2015 Championship division simulated rankings

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by CVR

I think that your calculation method, such is essentially the following:

Red score = Red1_OPR + Red2_OPR + Red3_OPR

Greatly overestimates qual scores.

I think it might be more accurate to seperate the co-op and auto scores from OPR. In a single match, only one team can do co-op, and only one team can do auto (not entirely true, but pretty close). By counting all 3 team's auto and co-op scores, you're triple-weighting those scores.
Example: Qual 24 has three red teams, each of which have a co-op OPR of 20 (100% consistent 3 tote stack) and an auto OPR of 40 (100% consistent co-op). However, their tote, RC, and litter OPRs are each zero, for a total OPR for each team of 60. The score for this match would be 60, as they would get one auto stack and complete co-op. However, your method predicts the score being 180 points. That's an extreme example, but it illustrates the issue well.
I think a better method would be to use the following:

Red Score =
Red1_(toteOPR + binOPR + litterOPR)
+ Red2_(toteOPR + binOPR + litterOPR)
+ Red3_(toteOPR + binOPR + litterOPR)
+ MAX(Red1_autoOPR, Red2_autoOPR, Red3_autoOPR)
+ MAX(Red1_coopOPR, Red2_coopOPR, Red3_coopOPR)

I think that method, while slightly more complex, will give more accurate results.

I concur this is correct method. However, it's also important this year to use the Max OPR, not average, as teams improved dramatically through the season. I've got a message into Ed Law on a method to extract the Max Auto and Coop OPRs from this database.