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#16
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Re: Strongest regional competitions
Quote:
Back to the point at hand: Quote:
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#17
17-12-2014, 16:52
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Re: Strongest regional competitions
The hardest/strongest regional(s) is (are) always the one(s) you attend. Remember, you can only really understand how good a team is if you see them live!
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#18
17-12-2014, 17:12
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Re: Strongest regional competitions
Quote:
Last edited by XaulZan11 : 17-12-2014 at 17:14.
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#19
18-12-2014, 01:20
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Re: Strongest regional competitions
I finally got around to the tedious task (for me, without scripting capabilities) of putting all the current team lists for the events into Excel and looking up aWAR for each team.
If you're new to aWAR, it is essentially a year-by-year statistic to describe how good/successful a team was in a certain year. It is primarily based on the district point system (i.e., teams accrue points based on how they do in quals, picking, elims, and awards), plus an addition from OPR. District and CMP points have a 1.7x multiplier. This raw point value is then adjusted and scaled so that a 'replacement level' team (I determined a replacement level team to be one which is on the cusp of making elims at a 40-team district event, with a 5-7-0 record who may or may not win some awards) has an aWAR around 0 and a dominant team that year should have an aWAR around 7. aWAR stands for 'aggregate Wins Above Replacement,' explaining why it is scaled as such... an aWAR of 0 would suggest a team capable of being on the cusp of making elims, an aWAR of 7 would suggest a team capable of getting a perfect record in quals. For more information about aWAR, see this thread where I first introduced it (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...8&postcount=1). At any rate, for this ranking I used teams' multi-season aWAR... the weighted average of the last 4 years (40%, 32%, 20%, 8%). For each event I took the average of all teams, the average of the top 8 teams by aWAR, the average of the top 16 teams by aWAR, and the average of the top 24 teams by aWAR. Each are given below. The average aWAR could theoretically evaluate how good qualification matches, whereas the average of the top 8 may be better for determining which events have the most 'star power', and the average of the top 24 may be better for evaluating how competitive elims will be. Note that the averages of the upper subsets (particularly the top 24) will favor large events and the average of all teams may be pretty foreign from how folks usually evaluate how good a tournament is (looking at the top few teams). As is starting to be discussed some in this thread, no statistical description of teams performance (whether over the team's history, recent years, or last year) will perfectly describe the team's success... however, you see teams generally performing around similar levels (i.e., perennial powerhouses, perennial contenders, teams that sometimes build contenders, teams that have never made elims, etc.). The idea is that you can predict roughly how competitive events will be relative to others... obviously this can only go so far. I'm attaching a spreadsheet that allows you to go through and sort/rank the events yourself (perhaps filter out categories?) and also allows you to sort/rank teams by aWAR... I recommend this particularly for those of you that are intrigued by or skeptical of aWAR. Filter down to teams from your area and see what you think... I hope to upload my full aWAR spreadsheet that allows you to use the lookup feature to 'study' teams' recent years and individual seasons (similar to the lookup sheet on Ed Law's spreadsheet). As a last note, almost all the groundwork to calculate aWAR was laid by Dan Niemitalo (Nemo), who made the spreadsheet for the same reason but to generate a statistic he called Performance Index. Sorted by Top 8 aWAR: Code:
