Predictions Week Five: Center Cans on Center Stage

[Looking Forward]

Just as every year, as the weeks tick by, the scores continue to climb and climb. Where a team that could complete a single capped five or six stack was often an event favorite back in weeks one and two, now the best at many events can complete two or three 36+ point stacks. As a result, acquiring additional bins from the step is becoming a premium skill, even if it isn’t particularly fast. The autonomous and early match races for the cans are infrequent so far, but being able to acquire more cans to score at some point during a match is a critical for alliances with aims of advancing far in the playoffs. There are very few alliances with legitimate demand for 7 bins, but many will need 4 or 5. Scoring tons of totes doesn’t do much good if you don’t have recycling containers to place on top of them.

This trend will do nothing but grow through the remainder of the season. Teams are going to have to grab more bins and grab them faster as the stakes keep rising. It’s long been predicted that Einstein will be decided by “canburglars,” however this very prediction may well also limit the ultimate speed of the can grabbing tools we see in the next couple weeks. The teams with eyes on the ultimate prize may well keep their final iterations of these mechanisms under wraps until they’re in the dome. Even still, improvements will be necessary to win events in the final few weeks. Currently some teams’ entire role is to win the cans from step, and that’s fine if the other two alliance partners can stack and cap independently. However, if a synergistic approach is necessary to raise the score, it’s the teams that can acquire the cans with their capping mechanism (or quickly transfer them to that mechanism) that become incredibly important.

Hawaii Regional
No event brings quite the international flavor of the one a midst the Pacific Ocean. Seven nations will have teams flying their flags in Honolulu this weekend, and it's entirely within the realm of reason that an alliance owing loyalties to three different countries could hoist the winners trophies for only the third time in FRC history. 359 (USA) and 4253 (Taiwan) were part of the last alliance to do so, at the Australia regional a few weeks ago. While the Hawaiian Kids are pretty much fixtures in the event finals, TAS Robotics has had decent performances at Hawaii in years past, if they can take the next step this might be their best chance to make a splash. 3132 was selected first and fell to that alliance in the Australia finals, but it would be hard to top the amount of hardware they took home from the event. Thunder Down Under were Regional Finalists, won Engineering Inspiration, entrepreneurship, safety, and all three of the individual awards (WFFA and two Dean's List Finalists). They hope to upgrade some of their red ribbons to blue this weekend, since that's about the only thing they haven't accomplished already this season. 4774 and 3008 also had solid outings in the southern hemisphere, ranking 8th and 9th respectively. Not all the big guns attended Australia, however. 610's can grabbing and quick small stacking earned them the first selection and a win at GTRC. They may play better as a compliment to a high scorer than an alliances' main weapon, but now that they've discovered the power of ramps, they may be able to more efficiently work from the human player station and could potentially put on a performance similar to what the Holy Cows did last weekend. The best bet among the locals that will be unbagging for the first time to replicate the stacking prowess of the Coyotes' previous partners is 368. If all goes to plan, this could be the second straight season that Kika Mana escapes Hawaii without a single loss. On the other hand, that could be true if they fall significantly short of their aspirations as well.

Las Vegas Regional
After some precarious moments through the off-season, the Las Vegas Regional is back in 2015 for its 11th season. While there are teams from both coasts, Germany, and China among the field of 43, it's two teams with unfinished business that are in the spotlight. 148 and 987 had an unsavory finish to their on the field action in Dallas back in week 1, and are back in action. The two teams would simply have to maintain their levels of play to be favorites, but both will look to raise the bar further, even with championship berths already secured. 60 may have the best odds of disrupting the high rolling dynamic duo atop the leader boards, as they too have proven capable of scoring multiple capped stacks on their own. 1251 may be a valuable weapon for an alliance looking to knock off the top guns. Not only are the Tech Tigers much smoother at capping tall stacks than other can specialists at the event, such as 3245, but they can snatch cans from the step in autonomous. This could lead to some autonomous interplay with them, the High Rollers' canburglers, and possibly even the Robowranglers' 28-point autonomous aspirations (with Alfred left home in the bat cave). Despite some early exits, 341 and 3309 hope to be playoff factors as well. Daisy made leaps and bounds at their second district, but their consistency and can acquisition still leave a lot to be desired. The Friarbots have a scoring machine capable of creating multiple stacks from the landfill. While the odds are weighted heavily towards the favorites, there will be no shortage of action in Vegas this weekend.

