1114 the Statistical Outlier

[eddie12390]

Originally Posted by DonRotolo

You see, that's the thing: 1114 is successful because they work at it, tenaciously and incessantly. But it's no secret: Not only do they post reams of information for all to see, Karthik has spoken at CMP about their process for as long as I can remember. Most are recorded and available somewhere.

The way I see it, beating 1114 is easy: Just do what they do, only more better.

The key to winning football games is scoring more points than the other team.

[The other Gabe]

Originally Posted by GrifBot

I would in fact agree with this point. However, you have to find a way to utilize every robot in order to succeed. Even if you have, per say, a very weak bin grabber, let that robot do that, even if it takes a little bit longer. You will have more time to stack, and they will cap in time. Just find the strong suits of each robot, even if they're small.

which they did do to a certain extent, but in this game there are two distinct strategies.
The 1st (and sometimes 2nd)-place alliance, which is the two best teams at the event. they both kinda do their own thing while the 3rd robot is off in a corner trying to stay out of the way while being as useful as possible (you'll see this at most events)
The later placed alliance that magically made it to finals: this team has everything down to a science. the all know who does what part of the process and has gotten it down to maximize their points. still usually lose to the first place alliance (as is what happened to my team at PNW Auburn Mountainview)

What I'm trying to say here is that if the first two (or sometimes even one robot) are good enough, the third alliance partner matters not. in other games they make all the difference, and they definitely will at worlds. the teams that prescribe to the first strategy can only make it so far when other alliances are maximizing scores with three quality robots on the field, something that is just so hard to do at a Regional or District level.

Did I actually end up responding to you? Cuz I was trying to say that sometimes the third robot means nothing (even if it usually helps)

[g_sawchuk]

Originally Posted by EricLeifermann

if you look at the scores for GTCR 1114 didn't need partners to win it.

Powerhouse teams pick strategies that allow them to not have to rely on their alliance partners because Quals can be a total crap shoot of who you get teamed up with. Being able to play the game by yourself is key to seeding high and then being able to pick other teams that play the game the way you want to play it.

1114 can and will play with other teams when necessary. It just wasn't (and might not be until Champs) at GTCR last weekend.

As someone said earlier if you need to justify your teams decision to build a robot that requires team work to perform by arguing against those who don't more power too you. Your challenge ins't 1114 its the scheduling deity to give you a qual schedule that pairs you with teams that compliment you so you can hope to score more than 140 points a match, to seed higher than the 1114's and hope they want you to pick them.

I meant win championships.

[The other Gabe]

Originally Posted by EricLeifermann

if you look at the scores for GTCR 1114 didn't need partners to win it.

610's tote Auto was used when they got 4 stacks of 6 with a container on top of all of them. (and I think they got a stack too)

[The other Gabe]

Originally Posted by Aidan H.

I don't know if you've seen this already, but it looks like they tried out their BinSwiper already (GTRC Quals 57): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7-NigYFrWo

It looks like their first 2 bins are captured at about 2 seconds (better speed it up 1114 , the "chokehold" number seems to be 1/4 sec!) and they have the other 2 at ~12 sec.

*For some reason, Q57 isn't on WFN, so we just have this video of their 4 bin auto... until Waterloo?

a very similar grabber deployment system to FRC 1318 (completely different way of getting them off that step, however)

[Mike Marandola]

Originally Posted by Karthik

If you want to learn more about our processes you can also check out the following resources:

Simbot Seminar Series: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...o6sOEVMR821tkV

Podcast with the EWCP describing our processes: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...ad.php?t=96123

Team Created Resources: http://www.simbotics.org/resources

The engineering notebooks from 2013 and 2014 are pretty interesting as well. Are there any plans to release one for this year?

[waialua359]

Originally Posted by DonRotolo

You see, that's the thing: 1114 is successful because they work at it, tenaciously and incessantly. But it's no secret: Not only do they post reams of information for all to see, Karthik has spoken at CMP about their process for as long as I can remember. Most are recorded and available somewhere.

The way I see it, beating 1114 is easy: Just do what they do, only more better.