Rank Event Code Week Type Event Name Average top8 top16 top24 1 txda 1 Regional Dallas Regional 1.34 4.80 3.26 2.47 2 onwa 4 Regional Waterloo Regional 1.80 4.23 2.81 2.10 3 pahat 1 MAR Hatboro-Horsham Event 1.67 4.22 3.26 2.49 4 arfa 2 Regional Arkansas Rock City Regional 1.29 3.98 3.10 2.61 5 nvlv 5 Regional Las Vegas Regional 1.02 3.82 2.62 1.97 6 casj 6 Regional Silicon Valley Regional 1.00 3.77 2.69 2.16 7 miliv 5 Michigan Livonia Event 1.24 3.77 2.63 2.02 8 miwat 2 Michigan Waterford Event 1.30 3.76 2.80 2.11 9 onto2 2 Regional Greater Toronto Central Regional 1.07 3.71 2.46 1.84 10 carm 1 Regional Inland Empire R egional 1.20 3.68 2.35 1.72 11 miwmi 4 Michigan West Michigan Event 1.36 3.61 2.68 2.15 12 hiho 5 Regional Hawaii Regional 1.39 3.60 2.57 1.99 13 cama 2 Regional Central Valley Regional 1.10 3.57 2.53 2.02 14 onwi 6 Regional Windsor Essex Great Lakes Regional 1.01 3.51 2.40 1.90 15 njfla 2 MAR Mt Olive Event 1.50 3.49 2.67 2.14 16 onto 3 Regional Greater Toronto Regional 1.14 3.47 2.59 2.04 17 calb 3 Regional Los Angeles Regional 0.83 3.38 2.47 1.96 18 njbri 5 MAR Bridgewater-Raritran Event 1.38 3.38 2.68 2.08 19 flfo 1 Regional South Florida 1.15 3.38 2.63 2.12 20 misjo 4 Michigan St Joseph Event 1.04 3.37 2.24 1.55 21 waamv 1 PNW Auburn Mountainview Event 1.44 3.36 2.49 1.85 22 ohci 6 Regional Queen City Regional 1.20 3.36 2.58 2.13 23 cthar 5 New England Hartford Event 1.31 3.35 2.49 1.88 24 paphi 3 MAR Springside Chestnut Hill Event 1.41 3.35 2.42 1.93 25 casa 4 Regional Sacramento Regional 0.93 3.34 2.33 1.87 26 wamou 3 PNW Mount Vernon Event 1.33 3.29 2.26 1.75 27 cave 5 Regional Ventura Regional 1.25 3.29 2.22 1.61 28 mihow 1 Michigan Howell Event 1.30 3.27 2.42 1.95 29 misou 1 Michigan Southfield Event 0.95 3.27 2.17 1.56 30 njtab 4 MAR Seneca Event 1.11 3.27 2.37 1.71 31 utwv 3 Regional Utah Regional 1.12 3.23 2.53 2.12 32 mndu2 1 Regional Northern Lights 0.75 3.23 2.30 1.78 33 mifla 3 Michigan Woodhaven Event 1.15 3.20 2.21 1.58 34 flor 3 Regional Orlando Regional 0.96 3.16 2.61 2.15 35 wimi 4 Regional Wisconsin Regional 1.04 3.07 2.40 2.02 36 ctwat 1 New England Waterbury Event 1.30 3.04 2.22 1.70 37 lake 4 Regional Bayou Regional 0.87 3.04 2.33 1.84 38 ilil 4 Regional Central Illinois Regional 1.33 3.03 2.34 1.92 39 txsa 3 Regional Alamo Regional 0.70 3.03 2.32 1.76 40 casd 6 Regional San Diego Regional 0.72 3.03 2.12 1.66 41 papi 2 Regional Greater Pittsburgh Regional 1.15 3.02 2.53 2.09 42 mitvc 3 Michigan Traverse City Event 0.91 3.02 2.05 1.51 43 njnbr 6 MAR North Brunswick Event 1.15 3.02 2.08 1.54 44 ohcl 5 Regional Buckeye Regional 0.98 3.01 2.43 2.01 45 rismi 4 New England Rhode Island Event 1.06 2.98 2.21 1.62 46 mosl 4 Regional St Louis Regional 0.90 2.98 2.06 1.56 47 inwla 4 Indiana Purdue Event 1.08 2.98 2.18 1.66 48 inind 1 Indiana Indianapolis Event 1.19 2.97 2.26 1.70 49 ilch 6 Regional Midwest Regional 0.86 2.93 2.09 1.67 50 padre 5 MAR Upper Darby Event 1.23 2.92 2.18 1.71 51 nyro 5 Regional Finger Lakes Regional 1.08 2.92 2.34 1.82 52 mnni2 6 Regional Minnesota North Star Regional 0.66 2.84 2.01 1.57 53 onnb 5 Regional North Bay Regional 1.13 2.75 2.13 1.66 54 azch 4 Regional Arizona East Regional 1.05 2.73 2.16 1.70 55 miken 2 Michigan Kentwood Event 0.97 2.73 1.98 1.47 56 nhdur 4 New England UNH Event 1.03 2.73 2.06 1.62 57 mdcp 6 Regional Chesapeake Regional 0.81 2.72 2.12 1.72 58 mitry 6 Michigan Troy Event 0.80 2.71 1.65 1.18 59 mnmi 6 Regional Minneosta 10000 Lakes Regional 0.74 2.69 2.00 1.61 60 qcmo 4 Regional Montreal