paper: Alliance Seeds and Results

[Brian Maher]

Thread created automatically to discuss a document in CD-Media.

Alliance Seeds and Results by BMSOTM

[MARS_James]

I am really interested in getting everyone's opinions on this, I always figured the serpentine draft helped to equal out the playing field but from this it looks like it is not the case(at least for this year would love to see this done for previous years). This is especially true since of the two 8th seeds to make it to finals at a competition one was the Orlando 8th seed alliance (which I was a part of) who would have been eliminated.

Is it time for a change of draft structure? If so how could we improve it?

[BBray_T1296]

I feel like this year with so much dependability on a full working team, that the serpentine draft did a good job.

At both regionals we attended, we were the 8th seeded alliance, and came within just a couple of points of beating the #1 seeded alliance both times, Giving the #1 seeded alliance the hardest fight they saw.

At Texas Robot Roundup the lower seeds eliminated at least 2 of the 4 higher opponents, and at RoboReboot we were 5th seed (there were only enough teams for 5 seeds so we were lowest) and still won the event, beating #4, #1, and #2

This year you could do a lot of damage with 3 fairly competitive robots compared to 2 great ones and a seed #24.

I have heard some reasonable suggestions before, but what is the better alternative?

[Basel A]

I never thought lower seeds would have more success than higher seeds, but perhaps more success than they've had in previous years. Would be interested to compare a chart like this to one from 2013 or the past few years. It'd also be interesting to look at the same results from different sizes of event, smaller vs. larger.

[Brian Maher]

There were a couple factors that caused me to want to look at this data. At MAR champs, we were on the #2 alliance, and we were eliminated by a strong 7th seed alliance. It made me wonder, how often does this happen?
I was also following the WVROX off-season, which was played by 24 teams. The #1, #3, and #4 alliances were all eliminated in quarterfinals. I was originally going to include event size data and look at that, but I thought this was plenty to look at. If you would like the event size info and maybe a graph or two, I can easily put that together.

[IKE]

Jim Z compiled previous years. This data set is more favorable to the lower half of the bracket than most years. Typically #7 is an absolute dead spot and there we're 4 victories that year.
I don't think anything needs to be done to help lower alliances. #1 earns the right to first pick. And the rest makes sense. Serpentine does help add some variability.

[qzrrbz]

not that there is much skew as a result, but kind of thinking the CMP divisions are a different kettle of fish for this analysis...

the 32nd robot was a great robot at CMP -- what mattered was how the chemistry came together, not draft vagaries!

[seanthompson]

I don"t think that there really is a problem to fix. The #1 has earned the spot after 10 qualification matches, and eliminations aren't supposed to be a level playing field. Plus, i think that serpentine actually helps a ton, and we just can't see it. Imagine having #1 pick first in the 2nd round of selections as well! Without serpentine, #1 would probably win more like 75% of the time.

[Deke]

I believe the one #8 seed that won, beat the #1 alliance in the quarter finals. In those quarter finals, the #1 seeded robot had their electronics ripped out during match play and were extremely crippled in the first or second match.

It is still a testament that once they got past the #1 alliance, the next best alliance couldn't beat them.

[percussionette]

At Center Line, when the number 8 alliance beat the number 1, the number 8 alliance was accumulating fouls against the number 1 alliance in every match (this was week 1 so some bugs in the fouls were present.) Such as driving underneath of appendages. The number 8 alliance gave the number 1 extensive damage, such as smashed frames, broken polycarbonate, and wrecked electronics. They had good chemistry, too, which definitely contributed to their winning alliance

[themccannman]

Originally Posted by MARS_James

I am really interested in getting everyone's opinions on this, I always figured the serpentine draft helped to equal out the playing field but from this it looks like it is not the case(at least for this year would love to see this done for previous years). This is especially true since of the two 8th seeds to make it to finals at a competition one was the Orlando 8th seed alliance (which I was a part of) who would have been eliminated.

Is it time for a change of draft structure? If so how could we improve it?

It's not supposed to make the alliances even, it's supposed to make them more even than if the first alliance got 2 picks in a row. If we wanted it to be truly even their would be no incentive to seed higher because it wouldn't increase your chances of winning, suddenly everyone is sandbagging and throwing matches because it doesn't matter if you win.

Serpentine draft is good, there's a reason most other competitive sports use it.

[GKrotkov]

And I thought I was being all original and insightful...

[Rypsnort]

This made me wonder about the average seeding of an alliance and how that impacts the outcome. Especially the impact of the 1st seed alliance picking the #2 seed team. I have seen it many times where the #2 "rejects" the #1 and the crowd making a big deal out of it. From this data I would think "rejecting" the #1 seed is a bad idea.

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Rypsnort

This made me wonder about the average seeding of an alliance and how that impacts the outcome. Especially the impact of the 1st seed alliance picking the #2 seed team. I have seen it many times where the #2 "rejects" the #1 and the crowd making a big deal out of it. From this data I would think "rejecting" the #1 seed is a bad idea.

I think that this is a bad conclusion to draw from this data. Correlation is not causation. The first seeded alliance does not do well across the board because they happen to have a number 1 next to their alliance number, but because they tend to have better robots on their alliance than any other seed. Generally, the first seed has a pretty good robot, so it is beneficial for any team to accept their invitation. However, if the first seed has a robot that is not one of the top 2 robots at the event according to your pick list, there is no good reason* to accept their invitation if you are the 2 seed.

*Unless you are looking for an easier schedule in the quarter and semi finals.

[Brandon Ha]

If you do not believe that the first seed was qualified enough to hold that rank would you accept them? There are few cases ever where this situation is not true but generally speaking, the first seeded team has demonstrated the highest "skill" in the competition at the tournament whether that be through an excellent robot and drive team, or less likely, a great strategic team.
Also, while you may have an easier schedule through elims, would you rather get a blue banner under a team you believe will kill the competition or suck it up with someone else who YOU believe shouldn't be there and get a nice piece of hardware. I dunno about anyone else but Blue Banners are really nice and generally secure yourselves a spot at championships/