paper: Weeks 1-2 Elo Analysis

[Michael Hill]

Originally Posted by Ether

I just ran the OPR numbers using the data you linked in your earlier post. I came up with 6919 of 8921 matches correctly "postdicted", or 77.56%

Our numbers are very close, but I had expected them to be identical.

Here's a link to an XLS spreadsheet.

The differences are how we're calling tied matches. The way you're calculating if OPR "correctly" predicted falls apart when the actual result of the match was a tie. Almost always, the OPR will not predict a tie.