred in World Cup history in 1982. Here's the link for anyone who wants to read up: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Ge...80%930_Austria

Keep in mind that the format was a little different, and this situation resulted in a rule change from FIFA. Regardless, it appeared as though the result was mutually agreed to by both teams and ended up in a very "6v0" type situation.

Did you see this in a /r/soccer thread too?

[smistthegreat]

Originally Posted by Grim Tuesday

Did you see this in a /r/soccer thread too?

No, one of the commentators mentioned it in passing during the South Korea v Algeria match earlier today and I looked into it.

I'd also like to point out that the consequences of the 1982 match were very reminiscent of what FIRST might do should a situation like this arise:

-The two teams involved didn't admit to anything
-No action was taken against the two teams because no rules were actually broken
-The team that was negatively effected filed an official complaint with the FIFA administration
-A rule update was applied to the next applicable tournament

[MooreteP]

Thursday noon will feed my ADHD.

[Bob Steele]

By the way the 1982 result was a 1-0 win for Germany. They did not play for a draw. They backed off on Goal scoring. Algeria was the team that was left out because of the result. FYI

Note: The reason that the final two matches of a group are played at the same time is at least partially due to that match in 1982. The rule was changed following that WC

[pmangels17]

Being the first seed has advantages, and it is highly likely that Germany will make it out anyway due to their massive goal differential (thanks to a 4-0 rout of Portugal). The two teams are essentially playing for seeding, which is very advantageous going into elimination rounds, as it is in FRC. The smart play for both teams is to play to win, since the loser will most likely make it out anyway.

As an American, who is also a big Germany fan (Tom Muller is my dude), I'd love to see Ghana and Portugal tie, and then make the other game a contest. Be assured, both teams will come out swinging, USA to prove themselves as more than an underdog, Germany to solidify their dominance after a strong start and second-match syndrome against Ghana.

[Dustin Shadbolt]

I'd love to see them both come out swinging, but both teams know the benefits to a draw. They will probably play on the defensive/slow-pace side. The sucky part is that the PORvGHA game is at the same time. Time for two televisions.

[pmangels17]

Someone un-American decided that our school's graduation rehearsal also has to be at noon thursday (yes we graduate late, yes we start late, yes I unfortunately have to attend), so I will be keeping up with whatever cellular devices I can find.