Regional 0.78 2.67 1.86 1.45 61 nytr 4 Regional New York Tech Valley Regional 1.26 2.64 2.19 1.76 62 mokc 3 Regional Greater Kansas City Regional 0.72 2.60 1.91 1.49 63 maspr 2 New England Pioneer Valley Event 1.12 2.59 1.89 1.51 64 micen 5 Michigan Center Line Event 0.84 2.58 1.85 1.37 65 manda 3 New England Umass Dartmouth Event 1.14 2.57 1.74 1.20 66 orore 1 PNW Oregon City Event 1.10 2.56 1.86 1.44 67 washo 4 PNW Shorewood Event 0.99 2.55 1.75 1.29 68 mabos 5 New England Northeastern University Event 0.91 2.54 1.82 1.45 69 mndu 1 Regional Lake Superior Regional 0.68 2.52 1.91 1.55 70 txlu 5 Regional Hub City Regional 0.80 2.50 1.81 1.43 71 scmb 1 Regional Palmetto Regional 0.84 2.49 2.14 1.87 72 miket 2 Michigan Kettering University Event 0.66 2.47 1.58 1.12 73 waahs 5 PNW Auburn Event 0.94 2.46 1.67 1.24 74 tnkn 6 Regional Smoky Moutains Regional 0.70 2.46 1.78 1.38 75 ista 3 Regional Israel Regional 0.72 2.41 1.92 1.51 76 code 5 Regional Colorado Regional 0.78 2.39 1.73 1.40 77 gadu 5 Regional Peachtree Regional 0.65 2.39 1.99 1.65 78 wasno 2 PNW Glacier Peak Event 1.00 2.38 1.73 1.34 79 gape 1 Regional Georgia Southern Classic Regional 0.79 2.38 1.75 1.36 80 waell 4 PNW Central Washington University Event 1.01 2.37 1.74 1.33 81 nhnas 1 New England Granite State Event 0.90 2.37 1.75 1.38 82 inkok 3 Indiana Kokomo City Event 0.89 2.36 1.59 1.11 83 nyli 5 Regional SBPLI Long Island Regoinal 0.91 2.35 2.03 1.70 84 orwil 3 PNW Wilsonville Event 0.99 2.31 1.66 1.28 85 okok 5 Regional Oklahoma Regional 0.67 2.24 1.82 1.51 86 marea 2 New England Reading Event 0.69 2.21 1.54 1.18 87 mimid 4 Michigan Great Lakes Bay Region Event 0.67 2.21 1.49 1.10 88 vari 4 Regional Virginia Regional 0.64 2.17 1.81 1.57 89 azpx 6 Regional Arizona West Regional 0.83 2.16 1.60 1.13 90 nyny 3 Regional New York City Regional 0.57 2.10 1.76 1.44 91 dcwa 5 Regional Greater DC Regional 0.77 2.10 1.75 1.41 92 melew 3 New England Pine Tree Event 0.89 2.05 1.55 1.16 93 txho 6 Regional Lone Star Regional 0.66 1.99 1.62 1.32 94 ausy 3 Regional Australia Regional 0.39 1.90 0.96 0.64 95 ncre 4 Regional North Carolina Regional 0.50 1.88 1.52 1.17 96 abca 6 Regional Western Canada Regional 0.57 1.87 1.22 0.83 97 milan 6 Michigan Lansing Event 0.59 1.81 1.19 0.79 98 migul 3 Michigan Gull Lake Event 0.54 1.77 1.23 0.89 99 waspo 2 PNW West Valley Event 0.80 1.77 1.21 0.84 100 orphi 5 PNW Philomath Event 0.83 1.67 1.35 1.06 101 mxmc 2 Regional Mexico City Regional 0.53 1.58 1.12 0.88 102 miesc 5 Michigan Escanaba Event 0.54 1.49 0.98 0.66 103 mista 1 Michigan Standish Event 0.40 1.15 0.82 0.57 104 mibed 6 Michigan Bedford Event 0.58 0.73 0.50 0.50 Sorted by Top 16 aWAR: Code:
Rank Event Code Week Type Event Name Average top8 top16 top24 1 pahat 1 MAR Hatboro-Horsham Event 1.67 4.22 3.26 2.49 2 txda 1 Regional Dallas Regional 1.34 4.80 3.26 2.47 3 arfa 2 Regional Arkansas Rock City Regional 1.29 3.98 3.10 2.61 4 onwa 4 Regional Waterloo Regional 1.80 4.23 2.81 2.10 5 miwat 2 Michigan Waterford Event 1.30 3.76 2.80 2.11 6 casj 6 Regional Silicon Valley Regional 1.00 3.77 2.69 2.16 7 njbri 5 MAR Bridgewater-Raritran Event 1.38 3.38 2.68 2.08 8 miwmi 4 Michigan West Michigan Event 1.36 3.61 2.68 2.15 9 njfla 2 MAR Mt Olive Event 1.50 3.49 2.67 2.14 10 miliv 5 Michigan Livonia Event 1.24 3.77 2.63 2.02 11 flfo 1 Regional South Florida 1.15 3.38 2.63 2.12 12 nvlv 5 Regional Las Vegas Regional 1.02 3.82 2.62 1.97 13 flor 3 Regional Orlando Regional 0.96 3.16 2.61 2.15 14 onto 3 Regional Greater Toronto Regional 1.14 3.47 2.59 2.04 15 ohci 6 Regional Queen City Regional 1.20 3.36 2.58 2.13 16 hiho 5 Regional Hawaii Regional 1.39 3.60 2.57 1.99 17 papi 2 Regional Greater Pittsburgh Regional 1.15 3.02 2.53 2.09 18 utwv 3 Regional Utah Regional 1.12 3.23 2.53 2.12 19 cama 2 Regional Central Valley Regional 1.10 3.57 2.53 2.02 20 waamv 1 PNW Auburn Mountainview Event 