2015 Champs Predictions

[howdosheeplamp]

Originally Posted by MrJohnston

I need to do some more scouting before having an actual prediction, but I do think that many of these "guesses" are missing a major point: Canburgling.

Look at most of the Curie predictions: 148 and 1114 top everybody's list. There is no doubt in my mind that they are the two strongest robots in that division. However, neither has much canburgling ability (at least as of yet). If they work together as the #1 alliance in Curie, their third pick is not likely to have a great canburgler. In other words they could be facing the prospects of frequently only having access to 3 recycling containers. So... 3 x 42pt stacks + 20 auto + 30 more tote points (?) = 176 pts. That won't get them out of the quarterfinals.

So, let's say 1114 is #1 out of qualifications. Do they dare pick 148?..

Really? From what I have seen, it is pretty reasonable to think that 1114 and 148 can use every single tote on their side of the field, especially since they are not capping all their stacks. 1114 uses all landfill totes for 3 stacks of 6 and then another from their ramp from HP load. 148 uses the remaining 24 totes in the HP to make 4 stacks of their own.
-They definitely have 3 containers, and will make 42(3) = 126 pts
-Since both have a 3 tote auto it is likely that they will get the 20 pts bonus
-After their first 3, they make 5 other stacks of totes 6 high = 30(2) = 60 pts
-They have 7 noodles left over, which I will assume they will just save

results in 206 points if they are completely robbed of cans.
each recycling container that they get will convert 6 totes (12) to a capped 6-stack (42), so a 30 point bonus.

TL;DR
for 1114 and 148, they score:
with no step cans: ~206 (7 litter in reserve)
with 1: ~236 (6 litter in reserve)
with 2: ~266 (5 litter in reserve)
with 3: ~296 (4 litter in reserve)
with 4: ~326 (3 litter in reserve)

They have incentive to pick each other. To beat them, you need to steal all 4 step cans and at least put up points equivalent to 5 stacks of 6 worth of points. (210)

Any predictions at this point for canburglars are pointless because so many teams will have better and faster ones. We'll just have to wait and see.