Quote:
Originally Posted by Ether
Since you used the word "predict", is it safe to say that what you did was to use the data from weeks 1 through n-1 to predict the matches in week n?
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No, I guess I should have used a better word than "predict". More like "postdict". I went into it "knowing" an Elo/TrueSkill rating and tested against the data that was used to calculate it. Of course we won't have all the data to calculate the final Elo ratings during the season. My next step is to calculate all the ratings as if it is just before championships and then see how each does with "predicting" championship matches. My SWAG is that the success rate in predictions using the "postdicted" matches is a ceiling for how good we can hope for the predictions to be.
This is the type of thing that puts an evil glint in Dave's eye and a smile on his face... - Wetzel [more] 
11-10-2014, 12:25
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