1.44 3.36 2.49 1.85 21 cthar 5 New England Hartford Event 1.31 3.35 2.49 1.88 22 calb 3 Regional Los Angeles Regional 0.83 3.38 2.47 1.96 23 onto2 2 Regional Greater Toronto Central Regional 1.07 3.71 2.46 1.84 24 ohcl 5 Regional Buckeye Regional 0.98 3.01 2.43 2.01 25 mihow 1 Michigan Howell Event 1.30 3.27 2.42 1.95 26 paphi 3 MAR Springside Chestnut Hill Event 1.41 3.35 2.42 1.93 27 wimi 4 Regional Wisconsin Regional 1.04 3.07 2.40 2.02 28 onwi 6 Regional Windsor Essex Great Lakes Regional 1.01 3.51 2.40 1.90 29 njtab 4 MAR Seneca Event 1.11 3.27 2.37 1.71 30 carm 1 Regional Inland Empire R egional 1.20 3.68 2.35 1.72 31 nyro 5 Regional Finger Lakes Regional 1.08 2.92 2.34 1.82 32 ilil 4 Regional Central Illinois Regional 1.33 3.03 2.34 1.92 33 casa 4 Regional Sacramento Regional 0.93 3.34 2.33 1.87 34 lake 4 Regional Bayou Regional 0.87 3.04 2.33 1.84 35 txsa 3 Regional Alamo Regional 0.70 3.03 2.32 1.76 36 mndu2 1 Regional Northern Lights 0.75 3.23 2.30 1.78 37 wamou 3 PNW Mount Vernon Event 1.33 3.29 2.26 1.75 38 inind 1 Indiana Indianapolis Event 1.19 2.97 2.26 1.70 39 misjo 4 Michigan St Joseph Event 1.04 3.37 2.24 1.55 40 cave 5 Regional Ventura Regional 1.25 3.29 2.22 1.61 41 ctwat 1 New England Waterbury Event 1.30 3.04 2.22 1.70 42 rismi 4 New England Rhode Island Event 1.06 2.98 2.21 1.62 43 mifla 3 Michigan Woodhaven Event 1.15 3.20 2.21 1.58 44 nytr 4 Regional New York Tech Valley Regional 1.26 2.64 2.19 1.76 45 padre 5 MAR Upper Darby Event 1.23 2.92 2.18 1.71 46 inwla 4 Indiana Purdue Event 1.08 2.98 2.18 1.66 47 misou 1 Michigan Southfield Event 0.95 3.27 2.17 1.56 48 azch 4 Regional Arizona East Regional 1.05 2.73 2.16 1.70 49 scmb 1 Regional Palmetto Regional 0.84 2.49 2.14 1.87 50 onnb 5 Regional North Bay Regional 1.13 2.75 2.13 1.66 51 casd 6 Regional San Diego Regional 0.72 3.03 2.12 1.66 52 mdcp 6 Regional Chesapeake Regional 0.81 2.72 2.12 1.72 53 ilch 6 Regional Midwest Regional 0.86 2.93 2.09 1.67 54 njnbr 6 MAR North Brunswick Event 1.15 3.02 2.08 1.54 55 nhdur 4 New England UNH Event 1.03 2.73 2.06 1.62 56 mosl 4 Regional St Louis Regional 0.90 2.98 2.06 1.56 57 mitvc 3 Michigan Traverse City Event 0.91 3.02 2.05 1.51 58 nyli 5 Regional SBPLI Long Island Regoinal 0.91 2.35 2.03 1.70 59 mnni2 6 Regional Minnesota North Star Regional 0.66 2.84 2.01 1.57 60 mnmi 6 Regional Minneosta 10000 Lakes Regional 0.74 2.69 2.00 1.61 61 gadu 5 Regional Peachtree Regional 0.65 2.39 1.99 1.65 62 miken 2 Michigan Kentwood Event 0.97 2.73 1.98 1.47 63 ista 3 Regional Israel Regional 0.72 2.41 1.92 1.51 64 mndu 1 Regional Lake Superior Regional 0.68 2.52 1.91 1.55 65 mokc 3 Regional Greater Kansas City Regional 0.72 2.60 1.91 1.49 66 maspr 2 New England Pioneer Valley Event 1.12 2.59 1.89 1.51 67 orore 1 PNW Oregon City Event 1.10 2.56 1.86 1.44 68 qcmo 4 Regional Montreal Regional 0.78 2.67 1.86 1.45 69 micen 5 Michigan Center Line Event 0.84 2.58 1.85 1.37 70 okok 5 Regional Oklahoma Regional 0.67 2.24 1.82 1.51 71 mabos 5 New England Northeastern University Event 0.91 2.54 1.82 1.45 72 vari 4 Regional Virginia Regional 0.64 2.17 1.81 1.57 73 txlu 5 Regional Hub City Regional 0.80 2.50 1.81 1.43 74 tnkn 6 Regional Smoky Moutains Regional 0.70 2.46 1.78 1.38 75 nyny 3 Regional New York City Regional 0.57 2.10 1.76 1.44 76 dcwa 5 Regional Greater DC Regional 0.77 2.10 1.75 1.41 77 washo 4 PNW Shorewood Event 0.99 2.55 1.75 1.29 78 gape 1 Regional Georgia Southern Classic Regional 0.79 2.38 1.75 1.36 79 nhnas 1 New England Granite State Event 0.90 2.37 1.75 1.38 80 waell 4 PNW Central Washington University Event 1.01 2.37 1.74 1.33 81 manda 3 New England Umass Dartmouth Event 1.14 2.57 1.74 1.20 82 wasno 2 PNW Glacier Peak Event 1.00 2.38 1.73 1.34 83 code 5 Regional Colorado Regional 0.78 2.39 1.73 1.40 84 waahs 5 PNW Auburn Event 0.94 2.46 1.67 1.24 85 orwil 3 PNW Wilsonville Event 0.99 2.31 1.66 1.28 86 mitry 6 