District Championship Projections

[Nathan Streeter]

Originally Posted by rwodonnell

I hope this is much closer to the real cutoff (we're at 69 points) and I really think it is. Not only are there 9 teams competing whose points won't count, as you said, but there is one team (236) who is already at 73 points, and another 4 teams who have won Chairman's awards. That's really 14 teams (11 in Hartford alone) whose points don't matter for those teams trying to reach the unknown threshold (assuming that threshold is under the 73 points team 236 already has.)

By the way, I thought there were going to be 60 invitations this year.

Certainly there are several factors that may bring that cutoff down below the 70pt mark...

I have no idea what the invitation count will be... I've tried looking around for it but have come up empty-handed. Battlecry has gone up above 54 teams in recent years, but I figured keeping my guess based on a 54-team list would be safe. If it bumps up to 60 teams, then that obviously brings the point threshold down by probably 1-3 points from whatever it would be.

[gafftron]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

Certainly there are several factors that may bring that cutoff down below the 70pt mark...

I have no idea what the invitation count will be... I've tried looking around for it but have come up empty-handed. Battlecry has gone up above 54 teams in recent years, but I figured keeping my guess based on a 54-team list would be safe. If it bumps up to 60 teams, then that obviously brings the point threshold down by probably 1-3 points from whatever it would be.

The invitation counts are actually posted in the Admin manual:

7.4.3 District Championship
Number of teams attending District Championship
FiM .................................................. .................................................. ......... 102
IN................................................ .................................................. ................ 32
MAR .................................................. .................................................. ......... 55
NE .................................................. .................................................. ............ 60
PNW............................................... .................................................. ............ 64

So it looks like WPI will be hosting 60 teams for the NE Championship.

[Nathan Streeter]

Originally Posted by gafftron

The invitation counts are actually posted in the Admin manual:

So it looks like WPI will be hosting 60 teams for the NE Championship.

Oops... I usually pride myself on familiarity with the manual too! :-/

In that case, I'm expecting the cutoff to be 65 points... +/- 1 pt. We'll see on Sunday, I guess!

[Mr V]

The "official" projection to qualify for the PNW DCMP is 58 points.

[PVCpirate]

Here's what I got using my method:

WEEK 4 PROJECTIONS
Michigan: ↓   53 points
Indiana:  ↓   42 points(complete)
PNW:     ↓    47 points
MAR:     ↑    70 points
New England: ↓ 56 points

Honestly I think these are pretty useless this week, Michigan, PNW and New England all look too low and MAR looks too high. Figured I would do them anyway for continuity or something.

[Link07]

Originally Posted by PVCpirate

Here's what I got using my method:

WEEK 4 PROJECTIONS
Michigan: ↓   53 points
Indiana:  ↓   42 points(complete)
PNW:     ↓    47 points
MAR:     ↑    70 points
New England: ↓ 56 points

Honestly I think these are pretty useless this week, Michigan, PNW and New England all look too low and MAR looks too high. Figured I would do them anyway for continuity or something.

I haven't run any numbers or projections myself, but I think I can say with confidence that 70 is too high for MAR.

[Orthofort]

I did a projection just for Michigan by giving each team that haven't played 2 events the same score they got in the first event and I got 64-66, depending on how good the teams are that haven't played any events yet. Because of this, I estimate for Michigan it will be 64, maybe 65. FYI I did this using the numbers on the official FIRST ranking page, because I noticed TBA wasn't calculating qualification points correctly.

What method are you using to get 53 for Michigan? I cannot see the point values being that low.

Also I could do the same for the other districts if there is interest.

[Richard Wallace]

Originally Posted by Orthofort

I did a projection just for Michigan by giving each team that haven't played 2 events the same score they got in the first event and I got 64-66, depending on how good the teams are that haven't played any events yet. Because of this, I estimate for Michigan it will be 64, maybe 65.

Your estimate seems good to me because it matches this. Also, FiM leadership has already communicated to Michigan teams that they anticipate the cutoff will be around 63 points.

[PVCpirate]

Originally Posted by Orthofort

I did a projection just for Michigan by giving each team that haven't played 2 events the same score they got in the first event and I got 64-66, depending on how good the teams are that haven't played any events yet. Because of this, I estimate for Michigan it will be 64, maybe 65. FYI I did this using the numbers on the official FIRST ranking page, because I noticed TBA wasn't calculating qualification points correctly.

What method are you using to get 53 for Michigan? I cannot see the point values being that low.

Also I could do the same for the other districts if there is interest.

If you go to the first page I explained how I was doing it, I'm basically just taking the percent of teams that have competed, multiplying that by the DCMP capacity, and then using the team at that ranking spot to determine the projected cutoff. It seems to work best when most of the teams have competed once, but very few have gone twice.

[swootton]

I'd love to see your prediction for NE. WE have 66 point and know we are on the bubble. I'm expecting 65 to be the cutoff.

[SoftwareBug2.0]

Originally Posted by PVCpirate

Here's what I got using my method:

WEEK 4 PROJECTIONS
Michigan: ↓   53 points
Indiana:  ↓   42 points(complete)
PNW:     ↓    47 points
MAR:     ↑    70 points
New England: ↓ 56 points

Honestly I think these are pretty useless this week, Michigan, PNW and New England all look too low and MAR looks too high. Figured I would do them anyway for continuity or something.

Yeah, I hate to pile on but the number for the PNW cutoff is not a good guess. The PNW district championship is a 64 team event and the 64th most points right now is already at 47.

[Andy A.]

For anyone who hadn't noticed yet, NEDC qualified teams are now indicated on the leaderboard at http://frc-districtrankings.usfirst.org/NE . The point cut off was 66.

Incidentally, three cheers to FIRST for the leaderboard site! It's a fantastic tool; fast to update, easy to navigate, easy to understand. After years of struggling with the typical FIRST web based tools this was a breath of fresh air.

[MikeE]

Originally Posted by Andy A.

For anyone who hadn't noticed yet, NEDC qualified teams are now indicated on the leaderboard at http://frc-districtrankings.usfirst.org/NE . The point cut off was 66.

Incidentally, three cheers to FIRST for the leaderboard site! It's a fantastic tool; fast to update, easy to navigate, easy to understand. After years of struggling with the typical FIRST web based tools this was a breath of fresh air.

Last year there were several teams who declined to attend for various reasons, so I wouldn't be surprised if a few teams just below the threshold will see an invitation later this week.

[Christopher149]

The rankings leaderboard just updated for FIM, and the cutoff is 66 points (assuming no declines).