Peachtree Regional
It's hard to think of an event in Atlanta involving as many championship invites since the big show left the Georgia Dome. Five teams are packing potential wild card spots, opening the door for more Georgia teams than ever to be represented at Championship. Human player-fed machines will be in no short supply. 2974 won Orlando by making 3 fully capped 4 tote stacks by themselves. 1261, 1746, and 1319 all have great human player-fed machines that have previously built stacks of 5, fully capped. 343 and 4026 were both close to pulling of three tote autonomous modes back in week one, and have had four weeks to nail down their routines. No one in the state was able to match 1648's efficiency at stacking the landfill in the opening weekend, however they will have a hard battle to maintain their "best landfiller in GA" title against the likes of 4468. There are sleepers in the field as well. 4509 and the return of 1771 may turn a few heads their way, and watch out for the changes to 2415 has made since they took home gold as the final pick in alliance selection at Alamo.

Buckeye Regional
Creative combinations led to Pittsburgh finals- 48, 379, 1708
Trying to get over the hump- 694, 1592
Stellar capping rookies- 5413

Colorado Regional
Short stacks and cans from the landfill- 1339
Utah alliance captains- 662, 2996, 3200
Poorly timed errors costs them at GKC- 1730
Favorites after their first ever regional win in Utah- 1619
Capped their way to a Kansas City repeat- 1723

Finger Lakes Regional
Poised for a deep run- 20, 340
Need consistency for the playoff push- 1507, 2228, 3015
Looking for redemption from first regional blues- 378, 1126, 1511, 3003, 4039

Greater DC Regional
Favorites among the 33 teams yet to play Recycle Rush- 1418
Visiting contenders at an event with a history of outside champs- 383, 3419
Reigning champs looking to improve on a semi-final exist in RVA- 1731

Hub City Regional
Reworking to reach high expectations- 2848, 3310
Gunning for a 3rd straight banner weekend in Lubbock- 2468
Texas twosome- 1817

North Bay Regional
4-stacked to the GTRC finals- 188, 4001
Landfill miner with 20-point auto- 1310
Can specialist- 1305
Capable of 100 point solo outings- 4678

Oklahoma Regional
Looking to punch their championship ticket in Oklahoma again- 4522
Favorites- 1296, 1806
Trying to work out their gremlins- 1775
Sooner hopes- 932, 1209, 2395, 3507

SBPLI Long Island Regional
Could be the vital piece on the right alliance- 329
Top seed in Virginia- 1156
Already have 2015 banners- 263, 1796

Ventura Regional
Mechanical marvels trying to work out the kinks- 696, 1323
Capable of scoring 100+ points solo- 330
Trying to make the rest of their game as smooth as their autonomous- 1717
Adding autonomous action to an already high scoring machine- 1836
Bright colors looking for bright alliance partners- 399, 4201

(FIM) Center Line Event
Stacks on stacks- 2834
Need strong events to reach MSC- 123, 201, 3098
Things have changed since they won in week 1- 4384
Contenders- 573, 1189

(FIM) Escanaba Event
Favorites- 2054, 3602
Rookie teams- 27.5%
Hoping to impress- 857, 1322, 1596, 4391

(FIM) Livonia Event
Denied in the finals- 27, 217, 548
Building towards their ultimate goals- 67
Rising force in Michigan- 4362

(MAR) Bridgewater-Raritan Event
Five finals losses in the past 4 years- 1403
Making their MAR debuts, despite competing twice already- 3314
Strong stacking and canburgling performance in Waterloo- 1676
Contenders looking to step up- 193, 222, 293, 2016

(MAR) Upper Darby Event
Most established solo scorers- 225, 2607
Shorter stackers- 103, 316, 1143, 3974
Have potential, but need a major finish to reach Lehigh- 3929, 4954
Established canburglar- 365

(NE) Hartford Event
Coming in Hot- 195, 230, 236
Stealing Cans & Capping Stacks- 95, 558
Looking to Break Through- 173, 228, 1124, 2067, 2836
Needs a miracle to reach WPI- 177

(NE) Northeastern University Event
Sitting Atop the Pile- 125, 1519
Looking to Unzip- 4048
Gaining Traction- 126, 166, 1768
The Young Guns- 5735

(PNW) Auburn Event
Favorites- 948, 1425
Slow and Steady Wins the Race- 360, 4469
Playoff Components- 2522, 3574, 4980

(PNW) Philomath Event
Crossing Coasts to Steal Cans- 190
Top-tier Scorers- 955, 1983
Playing for Pride- 2811
2nd Chair at Oregon City- 2550

[EricH]

Another one for Hawaii: 2443 wants to upgrade their red ribbons (from Los Angeles) to blue. They're a landfill bot, and a good one.

[ThunderousPrime]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

North Bay Regional
Landfill miner with 20-point auto- 1301

1301 appears to be a typo. Thank you for the shout out, we'll be back looking to improve on what we did in Montreal.

[Nathan Streeter]

Thank you for your wisdom, Looking Forward!

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

(NE) Northeastern University Event
Sitting Atop the Pile- 125, 1519
Looking to Unzip- 4048
Gaining Traction- 126, 166, 1768
The Young Guns- 5735

Thank you for the mention! Among others gaining traction are 2877 and 4908, who both competed at UMass Dartmouth week 3. Both are HP stackers who were really clicking by the time Saturday afternoon rolled around.