Michigan Troy Event 0.80 2.71 1.65 1.18 87 txho 6 Regional Lone Star Regional 0.66 1.99 1.62 1.32 88 azpx 6 Regional Arizona West Regional 0.83 2.16 1.60 1.13 89 inkok 3 Indiana Kokomo City Event 0.89 2.36 1.59 1.11 90 miket 2 Michigan Kettering University Event 0.66 2.47 1.58 1.12 91 melew 3 New England Pine Tree Event 0.89 2.05 1.55 1.16 92 marea 2 New England Reading Event 0.69 2.21 1.54 1.18 93 ncre 4 Regional North Carolina Regional 0.50 1.88 1.52 1.17 94 mimid 4 Michigan Great Lakes Bay Region Event 0.67 2.21 1.49 1.10 95 orphi 5 PNW Philomath Event 0.83 1.67 1.35 1.06 96 migul 3 Michigan Gull Lake Event 0.54 1.77 1.23 0.89 97 abca 6 Regional Western Canada Regional 0.57 1.87 1.22 0.83 98 waspo 2 PNW West Valley Event 0.80 1.77 1.21 0.84 99 milan 6 Michigan Lansing Event 0.59 1.81 1.19 0.79 100 mxmc 2 Regional Mexico City Regional 0.53 1.58 1.12 0.88 101 miesc 5 Michigan Escanaba Event 0.54 1.49 0.98 0.66 102 ausy 3 Regional Australia Regional 0.39 1.90 0.96 0.64 103 mista 1 Michigan Standish Event 0.40 1.15 0.82 0.57 104 mibed 6 Michigan Bedford Event 0.58 0.73 0.50 0.50 Sorted by Top 24: Code:
Rank Event Code Week Type Event Name Average top8 top16 top24 1 arfa 2 Regional Arkansas Rock City Regional 1.29 3.98 3.10 2.61 2 pahat 1 MAR Hatboro-Horsham Event 1.67 4.22 3.26 2.49 3 txda 1 Regional Dallas Regional 1.34 4.80 3.26 2.47 4 casj 6 Regional Silicon Valley Regional 1.00 3.77 2.69 2.16 5 miwmi 4 Michigan West Michigan Event 1.36 3.61 2.68 2.15 6 flor 3 Regional Orlando Regional 0.96 3.16 2.61 2.15 7 njfla 2 MAR Mt Olive Event 1.50 3.49 2.67 2.14 8 ohci 6 Regional Queen City Regional 1.20 3.36 2.58 2.13 9 flfo 1 Regional South Florida 1.15 3.38 2.63 2.12 10 utwv 3 Regional Utah Regional 1.12 3.23 2.53 2.12 11 miwat 2 Michigan Waterford Event 1.30 3.76 2.80 2.11 12 onwa 4 Regional Waterloo Regional 1.80 4.23 2.81 2.10 13 papi 2 Regional Greater Pittsburgh Regional 1.15 3.02 2.53 2.09 14 njbri 5 MAR Bridgewater-Raritran Event 1.38 3.38 2.68 2.08 15 onto 3 Regional Greater Toronto Regional 1.14 3.47 2.59 2.04 16 wimi 4 Regional Wisconsin Regional 1.04 3.07 2.40 2.02 17 miliv 5 Michigan Livonia Event 1.24 3.77 2.63 2.02 18 cama 2 Regional Central Valley Regional 1.10 3.57 2.53 2.02 19 ohcl 5 Regional Buckeye Regional 0.98 3.01 2.43 2.01 20 hiho 5 Regional Hawaii Regional 1.39 3.60 2.57 1.99 21 nvlv 5 Regional Las Vegas Regional 1.02 3.82 2.62 1.97 22 calb 3 Regional Los Angeles Regional 0.83 3.38 2.47 1.96 23 mihow 1 Michigan Howell Event 1.30 3.27 2.42 1.95 24 paphi 3 MAR Springside Chestnut Hill Event 1.41 3.35 2.42 1.93 25 ilil 4 Regional Central Illinois Regional 1.33 3.03 2.34 1.92 26 onwi 6 Regional Windsor Essex Great Lakes Regional 1.01 3.51 2.40 1.90 27 cthar 5 New England Hartford Event 1.31 3.35 2.49 1.88 28 casa 4 Regional Sacramento Regional 0.93 3.34 2.33 1.87 29 scmb 1 Regional Palmetto Regional 0.84 2.49 2.14 1.87 30 waamv 1 PNW Auburn Mountainview Event 1.44 3.36 2.49 1.85 31 onto2 2 Regional Greater Toronto Central Regional 1.07 3.71 2.46 1.84 32 lake 4 Regional Bayou Regional 0.87 3.04 2.33 1.84 33 nyro 5 Regional Finger Lakes Regional 1.08 2.92 2.34 1.82 34 mndu2 1 Regional Northern Lights 0.75 3.23 2.30 1.78 35 txsa 3 Regional Alamo Regional 0.70 3.03 2.32 1.76 36 nytr 4 Regional New York Tech Valley Regional 1.26 2.64 2.19 1.76 37 wamou 3 PNW Mount Vernon Event 1.33 3.29 2.26 1.75 38 carm 1 Regional Inland Empire R egional 1.20 3.68 2.35 1.72 39 mdcp 6 Regional Chesapeake Regional 0.81 2.72 2.12 1.72 40 njtab 4 MAR Seneca Event 1.11 3.27 2.37 1.71 41 padre 5 MAR Upper Darby Event 1.23 2.92 2.18 1.71 42 ctwat 1 New England Waterbury Event 1.30 3.04 2.22 1.70 43 azch 4 Regional Arizona East Regional 1.05 2.73 2.16 1.70 44 inind 1 Indiana Indianapolis Event 1.19 2.97 2.26 1.70 45 nyli 5 Regional SBPLI Long Island Regoinal 0.91 2.35 2.03 1.70 46 ilch 6 Regional Midwest Regional 0.86 2.93 2.09 1.67 47 