Very intersting, I like this idea. One problem I can see is that there are some teams that their last regional was early in the season (week 1-3), and I think the OPR of those teams won't represent the amount of points they will score at the Championship (they got a lot of time to practice, but it wasn't in an official competition so there isn't any recorded data of their improvement).
Quote:
Originally Posted by themccannman
The problem with trying to use variation or standard deviation with OPR is that the number it spits out pretty much just tells you what their match schedule was like. OPR is already a calculation of how much an alliances score tends to change when certain teams are playing, calculating standard deviation for that basically just going backwards. OPR tries to determine how one robot affects an alliances score, where as SD (with unique alliances) would give you how each alliance affected that robots score.
Unfortunately it's not very useful unless you have actual scouted data for each team to use, in which case you can make much more accurate predictions about rankings. Our scouting system had a little less than an 80% success rate guessing the winners of each match in our division the last two years, and those games were very defense heavy. I would bet on this system approaching a 95% success rate guessing match results this year since the game is much more consistent.
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Pretty high percentages. Can you tell more about the system? What data it's based on, and what are the calculations it does?
CD threads are supposed to be about something? - Tim Baird [more] 
19-04-2015, 07:36
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