1114 the Statistical Outlier

[lcoreyl]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

After a fair number of teams came somewhat close to 1114's 143pt QA from GTRC... making them look not-quite-so-outlier-defining, it's looking like they will have a QA of around 200pt at Waterloo!

Mind = blown

If they indeed get a 200pt average that would be crazy. Let's not forget that their current average is paired with 2056 twice and 5406 once making this more of an eliminations looking average...

[one4robots]

Originally Posted by Gdeaver

We have not yet seen the platform RC wars.

Note sure if it was Quarterfinals Match 2, Semi-finals Match 2 or Finals Match 1 of Wisconsin Regional, but 2530 stole a can right off 3418s plunger above the step. One of the most epic moves in 2530 history.

The RC wars HAVE begun!

[JamesCH95]

Originally Posted by one4robots

Note sure if it was Quarterfinals Match 2, Semi-finals Match 2 or Finals Match 1 of Wisconsin Regional, but 2530 stole a can right off 3418s plunger above the step. One of the most epic moves in 2530 history.

The RC wars HAVE begun!

138 pulled a can out of our gripper in GSDE in week 1!

We've been working to counter that move since...

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by one4robots

Note sure if it was Quarterfinals Match 2, Semi-finals Match 2 or Finals Match 1 of Wisconsin Regional, but 2530 stole a can right off 3418s plunger above the step. One of the most epic moves in 2530 history.

The RC wars HAVE begun!

I'll admit, I haven't seen any video from Wisconsin, but whatever you did there, I have trouble imagining that it's any more epic, or more inconceivable, than this.

[Citrus Dad]

After 4 weeks, based on the "net OPR" (minus Coop OPR), 1114 is now 8.79 standard deviations (SD) above the mean OPR. The previous high was 6.53 for 1114 in 2008. Only one other team has been above 6 at season's end.

But that skew doesn't stop with just one team here's the number of teams more than 5 and 4 SDs above the mean by year. Cumulatively, only 8 teams have ever been above 5 SD before; now we have 6 teams. And in the years with 6 teams above 4 SD, there were either 1 or 0 above 5.

SD 5 4
2015 6 10
2014 0 3
2013 2 3
2012 1 6
2011 0 6
2010 4 3
2009 0 1
2008 1 3

[artK]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

After 4 weeks, based on the "net OPR" (minus Coop OPR), 1114 is now 8.79 standard deviations (SD) above the mean OPR. The previous high was 6.53 for 1114 in 2008. Only one other team has been above 6 at season's end.

But that skew doesn't stop with just one team here's the number of teams more than 5 and 4 SDs above the mean by year. Cumulatively, only 8 teams have ever been above 5 SD before; now we have 6 teams. And in the years with 6 teams above 4 SD, there were either 1 or 0 above 5.

I suspect that those number of teams above 4 and 5 SDs for 2015 will go down come champs when more high scoring teams start playing more matches together.

Did you use Ed Law's spreadsheets for all of these numbers?

[Dragonking]

This is also due to the fact that frc is growing faster than ever and there is a wider possible point spread than many years.

[Nathan Streeter]

Originally Posted by artK

I suspect that those number of teams above 4 and 5 SDs for 2015 will go down come champs when more high scoring teams start playing more matches together.

Did you use Ed Law's spreadsheets for all of these numbers?

Good teams playing together should have a very small impact on OPR... it seems about as likely to slightly decrease or stagnate after Week 6 or 7 as it is to increase. Teams can't easily double scoring contribution during auto (if you have two 3-tote-autos in the same qual match) and have to work harder to double teleop scoring... (i.e., have to work to get more cans off the step, easy to eat through the landfill, etc.). Then there's obviously the issue of field congestion.

Regardless, having high scoring teams together shouldn't impact OPR... OPR should 'filter' all that out. Obviously QAs will continue to rise to be higher and higher.

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by artK

I suspect that those number of teams above 4 and 5 SDs for 2015 will go down come champs when more high scoring teams start playing more matches together.

Did you use Ed Law's spreadsheets for all of these numbers?

Yes, used Ed's spreadsheet.

I did these calculations at 2 weeks, but didn't post them, then went back to 4 weeks since all of the strongest teams have played by now. While there might be some compression at Champs, the gap is enormous right now and unlike any previous year.

As to the expansion of FRC, note that the SDs have not been steadily expanding with growth (which makes sense when looking at unitless distribution measures). In fact the years with the next greatest skews are in 2010 and 2008. This whole year looks like its an outlier, not just one team.

[Ichlieberoboter]

Their average at Waterloo for quals was 183.3. They then formed an alliance with the second team who had an average of 174.4. Scores off the charts. Mind officially blown.

[nuclearnerd]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

But that skew doesn't stop with just one team here's the number of teams more than 5 and 4 SDs above the mean by year. Cumulatively, only 8 teams have ever been above 5 SD before; now we have 6 teams. And in the years with 6 teams above 4 SD, there were either 1 or 0 above 5.

As a visual person, I would love to see overlapping histograms of the OPRs for all of the years that Ed has spreadsheets for. It would be useful to have a sort of "gini index" for different years. The chart should show if there is a trend towards more skewed performances, or if it's a game specific thing. I'd worry that a long-term trend of this kind would start to turn "inspiring" into "discouraging". I'll try to make the chart when I get some time, unless someone beats me to it.

Disclaimer: I am in slobbering love with Simbot Sideswipe, and I'm not calling foul over their accomplishment. I'm just interested in the meta trends of FRC, and their impact on the sustainability of the sport.

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by nuclearnerd

As a visual person, I would love to see overlapping histograms of the OPRs for all of the years that Ed has spreadsheets for. It would be useful to have a sort of "gini index" for different years. The chart should show if there is a trend towards more skewed performances, or if it's a game specific thing. I'd worry that a long-term trend of this kind would start to turn "inspiring" into "discouraging". I'll try to make the chart when I get some time, unless someone beats me to it.

Disclaimer: I am in slobbering love with Simbot Sideswipe, and I'm not calling foul over their accomplishment. I'm just interested in the meta trends of FRC, and their impact on the sustainability of the sport.

I have a couple of charts done already but I haven't had time to load them up here--it's trickier than on other websites.

The skew appears to be game specific and not a trend. The games that seem to get the highest praise on CD have the lowest skew.

[nuclearnerd]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

I have a couple of charts done already but I haven't had time to load them up here--it's trickier than on other websites.

Try uploading them to a 3rd party site (Flickr, Dropbox, Google drive, imgur) and posting a link. Otherwise, to upload to Chief you have to go here:http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/photos/upload/

[Karthik]

Originally Posted by philso

Yes, it would be hugely educational and inspirational for the community (and greatly appreciated) if someone from 1114 could describe the various design options they considered, the decisions they made and the reasoning behind their decisions. Some of us have already been speculating on various topics in one of the other threads and would love to know what the real deal is.

As you requested.

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...89#post1463289

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by nuclearnerd

Try uploading them to a 3rd party site (Flickr, Dropbox, Google drive, imgur) and posting a link. Otherwise, to upload to Chief you have to go here:http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/photos/upload/

Thanks, did it and waiting for approval.