onnb 5 Regional North Bay Regional 1.13 2.75 2.13 1.66 48 inwla 4 Indiana Purdue Event 1.08 2.98 2.18 1.66 49 casd 6 Regional San Diego Regional 0.72 3.03 2.12 1.66 50 gadu 5 Regional Peachtree Regional 0.65 2.39 1.99 1.65 51 rismi 4 New England Rhode Island Event 1.06 2.98 2.21 1.62 52 nhdur 4 New England UNH Event 1.03 2.73 2.06 1.62 53 cave 5 Regional Ventura Regional 1.25 3.29 2.22 1.61 54 mnmi 6 Regional Minneosta 10000 Lakes Regional 0.74 2.69 2.00 1.61 55 mifla 3 Michigan Woodhaven Event 1.15 3.20 2.21 1.58 56 vari 4 Regional Virginia Regional 0.64 2.17 1.81 1.57 57 mnni2 6 Regional Minnesota North Star Regional 0.66 2.84 2.01 1.57 58 misou 1 Michigan Southfield Event 0.95 3.27 2.17 1.56 59 mosl 4 Regional St Louis Regional 0.90 2.98 2.06 1.56 60 misjo 4 Michigan St Joseph Event 1.04 3.37 2.24 1.55 61 mndu 1 Regional Lake Superior Regional 0.68 2.52 1.91 1.55 62 njnbr 6 MAR North Brunswick Event 1.15 3.02 2.08 1.54 63 mitvc 3 Michigan Traverse City Event 0.91 3.02 2.05 1.51 64 ista 3 Regional Israel Regional 0.72 2.41 1.92 1.51 65 okok 5 Regional Oklahoma Regional 0.67 2.24 1.82 1.51 66 maspr 2 New England Pioneer Valley Event 1.12 2.59 1.89 1.51 67 mokc 3 Regional Greater Kansas City Regional 0.72 2.60 1.91 1.49 68 miken 2 Michigan Kentwood Event 0.97 2.73 1.98 1.47 69 qcmo 4 Regional Montreal Regional 0.78 2.67 1.86 1.45 70 mabos 5 New England Northeastern University Event 0.91 2.54 1.82 1.45 71 nyny 3 Regional New York City Regional 0.57 2.10 1.76 1.44 72 orore 1 PNW Oregon City Event 1.10 2.56 1.86 1.44 73 txlu 5 Regional Hub City Regional 0.80 2.50 1.81 1.43 74 dcwa 5 Regional Greater DC Regional 0.77 2.10 1.75 1.41 75 code 5 Regional Colorado Regional 0.78 2.39 1.73 1.40 76 tnkn 6 Regional Smoky Moutains Regional 0.70 2.46 1.78 1.38 77 nhnas 1 New England Granite State Event 0.90 2.37 1.75 1.38 78 micen 5 Michigan Center Line Event 0.84 2.58 1.85 1.37 79 gape 1 Regional Georgia Southern Classic Regional 0.79 2.38 1.75 1.36 80 wasno 2 PNW Glacier Peak Event 1.00 2.38 1.73 1.34 81 waell 4 PNW Central Washington University Event 1.01 2.37 1.74 1.33 82 txho 6 Regional Lone Star Regional 0.66 1.99 1.62 1.32 83 washo 4 PNW Shorewood Event 0.99 2.55 1.75 1.29 84 orwil 3 PNW Wilsonville Event 0.99 2.31 1.66 1.28 85 waahs 5 PNW Auburn Event 0.94 2.46 1.67 1.24 86 manda 3 New England Umass Dartmouth Event 1.14 2.57 1.74 1.20 87 marea 2 New England Reading Event 0.69 2.21 1.54 1.18 88 mitry 6 Michigan Troy Event 0.80 2.71 1.65 1.18 89 ncre 4 Regional North Carolina Regional 0.50 1.88 1.52 1.17 90 melew 3 New England Pine Tree Event 0.89 2.05 1.55 1.16 91 azpx 6 Regional Arizona West Regional 0.83 2.16 1.60 1.13 92 miket 2 Michigan Kettering University Event 0.66 2.47 1.58 1.12 93 inkok 3 Indiana Kokomo City Event 0.89 2.36 1.59 1.11 94 mimid 4 Michigan Great Lakes Bay Region Event 0.67 2.21 1.49 1.10 95 orphi 5 PNW Philomath Event 0.83 1.67 1.35 1.06 96 migul 3 Michigan Gull Lake Event 0.54 1.77 1.23 0.89 97 mxmc 2 Regional Mexico City Regional 0.53 1.58 1.12 0.88 98 waspo 2 PNW West Valley Event 0.80 1.77 1.21 0.84 99 abca 6 Regional Western Canada Regional 0.57 1.87 1.22 0.83 100 milan 6 Michigan Lansing Event 0.59 1.81 1.19 0.79 101 miesc 5 Michigan Escanaba Event 0.54 1.49 0.98 0.66 102 ausy 3 Regional Australia Regional 0.39 1.90 0.96 0.64 103 mista 1 Michigan Standish Event 0.40 1.15 0.82 0.57 104 mibed 6 Michigan Bedford Event 0.58 0.73 0.50 0.50 Sorted by Average aWAR: Code:
