2015 Carson Division

[1629GaCo]

1629 GaCo, is looking forward to the challenge. We have the 20 point auto, great at coopertition, and can make some stacks! We can/will be valuable for an alliance in elims, the 20 point auto can make or break things!!! We will just be out there trying to be as consistent as we can be! Keep us in mind!

[Ken Streeter]

Originally Posted by Adam Freeman

Yuck! SOS 74 out of 76...

Ouch! We thought our 61 of 76 was going to be an uphill climb -- you're in an even tougher spot!

Then, looking at the average "SOS" for 1629 -- that's quite a hole, makes me wonder if it can even be correct, being over 20 points below 75th place -- but, assuming it is correct, it's cool to hear that they seem unphased by the challenge!

[nuclearnerd]

I've updated the table to include a "SOS difference from the mean" column. This gives a signal for just how much boost or hindrance the schedule might mean for a team's QA:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...sp=sheets_home

Don't take this table as gospel though - the max OPRs from previous events won't tell you exactly how much your alliance mates will help at Carson (as previously disclaimed).

[nuclearnerd]

... and I just read this post about the overly weighted influence of auto OPR on the predicted score. Oh goody, more work to do
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...8&postcount=13

[angelah]

I have a favor for anyone in Carson...

We need a cross fitting (am-2380) for our pneumatics before inspection. We ordered one to our pit, but at MSC our order didn't get to our pit until Thursday night, so I'm not sure we will have it in time. If anyone could loan us one, we can give it back when ours arrives.

Thanks!

[nuclearnerd]

OK, that took longer than expected, but I updated the SOS spreadsheet to show the modified method of match prediction mentioned upthread. It certainly shifted the SOS rankings around a bit, but the team955 OPR database has a couple of differences than Ed Law's, so that could have been responsible too.

I've also added a column for *prediction caution* which flags any match predicted to exhaust the 3 staged cans. That's like half of them, so expect there to be many fewer QAs over 130 than predicted.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1772597961

Finaly, Angelah - We don't have a cross fitting, but I think we can spare two (1/4" press-in) tee fittings. If that helps, feel free to visit us at our pit.

Edit - just thinking a bit more, there's some other weirdness about the predicted co-op scores in SOS V2. I've added some comments about that here: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...1&postcount=24

[AWoL]

16
67
85 (1x)
225 (2+2)
254
558
973
1511
1519
1711
2471
3339
4488 (1x)
5122

Minor update to the canburgaling list...our 4 can autonomous ran successfully at the Upper Darby MAR District Event where we started on one side and then drove over to the other side of the field and got the other set of two cans.

[Amit3339]

Originally Posted by AWoL

16
67
85 (1x)
225 (2+2)
254
558
973
1511
1519
1711
2471
3339
4488 (1x)
5122

Minor update to the canburgaling list...our 4 can autonomous ran successfully at the Upper Darby MAR District Event where we started on one side and then drove over to the other side of the field and got the other set of two cans.

Do you remember in which game/s did you guys used this autonomous? And if you do do you have any videos?

[ThunderousPrime]

Originally Posted by Amit3339

Do you remember in which game/s did you guys used this autonomous? And if you do do you have any videos?

I dont have a link to tge video right now but I saw it yesterday and can verify that it happened at least in one match.

[1629GaCo]

Originally Posted by Ken Streeter

Ouch! We thought our 61 of 76 was going to be an uphill climb -- you're in an even tougher spot!

Then, looking at the average "SOS" for 1629 -- that's quite a hole, makes me wonder if it can even be correct, being over 20 points below 75th place -- but, assuming it is correct, it's cool to hear that they seem unphased by the challenge!

Why would we be phased by the challenge? In 2015, we won a regional, and the Chairmans Award, what a great season already!!! Championships is just icing on the cake! We here at Team 1629 take everything in stride. To quote my 2 year old daughter "That's what you get and don't throw a fit". So when it comes to match schedules, that is the philosophy we use. The only thing we can control somewhat is the strategy that is played out in each match to maximize points!!! Good luck to all teams!

[Jaywalker1711]

Originally Posted by 1629GaCo

Why would we be phased by the challenge? In 2015, we won a regional, and the Chairmans Award, what a great season already!!! Championships is just icing on the cake! We here at Team 1629 take everything in stride. To quote my 2 year old daughter "That's what you get and don't throw a fit". So when it comes to match schedules, that is the philosophy we use. The only thing we can control somewhat is the strategy that is played out in each match to maximize points!!! Good luck to all teams!

I love this guy! I hope that we are on an alliance with you!

[carlgr32]

Team 85 rocks my face off!!!!!!!! GO Carson division

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by carlgr32

Team 85 rocks my face off!!!!!!!! GO Carson division

Sounds painful.

[Ken Streeter]

Originally Posted by 1629GaCo

Why would we be phased by the challenge? In 2015, we won a regional, and the Chairmans Award, what a great season already!!! Championships is just icing on the cake!

What a fantastic attitude! Sorry we're not scheduled to have a match together.

When I saw that there was an "SOS v2" I thought, "Maybe 1629 won't still be 76 of 76 in the new list." However, it looks like you still are bottom of the list.

However, 1519 is moving down to keep you company. We went from "61 of 76" in "SOS v1" to "73 of 76" in the new list!

We're looking forward to working with our alliance partners to come up with some strategies that defy the predictions...

[nuclearnerd]

Originally Posted by Ken Streeter

However, 1519 is moving down to keep you company. We went from "61 of 76" in "SOS v1" to "73 of 76" in the new list!

The V2 algorithm works against consistent co-op teams like 1519 (and 5406 fwiw). It assumes that your team will do co-op all of the time, but that the next highest co-op teams on your alliance will only score their average number of stacks (instead of making more stacks with the time they save not co-oping). Still - it does highlight the fact that you need to work on the strategy for those matches.