Predictions Week Three: Recycling Strategies

[Looking Forward]

The first two weeks of Recycle Rush have been a feeling out process, as teams learn to deal with a game unlike any other in recent memory. The engineering challenge of recycle rush was more difficult than the past several, and so far the top teams have simply been those who created a solution that allowed for repeatable success. There’s a pretty stark contrast between teams that can quickly and consistently acquire and manipulate game pieces, and those that have to spend considerable time aligning with or reorienting objects. As a result, the strategic play has been fairly shallow at most events. With most teams still taking the field for the first time in week three, expect more of the same. However, as some teams begin to apply their lessons learned from previous events, the first hints of higher level play may start to emerge in the coming weeks.

Successful playoff alliances have largely fallen into two categories so far; those with top flight machines capable of creating capped five or six stacks independently, or collaborative alliances that work together to create several capped shorter stacks. While the later alliances have had some success at mid-tier events, often the only way to stop alliances in the former category is to hope for fallen stacks or disabled robots. The collaborative stacking alliances typically require solid inputs from all three teams, often with a capping specialist working to triple the value of stacks from another team and teams working out of both feeder stations and the landfill. This typically requires a home run in the second round, a benefit of superior scouting, lunch-time modifications, or re-imagined roles within an alliance. By contract, the role of the second round selection on the powerhouse alliances is frequently to avoid getting in the way. If the top scoring machines work the loading stations, maybe the final member fishes for containers on the step or contributes a few points via the landfill, but in some cases their job is to literally sit still by the edge of the field and contribute with their human player.

Fewer powerhouses are taking the field this week, and no event is stacked the extent of Dallas or Rock City. Several of the most well-known teams taking the field this weekend didn't reach their expectations at their prior event, and will be looking to build off of what they started. A lot of the action this weekend will be based on what teams have done with their withholding allowances, and if they’ve managed to tailor their machines to realities of Recycle Rush.

(IN) Kokomo City of Firsts District:
Despite hosting a mere 32 teams, Kokomo is battle tested. A full half of the roster unbagged two weeks ago, and that experience should pay off as teams look to better adapt their robots to the field of play. Despite the heavy turnover, many of the top teams from Indianapolis will be missing in Kokomo, including half of the finalists and five of the top 8 seeds. However, there shouldn't be an issue filling the top few alliances with high powered stacking machines, especially from the human player station. 1024 ranked on top, but fell just short of gold, on their home turf two weeks ago and is seeking redemption. 1501 and 829 were members of the alliance that bested the Kil-a-Bytes and should be factors once again. 107 demonstrated some potential in Howell, and if they can works the kinks out, stand a very good chance at being an alliance captain (even if the points here wont help their Michigan standings). 234 and 4103 also had strong showings in Indianapolis, seeding 2nd and 5th respectively. Two of the most storied teams at the event, 68 and 71, will be taking the field for the first time, and while they'll certainly be factors, it will be interesting to see how much of a learning curve they have. With such a small field, it's unlikely that there will be steals available late in alliance selection. This event will likely come down to which alliance can assemble the best one-two punch.

(NE) UMass Dartmouth District:
Despite what seemed like a dream alliance on paper, 125 was ousted in the quarterfinals in South Florida. However, they secured their championship berth via Chairman's and will be showing up in North Dartmouth with more than just a tan. Both 230 and 1519 had great early performances and are coming in with a Blue Banners under there belts, they will have to refine there game if they want to stay on top of the pack here. At Waterbury 155 and 1124 showed they were an excellent compliment and capable of creating stacks, keep your eyes on these two come alliance selection. Team 246 has everyone beat in terms of time on the controls, with not one, but two Districts already played and a Blue Banner from the second, their creative design seems to be working out well for them. 88 Seems to have their groove back this year, ending up ranking 3rd at their first event and moving through to the semis. The locals 78 and 121 have been perennial contenders for years, as they take the field for the first time this season look for them to make waves. A dark horse at this event, 5112 had a solid rookie season with a simple bot, if they can continue this trend, expect good things from them in 2015.