Rank Event Code Week Type Event Name Average top8 top16 top24 1 onwa 4 Regional Waterloo Regional 1.80 4.23 2.81 2.10 2 pahat 1 MAR Hatboro-Horsham Event 1.67 4.22 3.26 2.49 3 njfla 2 MAR Mt Olive Event 1.50 3.49 2.67 2.14 4 waamv 1 PNW Auburn Mountainview Event 1.44 3.36 2.49 1.85 5 paphi 3 MAR Springside Chestnut Hill Event 1.41 3.35 2.42 1.93 6 hiho 5 Regional Hawaii Regional 1.39 3.60 2.57 1.99 7 njbri 5 MAR Bridgewater-Raritran Event 1.38 3.38 2.68 2.08 8 miwmi 4 Michigan West Michigan Event 1.36 3.61 2.68 2.15 9 txda 1 Regional Dallas Regional 1.34 4.80 3.26 2.47 10 wamou 3 PNW Mount Vernon Event 1.33 3.29 2.26 1.75 11 ilil 4 Regional Central Illinois Regional 1.33 3.03 2.34 1.92 12 cthar 5 New England Hartford Event 1.31 3.35 2.49 1.88 13 mihow 1 Michigan Howell Event 1.30 3.27 2.42 1.95 14 ctwat 1 New England Waterbury Event 1.30 3.04 2.22 1.70 15 miwat 2 Michigan Waterford Event 1.30 3.76 2.80 2.11 16 arfa 2 Regional Arkansas Rock City Regional 1.29 3.98 3.10 2.61 17 nytr 4 Regional New York Tech Valley Regional 1.26 2.64 2.19 1.76 18 cave 5 Regional Ventura Regional 1.25 3.29 2.22 1.61 19 miliv 5 Michigan Livonia Event 1.24 3.77 2.63 2.02 20 padre 5 MAR Upper Darby Event 1.23 2.92 2.18 1.71 21 ohci 6 Regional Queen City Regional 1.20 3.36 2.58 2.13 22 carm 1 Regional Inland Empire R egional 1.20 3.68 2.35 1.72 23 inind 1 Indiana Indianapolis Event 1.19 2.97 2.26 1.70 24 mifla 3 Michigan Woodhaven Event 1.15 3.20 2.21 1.58 25 njnbr 6 MAR North Brunswick Event 1.15 3.02 2.08 1.54 26 flfo 1 Regional South Florida 1.15 3.38 2.63 2.12 27 papi 2 Regional Greater Pittsburgh Regional 1.15 3.02 2.53 2.09 28 onto 3 Regional Greater Toronto Regional 1.14 3.47 2.59 2.04 29 manda 3 New England Umass Dartmouth Event 1.14 2.57 1.74 1.20 30 onnb 5 Regional North Bay Regional 1.13 2.75 2.13 1.66 31 utwv 3 Regional Utah Regional 1.12 3.23 2.53 2.12 32 maspr 2 New England Pioneer Valley Event 1.12 2.59 1.89 1.51 33 njtab 4 MAR Seneca Event 1.11 3.27 2.37 1.71 34 cama 2 Regional Central Valley Regional 1.10 3.57 2.53 2.02 35 orore 1 PNW Oregon City Event 1.10 2.56 1.86 1.44 36 nyro 5 Regional Finger Lakes Regional 1.08 2.92 2.34 1.82 37 inwla 4 Indiana Purdue Event 1.08 2.98 2.18 1.66 38 onto2 2 Regional Greater Toronto Central Regional 1.07 3.71 2.46 1.84 39 rismi 4 New England Rhode Island Event 1.06 2.98 2.21 1.62 40 azch 4 Regional Arizona East Regional 1.05 2.73 2.16 1.70 41 wimi 4 Regional Wisconsin Regional 1.04 3.07 2.40 2.02 42 misjo 4 Michigan St Joseph Event 1.04 3.37 2.24 1.55 43 nhdur 4 New England UNH Event 1.03 2.73 2.06 1.62 44 nvlv 5 Regional Las Vegas Regional 1.02 3.82 2.62 1.97 45 onwi 6 Regional Windsor Essex Great Lakes Regional 1.01 3.51 2.40 1.90 46 waell 4 PNW Central Washington University Event 1.01 2.37 1.74 1.33 47 wasno 2 PNW Glacier Peak Event 1.00 2.38 1.73 1.34 48 casj 6 Regional Silicon Valley Regional 1.00 3.77 2.69 2.16 49 washo 4 PNW Shorewood Event 0.99 2.55 1.75 1.29 50 orwil 3 PNW Wilsonville Event 0.99 2.31 1.66 1.28 51 ohcl 5 Regional Buckeye Regional 0.98 3.01 2.43 2.01 52 miken 2 Michigan Kentwood Event 0.97 2.73 1.98 1.47 53 flor 3 Regional Orlando Regional 0.96 3.16 2.61 2.15 54 misou 1 Michigan Southfield Event 0.95 3.27 2.17 1.56 55 waahs 5 PNW Auburn Event 0.94 2.46 1.67 1.24 56 casa 4 Regional Sacramento Regional 0.93 3.34 2.33 1.87 57 mitvc 3 Michigan Traverse City Event 0.91 3.02 2.05 1.51 58 nyli 5 Regional SBPLI Long Island Regoinal 0.91 2.35 2.03 1.70 59 mabos 5 New England Northeastern University Event 0.91 2.54 1.82 1.45 60 mosl 4 Regional St Louis Regional 0.90 2.98 2.06 1.56 61 nhnas 1 New England Granite State Event 0.90 2.37 1.75 1.38 62 inkok 3 Indiana Kokomo City Event 0.89 2.36 1.59 1.11 63 melew 3 New England Pine Tree Event 0.89 2.05 1.55 1.16 64 lake 4 Regional Bayou Regional 0.87 3.04 2.33 1.84 65 ilch 6 Regional Midwest Regional 0.86 2.93 2.09 1.67 66 scmb 1 Regional Palmetto Regional 0.84 2.49 2.14 1.87 67 micen 5 Michigan Center Line Event 0.84 2.58 1.85 1.37 68 calb 3 Regional Los Angeles Regional 0.83 3.38 2.47 1.96 69 orphi 5 PNW Philomath Event 0.83 1.67 1.35 1.06 70 azpx 6 Regional Arizona West Regional 0.83 2.16 1.60 1.13 71 mdcp 6 Regional Chesapeake Regional 0.81 2.72 2.12 1.72 72 waspo 2 PNW West Valley Event 0.80 1.77 1.21 0.84 73 mitry 6 Michigan Troy Event 0.80 2.71 1.65 1.18 74 txlu 5 Regional