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

Finger Lakes Regional
Poised for a deep run- 20, 340
Need consistency for the playoff push- 1507, 2228, 3015
Looking for redemption from first regional blues- 378, 1126, 1511, 3003, 4039

Really if anyone from our Tech Valley alliance is poised for a deep run in eliminations, it has to be 5254. In eliminations at Tech Valley, 5254 was putting up two stacks/match and grabbing containers from the center.
I really hope they make it to the championship event somehow this weekend. They definitely deserve to be there.

[ccresta1386]

Thanks! Definitly looking forward to a turnaround from Hatboro, we made a few modifications and are looking forward to this week! #TeamTether

[Zebra_Fact_Man]

I'd like to point out that the Livonia District event will have 3 HOF teams competing at it (27, 51, 67). Has any other district or regional had that much concentrated awesomeness in attendance yet this year?

[George A.]

Originally Posted by Zebra_Fact_Man

I'd like to point out that the Livonia District event will have 3 HOF teams competing at it (27, 51, 67). Has any other district or regional had that much concentrated awesomeness in attendance yet this year?

I know that Upper Darby has 2 (103, and 365) I am not sure if 341 is also in attendance.

[Jay O'Donnell]

Originally Posted by George A.

I know that Upper Darby has 2 (103, and 365) I am not sure if 341 is also in attendance.

341 is in Vegas this weekend.

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

(NE) Northeastern University Event
Sitting Atop the Pile- 125, 1519
Looking to Unzip- 4048
Gaining Traction- 126, 166, 1768
The Young Guns- 5735

Atop a pile of cheesecake maybe. I can't wait to see what sort of food group based shenanigans our kids get up to with our flag this week. (UMD was vegetables, RIDE was fruits, I want to see them do something with the Candy Corn food group)

[John Retkowski]

We're honored to be on the list for Upper Darby. Unfortunately we didn't perform as well as we would have liked at Seneca, but we are working on a can holding device for the robot and will be new and improved in week 4

[MrJ-3974]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

(MAR) Upper Darby Event
Most established solo scorers- 225, 2607
Shorter stackers- 103, 316, 1143, 3974
Have potential, but need a major finish to reach Lehigh- 3929, 4954
Established canburglar- 365

Thanks for the mention.

Upper Darby doesn't have the starpower of some other MAR events, like Hatboro-Horsham in week 1, but the top-tier teams have the potential to make this a very unique competition.

225, 2607, and 1143 have banners already but TechFire's to-date OPR of 64.9 blows the other teams' out of the water. However, there are a number of teams attending that, I believe, have yet to hit their stride. 365 is a can-thief no doubt, but I expect MoE's stacking/capping ability to be on display even more than it was during their quarterfinal exit at Chestnut Hill. I expect the Fighting RoboVikings of 2607 to also improve on their qualifying scores and challenge TechFire for the #1 rank.

Speaking of Chestnut Hill, two finalists (3974 and 1712) will be on hand as well as Pioneer Valley finalist 316. Likewise, 1143 captained the #6 alliance to victory at Mount Olive.

Just below the top teams, there are some very unique machines looking to be the 2nd or 3rd teams that will help an alliance wrap up a victory. 1712 showed stout stacking-and-capping ability at Chestnut Hill, as did 433, who ranked #3. Beyond that, 103 and 272 are perennial contenders with OPRs in the low-20s and will likely improve those numbers.

The X-factor here might be home team and mechanum experts 357, who were bounced in the Hatboro-Horsham quarterfinals and have an OPR of 7.5, which leaves plenty of room for improvement.

[IronicDeadBird]

Always accurate with the information you gather per usual... Thanks for the shout out!

[microbuns]

Looking Forward - I'm always looking forward to your weekly post! Always gets me excited for the next week. Thanks for all the work you put in.

[rees2001]

Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard

Really if anyone from our Tech Valley alliance is poised for a deep run in eliminations, it has to be 5254. In eliminations at Tech Valley, 5254 was putting up two stacks/match and grabbing containers from the center.
I really hope they make it to the championship event somehow this weekend. They definitely deserve to be there.

Agreed. 5254 started NYTVR slow but by Friday evening/Saturday morning they had found their groove and were a force. With the assistance of your (20's) ramp they were great. They can landfill or HP which makes them a double threat.

I wouldn't count out:
20, a solid stack & cap.
2228, they really looked like they had things working well towards the end of GRTE
1507, finds a way to get it done, I just don't want to face them in the Finals (look up some data on the 1507 vs 340 in the finals at FLR).
3015, has figured out how to get the most out of their design.
3003, will bring their polished auto and solid design
I haven't seen enough to speak of the others, but I would watch out for 191, they always find a way. And 174 hasn't had a streak of FLR wins in while, they may be due.