2015 Champs Predictions

[howdosheeplamp]

Originally Posted by MrJohnston

I need to do some more scouting before having an actual prediction, but I do think that many of these "guesses" are missing a major point: Canburgling.

Look at most of the Curie predictions: 148 and 1114 top everybody's list. There is no doubt in my mind that they are the two strongest robots in that division. However, neither has much canburgling ability (at least as of yet). If they work together as the #1 alliance in Curie, their third pick is not likely to have a great canburgler. In other words they could be facing the prospects of frequently only having access to 3 recycling containers. So... 3 x 42pt stacks + 20 auto + 30 more tote points (?) = 176 pts. That won't get them out of the quarterfinals.

So, let's say 1114 is #1 out of qualifications. Do they dare pick 148?..

Really? From what I have seen, it is pretty reasonable to think that 1114 and 148 can use every single tote on their side of the field, especially since they are not capping all their stacks. 1114 uses all landfill totes for 3 stacks of 6 and then another from their ramp from HP load. 148 uses the remaining 24 totes in the HP to make 4 stacks of their own.
-They definitely have 3 containers, and will make 42(3) = 126 pts
-Since both have a 3 tote auto it is likely that they will get the 20 pts bonus
-After their first 3, they make 5 other stacks of totes 6 high = 30(2) = 60 pts
-They have 7 noodles left over, which I will assume they will just save

results in 206 points if they are completely robbed of cans.
each recycling container that they get will convert 6 totes (12) to a capped 6-stack (42), so a 30 point bonus.

TL;DR
for 1114 and 148, they score:
with no step cans: ~206 (7 litter in reserve)
with 1: ~236 (6 litter in reserve)
with 2: ~266 (5 litter in reserve)
with 3: ~296 (4 litter in reserve)
with 4: ~326 (3 litter in reserve)

They have incentive to pick each other. To beat them, you need to steal all 4 step cans and at least put up points equivalent to 5 stacks of 6 worth of points. (210)

Any predictions at this point for canburglars are pointless because so many teams will have better and faster ones. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by howdosheeplamp

Really? From what I have seen, it is pretty reasonable to think that 1114 and 148 can use every single tote on their side of the field, especially since they are not capping all their stacks. 1114 uses all landfill totes for 3 stacks of 6 and then another from their ramp from HP load. 148 uses the remaining 24 totes in the HP to make 4 stacks of their own.
-They definitely have 3 containers, and will make 42(3) = 126 pts
-Since both have a 3 tote auto it is likely that they will get the 20 pts bonus
-After their first 3, they make 5 other stacks of totes 6 high = 30(2) = 60 pts
-They have 7 noodles left over, which I will assume they will just save

results in 206 points if they are completely robbed of cans.
each recycling container that they get will convert 6 totes (12) to a capped 6-stack (42), so a 30 point bonus.

TL;DR
for 1114 and 148, they score:
with no step cans: ~206 (7 litter in reserve)
with 1: ~236 (6 litter in reserve)
with 2: ~266 (5 litter in reserve)
with 3: ~296 (4 litter in reserve)
with 4: ~326 (3 litter in reserve)

They have incentive to pick each other. To beat them, you need to steal all 4 step cans and at least put up points equivalent to 5 stacks of 6 worth of points. (210)

Any predictions at this point for canburglars are pointless because so many teams will have better and faster ones. We'll just have to wait and see.

And I guarantee 1114 has a fast canburglar by now.
So there's that.

[Brandon Holley]

Originally Posted by M1KRONAUT

I don't exactly know how the championships work, but I wouldn't be surprised if 1114 and 254 end up together and dominate.

I would be completely surprised- as these two particular teams are in different divisions with literal impossibility of being on the same alliance.

Teams are divided into 8 divisions- each division plays itself out just like a 'regional'. The 8 winning alliances play their own elimination tournament on Einstein to crown the World Champion.

If you are not in the same division, you have no way of playing on the same alliance. There is much more detail in the manual on this.

-Brando

[M1KRONAUT]

Thanks, Brandon. I thought that each name was for an alliance (like the top 8 at regionals).

Is there a list of teams in each division?

[Gweiss96]

Originally Posted by M1KRONAUT

Thanks, Brandon. I thought that each name was for an alliance (like the top 8 at regionals).

Is there a list of teams in each division?

http://championship-notifier.evanforbes.net:3000/
Click on a division to see which teams are in it.

[Greg Needel]

Originally Posted by Abhishek R

Plus the fact that you have to be able to convert those cans to stacks, and it's entirely possible some of the fastest canburglars are not very good stackers.

THIS. Just winning the can race is not enough to win, you have to use the cans. Because the elims all the way through the divisions and Einstein are average based and round robin, you are still going to have to put up big points as an alliance to advance. If you win all 4 cans but only put up 3 -6 stacks you are not going to advance. In the Einstein quarter finals you only see 2 of 8 teams, so a fast can grabber alliance who can't stack could easily get knocked off by the other side of the bracket where the cans split 2-2 and both teams throw up 5 stacks of 6.

I actually think that in the quarter finals and semi finals of both sub-divisions and Einstein you might see some alliances agreeing to let the cans go 2-2 to better their chances at making it to the final dance.

Which asks the question, how many alliances do you all think will have the capacity to put up more than 5 - 6 stacks? I think very few, especially at the sub division level, and even in the quarterfinals on Einstein it will be an issue for most.

