2015 OPR After Week Two Event

[Ed Law]

The OPR/CCWM numbers after two weeks of events have been posted, please see

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2174

If you find any error or have any questions, please let me know.

[Citrus Dad]

How are you handling "DPR"? If you're including coopertition points in the OPR, then adding coop points should not raise the CCWM--coop points raise the opposing alliance score by an equal amount. In that case, the difference between the OPR (that includes coop pts) and the CCWM should be the average coop points. In the past this would be interpreted as the "DPR." When I looked at the stats on one of the sites that had all three (TBA?), the sum of the CCWM and DPR closely approximated the OPR which was what I expected (even if there were some oddities among a couple of teams).

It looks like the residual computation of DPR in your database also closely approximates the average coop score. I think unlike past years, the CCWM may be a much better measure of robot offensive capability in the elimination rounds than the OPR due to this distortion from scoring in quals that is not available in the playoffs.

BTW, this may also reveal how the DPR is not a particularly valid measure for determining "defensive" ability. It shows how a team's alliance scored ia affected but NOT how an opposing alliance's score is changed from its potential. A valid DPR would measure how the OPR of the opposing alliance is affected by a single team on the subject alliance. That's a more complicated two-stage analysis than what is done here.

[Ed Law]

OPR has different components, one of which is from coop points. You are correct in saying that CCWM points is not raised because of scoring coop points. However OPR and CCWM are not related at all. I don't think the difference between OPR and CCWM is the average coop points. This statement is only true if your opposing alliance never score a single point in all your matches and their score is only from the coop points.

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by Ed Law

OPR has different components, one of which is from coop points. You are correct in saying that CCWM points is not raised because of scoring coop points. However OPR and CCWM are not related at all. I don't think the difference between OPR and CCWM is the average coop points. This statement is only true if your opposing alliance never score a single point in all your matches and their score is only from the coop points.

You're right. I rethought my point after I wrote the post. However a much more useful measure is the "net" OPR that subtracts the average coop points per match. Including coop points greatly distorts the true offensive output of the robot particularly for elimination rounds. This is a case where the quals OPR may not be representative of the elims OPR.

On a separate point, this year may reveal that the "DPR" actually isn't a a measure of the defensive ability of a robot. The average OPR is about 14.7 so far and the CCWM average is about 0 as usual. However, the only effective means that an opposing alliance has of influencing the score of an alliance is via throwing pool noodles. (Stealing center cans hasn't come into play in the quals rounds yet.) The DPR implies that each alliance is AVERAGING more than 2 noodles per match on the opposing side. That most certainly has not been the case in the regionals that I've watched.

[Nemo]

My tongue in cheek equation for DPR this year:

DPR = allies' average score while playing with other allies minus your allies' average score while playing with you

That's because the type of "defense" played this year is of the variety where your partners get in your way and inadvertently play defense on you.

Ed - thanks for your continued efforts to put out this data. I love the data.

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

On a separate point, this year may reveal that the "DPR" actually isn't a a measure of the defensive ability of a robot. The average OPR is about 14.7 so far and the CCWM average is about 0 as usual. However, the only effective means that an opposing alliance has of influencing the score of an alliance is via throwing pool noodles. (Stealing center cans hasn't come into play in the quals rounds yet.) The DPR implies that each alliance is AVERAGING more than 2 noodles per match on the opposing side. That most certainly has not been the case in the regionals that I've watched.

There's a much bigger way to influence the other team's score in qualifications: Say that you'll cooperate, and then fail to do so (on purpose or not). If they spend 30-60 seconds getting their yellow totes onto the platform and then you don't reciprocate, you'll have reduced the other alliance's score since that was 30-60 seconds they could've spent scoring.

Note that there are lots of ways to do this without ill intent:
-Simply failing to get your yellow totes across
-Knocking over their stack
-Tending to create tippy co-op stacks that the oppositions then tips over (and draws a penalty for)

Obviously, doing this maliciously to trick your opposition into wasting time would be tremendously un-GP.

A hypothesis that comes out of this idea is: There may be a correlation between DPR and co-op scoring. A team that's big on co-op scoring should see their opposition tend to score fewer tote or container points.

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by Bongle

There's a much bigger way to influence the other team's score in qualifications: Say that you'll cooperate, and then fail to do so (on purpose or not). If they spend 30-60 seconds getting their yellow totes onto the platform and then you don't reciprocate, you'll have reduced the other alliance's score since that was 30-60 seconds they could've spent scoring.

Note that there are lots of ways to do this without ill intent:
-Simply failing to get your yellow totes across
-Knocking over their stack
-Tending to create tippy co-op stacks that the oppositions then tips over (and draws a penalty for)

Obviously, doing this maliciously to trick your opposition into wasting time would be tremendously un-GP.

A hypothesis that comes out of this idea is: There may be a correlation between DPR and co-op scoring. A team that's big on co-op scoring should see their opposition tend to score fewer tote or container points.

I think you're right. Assuming that teams are being earnest in trying for coop points the "DPR" is actually a measure of coop stacking competence.

[Ed Law]

Just a heads up that I will be making changes to how the component OPR will be calculated. There will be no change to how OPR is calculated. The way I am calculating component OPR right now is the same for the last 2 years. The numbers that are reported right now is good but there may be room for improvement now that we know which teams are surrogate teams from the match results.

I am also adding a Foul component OPR. This number will usually be negative. This will potentially make the other component numbers higher.

I am still testing and finalizing how I will do it. It will be used in the Week 3 data. When I publish that, I will recalculate the Week 1 and 2 data. I will also explain clearly what I changed and the reasons behind it. Note that this does not change the Total OPR numbers or World Ranking which is based on total OPR.