pic: Top 10% OPRs compared via standard deviation distribution - 2008-2015

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

Pretty sure last year's OPR included penalties, as with all previous years. The OPR calculation is simply a regression analysis on the total final score for each match with a dummy variable for each team.

So I go back to my original comment that the low end spread is quite interesting. I think it might be reflective of how difficult it is for a newer or less experienced team to contribute to the game, but I didn't think they could detract so much.

BTW, there are special statistical properties to include when running regressions with a continuous dependent variable (score) and 0-1 dummy variables (i.e., whether a team is present on the alliance). I haven't looked at that issue for quite a while so I don't remember much beyond that but it is a consideration in the OPR estimation.

I should have been more clear. What I meant to convey was that penalties last year had no direct impact on the offending team's score. Thus, OPR would have no way to tell that a team was hurting their alliance because of penalties. Since penalties this year are subtractive, they are reflected in the OPR calculations.

What I am curious about is an alternate OPR calculation for last year which would use the following formula in the match score matrix instead of the nominal score:
adjusted score = (nominal score) - (penalty points incurred by opposing alliance) + (penalty points incurred by this alliance)

Actually, I do remember uOPR (unpenalized OPR) being calculated last year. Was this the method of obtaining that? Or did it just subtract out all penalty points incurred without adding any back in?

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

What I am curious about is an alternate OPR calculation for last year which would use the following formula in the match score matrix instead of the nominal score:
adjusted score = (nominal score) - (penalty points incurred by opposing alliance) + (penalty points incurred by this alliance)

Actually, I do remember uOPR (unpenalized OPR) being calculated last year. Was this the method of obtaining that? Or did it just subtract out all penalty points incurred without adding any back in?

Is this at all helpful?
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/download/4037

Column headings are as follows:

L2s	Final Score OPR
L2f	Foul OPR
L2h	Hybrid OPR
L2t	TeleOp OPR
L2os	Opponent's Final Score OPR
L2of	Opponent's Foul OPR
L2oh	Opponent's Hybrid OPR
L2ot	Opponent's TeleOp OPR
As	Average Final Score
Af	Average Foul
Ah	Average Hybrid
At	Average TeleOp
Aos	Opponents Average Final Score
Aof	Opponents Average Foul
Aoh	Opponents Average Hybrid
Aot	Opponents Average TeleOp
uOPR	unpenalized OPR = L2s - L2f
uDPR	unpenalized DPR = L2os - L2of
uCCWM	unpenalized CCWM = uOPR - uDPR
EPA	uOPR - (As - Af)
M	Matches Played

N.B. : The usual Twitter data caveats apply

[Conor Ryan]

There are more teams this year than ever before. The 1% is getting bigger and more elite ever year.

More than anything I think this statistic is showing the complete absence of defense from this years game.

[smurfgirl]

Thanks for sharing this - it's really interesting!

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Ether

Is this at all helpful?

Thank you, that is indeed very helpful. I will play around more with this after my team competes this weekend.

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by Conor Ryan

There are more teams this year than ever before. The 1% is getting bigger and more elite ever year.

Actually 2014 was one of the most flat years in distribution so there's not an obvious trend. The SD calculation normalizes for the size of the pool of teams--it should be the same regardless of whether there are 100 or 10,000 teams. The difference in the distribution is really driven by the nature of the game.

Originally Posted by Conor Ryan

More than anything I think this statistic is showing the complete absence of defense from this years game.

See my points above: It's not only lack of defense but the particular difficulty of gaining the highest point activities. There's been posts on that issue in other threads.