[CaityDawh]

Originally Posted by Pretzel

I wonder if anyone's been developing some crazy autonomous that is both a canburglar and a 3-tote auto. Some of the teams like 1114 and 254 certainly stack fast enough to make it a possibility, even if it would be quite the programming challenge (or it could be impossibl, I don't know).

254 is tethered to their ramp, so they can't grab containers form the step during Auto. That means that they will either pick a team that can grab containers or cheesecake a team to do so.

[Jay O'Donnell]

Originally Posted by CaityDawh

254 is tethered to their ramp, so they can't grab containers form the step during Auto. That means that they will either pick a team that can grab containers or cheesecake a team to do so.

Or tether an alliance partner to their ramp.

[FIMAlumni]

Originally Posted by Greg Needel

I actually think that in the quarter finals and semi finals of both sub-divisions and Einstein you might see some alliances agreeing to let the cans go 2-2 to better their chances at making it to the final dance.

Can you explain to me why you would split the RCs 2-2? If I have the faster can grabbers, I'm going to grab all 4 to lower your alliance score even if I can only score two of them. This elimination structure is brutal and 1 bad match by 2 teams in the QFs (from my alliance stealing the RCs) is two less teams I have to beat to move on. By splitting the RCs, you may move on to the SF while I'm stuck trying to find a good seat for the next round.

[Abhishek R]

Originally Posted by CaityDawh

254 is tethered to their ramp, so they can't grab containers form the step during Auto. That means that they will either pick a team that can grab containers or cheesecake a team to do so.

It's not like they really need the ramp to clear the landfill... And if they want they can tether it to another alliance partner who is running the auto (given weight allows).

[Neima]

Originally Posted by Lidor51

Curie: 1114, 148, 1816, 228

I don't think 1816 would be a pick for this alliance because they go from the land fill and this alliance would want a second feeder station robot.

[Woolly]

Originally Posted by FIMAlumni

Can you explain to me why you would split the RCs 2-2? If I have the faster can grabbers, I'm going to grab all 4 to lower your alliance score even if I can only score two of them. This elimination structure is brutal and 1 bad match by 2 teams in the QFs (from my alliance stealing the RCs) is two less teams I have to beat to move on. By splitting the RCs, you may move on to the SF while I'm stuck trying to find a good seat for the next round.

It will be less of an agreement, and more of an alliance deciding to take the cans they know they can get with their faster can theft device that happens to be attached to their best stacking robot, because they don't want to risk said stacking robot. Spending half the match or more tied up in some can battle disaster can kill your alliance much more easily than not having 7 cans to use.

[Greg Needel]

Originally Posted by FIMAlumni

Can you explain to me why you would split the RCs 2-2? If I have the faster can grabbers, I'm going to grab all 4 to lower your alliance score even if I can only score two of them. This elimination structure is brutal and 1 bad match by 2 teams in the QFs (from my alliance stealing the RCs) is two less teams I have to beat to move on. By splitting the RCs, you may move on to the SF while I'm stuck trying to find a good seat for the next round.

It all comes down to not being able to guarantee that you are faster. Fast can grabbers are a relative game, if .25 seconds is the mean time that we are using for reference and every alliance has 2 robots that can do it that fast, how often will you KNOW that you are going to get all 4.

Assuming your team can use all the cans look at the point potentials

step cans         Points (all 42 point stacks)
0	              126
1	              168
2	              210
3	              252
4	              294

I would rather bet on getting 210 pts in a match carrying me forward than risk 126 and know I will be out.

Now this is only in the situation where winning the can race is in doubt. If you know you will win, you never agree to this deal, as it lowers your scoring potential for no reason.

Originally Posted by Woolly

It will be less of an agreement, and more of an alliance deciding to take the cans they know they can get with their faster can theft device that happens to be attached to their best stacking robot, because they don't want to risk said stacking robot. Spending half the match or more tied up in some can battle disaster can kill your alliance much more easily than not having 7 cans to use.

This brings up another point. I say you always put your 3rd robot (cheese caked or organic) with whips up against the best scorer (with whips) on the other alliance. In the chance that they do get caught up the impact could be huge regardless of who gets the cans.

[MrJohnston]

Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard

And I guarantee 1114 has a fast canburglar by now.
So there's that.

Yes, I'm sure they do. However, the real questions are: How fast is it? and "Is somebody clever enough to build a faster one?" 1114 is a great team top to bottom. However, they are all human. They can be beaten. If they don't have the fastest canburgler, they are vulnerable.

Do I think they will most likely win? Certainly. However, I really believe that FRC is a competition and I plan to compete - there is no reason to roll over. Am I 90% likely to lose? Yup. 99%? Probably. However, I am going to do everything I can to try to beat them.

Let's not deify that pair and, instead, find some way to better them. If we prevent them from gaining any center bins, they will lose. I'll give them the 206 points calculated above. That won't get them out of the quarterfinals either. They need at least one (likely two) center bins just like the rest of us.

[Cash4587]

Originally Posted by CaityDawh

254 is tethered to their ramp, so they can't grab containers form the step during Auto. That means that they will either pick a team that can grab containers or cheesecake a team to do so.

Or tether their ramp to a team say, somebody like us or 1296 who has weight left over and needs to be in that zone anyway who can also make lots of stacks. Who knows how it will play out though. We are working on our autonomous sequence the next few days To see if we can do a thing or two with those gold ones with those extra 15 seconds.