Orlando Regional:
Heading into UCF, 2383 looks like the favorite. The Ninjaneers are coming off their razor-thin victory in Ft. Lauderdale, and if they can maintain their elimination form, shouldn't have much trouble ending up on a top alliance. Palmetto champs 4451, week 1 alliance captain 3242, 744 and 1592 (who combined forces on the number 1 alliance in South Florida) will be right there with them. On the other hand, 180, 1251, and 1902 didn't match what was expected of them in South Florida, with SPAM and Exploding Bacon falling in the quarters and the Tech Tigers missing eliminations all together. Bacon hedged that with an impressive Chairman's win, but all three will be looking to boost their on-field results in Orlando. Mix in the debuts from typical Floridian contenders like 79 and 3556 and there's all the fixings for a deep and competitive event.

Alamo Regional:
Proven stacker and favorite - 1296
Can specialist - 4063
Potential, but have to get it working first - 233, 2415
Contenders - 231, 1817, 2468, 3999

Australia Regional:
Won 13 of their last 15 regionals (and finalists at the other 2) - 359
Impressive reveal video - 4613
Veterans in a rookie field - 3008, 3132

Greater Kansas City Regional:
Should impress in their first outing - 1730, 1775, 1806
Topped 100 points seven times in Little Rock - 4522
Breakout candidates, if they can work out their issues - 2357, 5013, 5098

Greater Toronto East Regional:
Favorites to stay perfect - 2056
Not great scores, but had an event to remember off the field last week - 1241
Hoping to get picked early - 781, 3173, 3387, 3990, 4718

Los Angeles Regional:
Building at the event - 973, 1717
Favorites to stack and cap their way to a win - 330
In the hunt - 294, 696, 1197

New York City Regional:
Local contenders – 271, 334, 358, 375, 694
International rookies – 5452, 5453, 5558, 5773, 5781
Visitors looking for hardware - 229, 1860

Utah Regional:
Trying for their first two-win season in team history - 624
Definite factors - 192, 2122
Hoping to pull off an upset - 1836, 2486, 2996

(FIM) Gull Lake District:
First of (at least) three events - 2834, 3641
Should lock down a MSC spot - 3656
Didn't look pretty in the playoffs previously, but experience should help - 830, 1504, 3875

(FIM) Traverse City District:
Speedy short stacker - 862
Stack capper - 1711
Kicking off a new season - 51, 2474, 3618

(FIM) Woodhaven District:
Decent chance at getting their third banner of 2015 - 1023
FiM heavyweight debuts - 469, 3539
Can specialists on their previous alliances - 27, 3322

(MAR) Springside Chestnut Hill District:
Aiming to improve - 341, 486
Favorites felled by a fallen stack - 1218
Three-peat threats- 225
Hopeful debuts- 365, 3929

(NE) Pine Tree District:
Hometown Heroes - 58, 2648, 4564, 4473
Visiting Contenders - 3525, 348
Proven RC Specialist - 95
Promising Sophomore - 5122

(PNW) Mount Vernon District:
Going streaking (together) - 1318, 1983
Knocked out by a knocked down stack - 3663, 4911
Finalists previously, with room to still improve - 2046, 2907
First event, but plenty of practice time - 2980

(PNW) Wilsonville District:
Working hard to improve on a semi-final finish - 2471
Solid machines capable of a deep run - 955, 1540
Kings of Kiwi Drive - 1425

[g_sawchuk]

Once again, an awesome set of predictions. However, I'm surprised to not see 4476 on the list for GTRE considering their performance last year.

[Jay O'Donnell]

Glad to see 4473 getting some attention at Pine Tree. Great group of kids and mentors that I hope to work with every year.