Hub City Regional 0.80 2.50 1.81 1.43 75 gape 1 Regional Georgia Southern Classic Regional 0.79 2.38 1.75 1.36 76 code 5 Regional Colorado Regional 0.78 2.39 1.73 1.40 77 qcmo 4 Regional Montreal Regional 0.78 2.67 1.86 1.45 78 dcwa 5 Regional Greater DC Regional 0.77 2.10 1.75 1.41 79 mndu2 1 Regional Northern Lights 0.75 3.23 2.30 1.78 80 mnmi 6 Regional Minneosta 10000 Lakes Regional 0.74 2.69 2.00 1.61 81 mokc 3 Regional Greater Kansas City Regional 0.72 2.60 1.91 1.49 82 ista 3 Regional Israel Regional 0.72 2.41 1.92 1.51 83 casd 6 Regional San Diego Regional 0.72 3.03 2.12 1.66 84 txsa 3 Regional Alamo Regional 0.70 3.03 2.32 1.76 85 tnkn 6 Regional Smoky Moutains Regional 0.70 2.46 1.78 1.38 86 marea 2 New England Reading Event 0.69 2.21 1.54 1.18 87 mndu 1 Regional Lake Superior Regional 0.68 2.52 1.91 1.55 88 okok 5 Regional Oklahoma Regional 0.67 2.24 1.82 1.51 89 mimid 4 Michigan Great Lakes Bay Region Event 0.67 2.21 1.49 1.10 90 miket 2 Michigan Kettering University Event 0.66 2.47 1.58 1.12 91 mnni2 6 Regional Minnesota North Star Regional 0.66 2.84 2.01 1.57 92 txho 6 Regional Lone Star Regional 0.66 1.99 1.62 1.32 93 gadu 5 Regional Peachtree Regional 0.65 2.39 1.99 1.65 94 vari 4 Regional Virginia Regional 0.64 2.17 1.81 1.57 95 milan 6 Michigan Lansing Event 0.59 1.81 1.19 0.79 96 mibed 6 Michigan Bedford Event 0.58 0.73 0.50 0.50 97 nyny 3 Regional New York City Regional 0.57 2.10 1.76 1.44 98 abca 6 Regional Western Canada Regional 0.57 1.87 1.22 0.83 99 miesc 5 Michigan Escanaba Event 0.54 1.49 0.98 0.66 100 migul 3 Michigan Gull Lake Event 0.54 1.77 1.23 0.89 101 mxmc 2 Regional Mexico City Regional 0.53 1.58 1.12 0.88 102 ncre 4 Regional North Carolina Regional 0.50 1.88 1.52 1.17 103 mista 1 Michigan Standish Event 0.40 1.15 0.82 0.57 104 ausy 3 Regional Australia Regional 0.39 1.90 0.96 0.64
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#20
18-12-2014, 10:44
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Re: Strongest regional competitions
Quote:
I've been toying with concepts like this in my head as well. I'd like to create an index that tries to compare performance at different events more fairly, similar to the way baseball stats can adjust for things like park effects, league effects, different levels of offense in different years, and so on. Rather than average OPR for the event, for evaluating replacement level I'd probably favor something like average OPR of teams 20-28 on the OPR list. And for evaluating the difficulty of winning the event, I'd probably look at the average OPR of the top 4-8 teams, or maybe even just the top 2-3. It depends what one is looking for. If you want to know how hard an event is to WIN, then you mainly need to look at the strength of the top two teams other than your own team to know how high the bar is. If you want to gauge how hard it is to make the semifinals, on the other hand, you're probably looking at the strength of the top 10 or so teams, because you want to be in that group to have a good shot at getting on the top 5 or so alliances and avoid being the underdog in the quarterfinals. I'm just spitballing here, but I think it might make sense to weight the value of an event win by average of the top ~3 teams, compared to the average of the top ~3 across ALL events. Then assign more or less value to a win based on how the event stacks up. And that's for 1st and 2nd robots on the alliance - I'd probably want to do something different for the 2nd pick or a backup robot. For finalists (robots 1+2) I'm probably looking at the average of robots ~3-5 compared to that average for all events. And so on. This has issues and it's a loose idea in my mind so far, but I think that would provide a bit more of a basis for comparing a team's win at Event A to another team's semifinalist finish at Event B.
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