Even out here in Australia, I heard that 1114 started CADing during week 3, and in previous seasons, normally later. A team that is able to spend that much time dissecting the game is pretty inspiring to say the least.
The one thing elite teams do is not spend all their time trying to make mechanisms work.
We spend a lot of time trying to make our ideas work, thus not being able to afford the time spent to wait that long given our situation and mentor resources.

1114 can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sure they can figure out where I heard it from.

[philso]

Originally Posted by Karthik

If you want to learn more about our processes you can also check out the following resources:

Simbot Seminar Series: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...o6sOEVMR821tkV

Podcast with the EWCP describing our processes: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...ad.php?t=96123

Team Created Resources: http://www.simbotics.org/resources

Thanks again, Karthik. I watched the "Strategic Design" video on several times in December and kept it and others in the series going as "background music" while doing paperwork at the office. I will have to download the podcast for future study.

Originally Posted by DonRotolo

You see, that's the thing: 1114 is successful because they work at it, tenaciously and incessantly. But it's no secret: Not only do they post reams of information for all to see, Karthik has spoken at CMP about their process for as long as I can remember. Most are recorded and available somewhere.

The way I see it, beating 1114 is easy: Just do what they do, only more better.

Originally Posted by waialua359

Even out here in Australia, I heard that 1114 started CADing during week 3, and in previous seasons, normally later. A team that is able to spend that much time dissecting the game is pretty inspiring to say the least.
The one thing elite teams do is not spend all their time trying to make mechanisms work.
We spend a lot of time trying to make our ideas work, thus not being able to afford the time spent to wait that long given our situation and mentor resources.

1114 can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sure they can figure out where I heard it from.

I have never attended one of 1114's team meetings but analyzing the results of their efforts leads me to believe that their design process a lot like the one used at best run, most progressive and highest performing company I have worked for (15-20% growth, every year without fail, leading to market dominance, with the same headcount). It is interesting to note that that company also shared their "secrets" with other manufacturers on a regular basis.

Originally Posted by eddie12390

The key to winning football games is scoring more points than the other team.

The key to winning football games is understanding how one can ensure that one scores more points than the other team.

[Karthik]

Originally Posted by waialua359

Even out here in Australia, I heard that 1114 started CADing during week 3, and in previous seasons, normally later.

This is not true. CAD is often finished by week 3.

[waialua359]

Originally Posted by Karthik

This is not true. CAD is often finished by week 3.

Interesting, and thanks for clarifying Karthik. Awesome!

[David8696]

Originally Posted by DampRobot

I remember seeing in one of Ed's spreadsheets that in 2008, 1114 was something like 5.67 standard deviation above the mean. That number is even crazier if you look at the p-value for it.

While there are always so, so dominant, I would have to agree. They are putting up points that seem to be about the limit of what one robot can do on its own, at least without a major change in the dynamics of the alliance. While they will continue to absolutely crush, other top tier teams will likely catch up to some degree.

This year (as of the Ed Law spreadsheet I looked at before making this post, which was post-Week 2; I haven't run the numbers yet for Wk. 3), they were slightly over 8 standard deviations above the mean.

[Nathan Streeter]

After a fair number of teams came somewhat close to 1114's 143pt QA from GTRC... making them look not-quite-so-outlier-defining, it's looking like they will have a QA of around 200pt at Waterloo!

Mind = blown

[Cory]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

After a fair number of teams came somewhat close to 1114's 143pt QA from GTRC... making them look not-quite-so-outlier-defining, it's looking like they will have a QA of around 200pt at Waterloo!

Mind = blown

Makes sense. that 143 was almost entirely 1114's contribution to the alliance. Now that there are stronger teams, their contribution is the same and their partners are adding to it.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

After a fair number of teams came somewhat close to 1114's 143pt QA from GTRC... making them look not-quite-so-outlier-defining, it's looking like they will have a QA of around 200pt at Waterloo!

Mind = blown

Their current QA at Waterloo is 215.60
The highest an alliance without 1114 on it has scored is 215 (Dallas F2)

[The_ShamWOW88]

We're all just small fish swimming in the Simbotics fishtank....