[Procolsaurus]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

Orlando Regional:
Heading into UCF, 2383 looks like the favorite. The Ninjaneers are coming off their razor-thin victory in Ft. Lauderdale, and if they can maintain their elimination form, shouldn't have much trouble ending up on a top alliance. Palmetto champs 4451, week 1 alliance captain 3242, 744 and 1592 (who combined forces on the number 1 alliance in South Florida) will be right there with them. On the other hand, 180, 1251, and 1902 didn't match what was expected of them in South Florida, with SPAM and Exploding Bacon falling in the quarters and the Tech Tigers missing eliminations all together. Bacon hedged that with an impressive Chairman's win, but all three will be looking to boost their on-field results in Orlando. Mix in the debuts from typical Floridian contenders like 79 and 3556 and there's all the fixings for a deep and competitive event.

Seems to be a mix up here. 1902 attended the Georgia Southern Classic Regional, where they won the Chairman's award. 180, 179, and 125 went out in the quarterfinals in the South Florida Regional.

[brrian27]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

Heading into UCF, 2383 looks like the favorite.

Wow, so stoked that my old team was mentioned for the first time. So proud of them and their first regional win ever in South Florida, and I can't wait to see what they do in Orlando!!

[Akash Rastogi]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

(MAR) Springside Chestnut Hill District:
Aiming to improve - 341, 486
Favorites felled by a fallen stack - 1218
Three-peat threats- 225
Hopeful debuts- 365, 3929

Super cool to see 3929 mentioned! Here's their robot if anyone wants to check it out.
I'm also very eager to see 3974, they've been great for the past few seasons.

[Nathan Streeter]

Thanks for the mention! UMass Dartmouth should definitely be a very interesting event, with plenty of New England's finest, but only 28 teams on the list... how that shakes out in qualification matches and elim matches should be very interesting!

Woodhaven, Mount Vernon, GTRE, and the LA Regional should all also be interesting... particularly in elimination matches.

[Jacob Bendicksen]

Thanks for the shoutout! We're hoping to improve on Oregon City's performance.

[Brandon Holley]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

Thanks for the mention! UMass Dartmouth should definitely be a very interesting event, with plenty of New England's finest, but only 28 teams on the list... how that shakes out in qualification matches and elim matches should be very interesting!

Woodhaven, Mount Vernon, GTRE, and the LA Regional should all also be interesting... particularly in elimination matches.

Completely agree about UMD. There will actually only be 27 teams due to a rookie team dropping out post kickoff, and a lot of NE firepower. I'm excited to see what that brings!

-Brando

[JamesCH95]

Thank you for the mention!

95 is excited to debut our RC-handling improvements at Pine Tree this weekend!

[MamaSpoldi]

Thanks for the mention! It's always fun to see our team # in "print". We are definitely looking forward to playing with some of NE finest. With only 27 teams now, the scouting will be even more critical for 2nd picks.

[Dunngeon]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

(PNW) Wilsonville District:
Working hard to improve on a semi-final finish - 2471
Solid machines capable of a deep run - 955, 1540
Kings of Kiwi Drive - 1425

Thanks for the mention!

It should be noted that 1425 isn't doing kiwi drive this year, instead opting for a 4cim 2 omni 2 traction wheel drive.

[MrJ-3974]

Originally Posted by Akash Rastogi

I'm also very eager to see 3974, they've been great for the past few seasons.

Thanks for the mention. We're very excited to get our machine on the field at Chestnut Hill.

We're excited to see the debuts of 225 and our mentors 433. Here's hoping we can once again ally with 1712 and 4373, our partners on the Chestnut Hill #8-seed last year when we upset #1!

[Navid Shafa]

Originally Posted by Dunngeon

It should be noted that 1425 isn't doing kiwi drive this year, instead opting for a 4cim 2 omni 2 traction wheel drive.

That's pretty surprising, would have been a good year for it. I wonder what they put their resources into this year. I'm excited to see what they show off, it's always something creative, unique, and competitive.

[Riverdance]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

(NE) UMass Dartmouth District:
At Waterbury 155 and 1124 showed they were an excellent compliment and capable of creating stacks, keep your eyes on these two come alliance selection.

Thanks for the shoutout! We've been working very hard these last two weeks to bring the robot up an extra notch! Very, very excited for this weekend. Such a small event is going to make for a very interesting alliance selection.