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Unread 11-12-2014, 19:55
Nathan Streeter's Avatar
Nathan Streeter Nathan Streeter is offline
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Re: Most Competitive Events in 2015?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nicholsjj View Post
I really thought Arkansas would be higher with a "headliner" team list of: 16, 1625, 1986, 2451, and 2481. Along with many great up and coming powerhouse teams such as 3284, 3847, 3937, and 4522, but I guess with it being a huge event numbers wise and having a lot of younger Arkansas teams lowered it a bit.
Agreed that 16, 1625, and 1986 will have a strong impact on BBQ, but teams have to be highly successful over the majority of their history (i.e., top 100 in FRC year-after-year) to have a noteworthy BBQ. A quick look shows that the other teams (two of whom I've been keeping tabs on from a thousand miles away), although highly competitive at the regional level haven't really had the sustained success necessary to bring up a large event.

For this reason (and the simple fact that only 24 teams make it into elims), I'd be more interested in seeing the average BBQ of the top ~24 teams.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nemo View Post
Can anybody link me to a source that scrubs that usfirst.org site for the team lists at each event and lets me download it in a convenient format, such as csv or a table that I can copy and paste?

I'd be interested in generating and posting some event comparisons using historical data if I can find an easy way to generate those team lists.
Seconded... probably for the same reason! ;-)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes View Post
These are certainly interesting statistics, but I am wondering what is really being shown here. I feel like the age of the region that holds the event is a big contributor to BBQ, since the older the teams are, the more chances they have to win blue banners. For example, if I did my math right, the 2014 Minnesota State Championship had a BBQ of 1.13. Although I concede that even the MN State Championship did not have the same caliber of competition as some of the better regional events, I am certain that the caliber of the competition there was much better than that of the average regional.

Basically, BBQ can probably have good uses, but rating the difficulty of the competition at an event is generally not one of them.
BBQ shouldn't bias older regions/teams much, if at all... a team's BBQ is determined by their number of blue banners divided by their age in years. Again, what matters for BBQ is high-level success over a prolonged portion of their history. For instance, the BBQ of a few New England teams...

125: 9 blue banners, 17 years old... BBQ: 0.53
1519: 7 blue banners, 10 years old... BBQ: 0.70
177: 16 blue banners, 20 years old... BBQ: 0.80
3467: 5 blue banners, 4 years old... BBQ: 1.25

And some MN, WI teams...

2175: 2 blue banners, 8 years old... BBQ: 0.25
2052: 4 blue banners, 8 years old... BBQ: 0.50
2826: 4 blue banners, 6 years old... BBQ: 0.67
1732: 6 blue banners, 9 years old... BBQ: 0.67
2169: 9 blue banners, 8 years old... BBQ: 1.13

I for one was especially stunned that 2826 has 'only' 4 banners... seems like all those Finalists should count for something! ;-) Sorry if I slighted anyone's blue banner count; I was just quickly counting off the FIRST awards site!

Anyway, I far prefer my own aWAR (or Nemo's Performance Index) for predicting event competitiveness. If someone posts an Excel sheet with all the 2015 events and teams attending I'll run the aggregate aWAR numbers and such.
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