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Unread 24-03-2015, 15:58
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Re: District Championship Projections
I did a projection just for Michigan by giving each team that haven't played 2 events the same score they got in the first event and I got 64-66, depending on how good the teams are that haven't played any events yet. Because of this, I estimate for Michigan it will be 64, maybe 65. FYI I did this using the numbers on the official FIRST ranking page, because I noticed TBA wasn't calculating qualification points correctly.

What method are you using to get 53 for Michigan? I cannot see the point values being that low.

Also I could do the same for the other districts if there is interest.
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Unread 24-03-2015, 16:26
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Re: District Championship Projections
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Originally Posted by Orthofort View Post
I did a projection just for Michigan by giving each team that haven't played 2 events the same score they got in the first event and I got 64-66, depending on how good the teams are that haven't played any events yet. Because of this, I estimate for Michigan it will be 64, maybe 65.
Your estimate seems good to me because it matches this. Also, FiM leadership has already communicated to Michigan teams that they anticipate the cutoff will be around 63 points.
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Unread 24-03-2015, 23:38
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Re: District Championship Projections
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orthofort View Post
I did a projection just for Michigan by giving each team that haven't played 2 events the same score they got in the first event and I got 64-66, depending on how good the teams are that haven't played any events yet. Because of this, I estimate for Michigan it will be 64, maybe 65. FYI I did this using the numbers on the official FIRST ranking page, because I noticed TBA wasn't calculating qualification points correctly.

What method are you using to get 53 for Michigan? I cannot see the point values being that low.

Also I could do the same for the other districts if there is interest.
If you go to the first page I explained how I was doing it, I'm basically just taking the percent of teams that have competed, multiplying that by the DCMP capacity, and then using the team at that ranking spot to determine the projected cutoff. It seems to work best when most of the teams have competed once, but very few have gone twice.
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Unread 25-03-2015, 07:41
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Re: District Championship Projections
I'd love to see your prediction for NE. WE have 66 point and know we are on the bubble. I'm expecting 65 to be the cutoff.
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