ChampionSplit: A Historical Perspective

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by MrRoboSteve

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1. I suspect that FRC team count will reach equilibrium in the US in the next couple years, primarily because teams exist in nearly every location that can sustain a team. If team count levels out, what does that mean regarding future structure.
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There are 20,000 (ish) high schools in the US. SO, yeah, FIRST FRC will reach an equilibrium in the US at some point but is that point going to be reached in the next couple (or even several) years? I don't think we're anywhere close to that point.

A few years back, when CA and MI were essentially tied for the most FIRST teams in a state at ~150 or so. I thought, well, CA is so much bigger, they have all those sexy SV start ups, they have a diverse high tech economy, their biggest employers are not going bankrupt, they're clearly going to leave MI in the dust. I didn't think MI could really expand much. In short, thought MI wasn't far from its FRC peak.

Years passed, CA now has 300+ teams. But to my surprise, MI has grown even faster still with 400+ teams.

Bottom line: I don't think we really know where FIRST is going to peak. With the right group of motivated people (I'm looking at you FiM), I don't see any reason FIRST FRC can't peak and something close to 20,000.

Dr. Joe J.

P.S. Don't tell me that MI is a special case. Of COURSE it's a special case. Every state, country, continent is a special case.

Just to be clear, yes, MI had some advantages when it comes to supporting FIRST FRC teams but not everything in MI was a bed of roses. FiM was started when many of the states' biggest employers were filing for bankruptcy. There was every reason to lay down and die. But they didn't. They worked their butts off and fought and fought and got knocked down but then got up and fought some more. From my POV, the MI experience should give every region, state, whatever hope that they can make themselves a into special case.