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Unread 13-05-2015, 12:31
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Re: "standard error" of OPR values

I have to strongly agree with what Ed had to say above. Errors in OPR happen when its assumptions go unmet: partner or opponent interaction, team inconsistency (including improvement), etc. If one if these single factors caused significantly more variation than the others, then the standard error might be a reasonable estimate of that factor. However, I don't believe that this is the case.

Another option would be to take this measure in the same way that we take OPR. We know that OPR is not a perfect depiction of a team's robot quality or even a team's contribution to its alliance, but we use OPR anyway. In the same way, we know the standard error is an imperfect depiction of a team's variation in contribution.

People constantly use the same example in discussing consistency in FRC. A low-seeded captain, when considering two similarly contributing teams, is generally better off selecting an inconsistent team over a consistent one. Standard error could be a reasonable measure of this inconsistency (whether due to simple variation or improvement). At a scouting meeting, higher standard error could indicate "teams to watch" (for improvement).

But without having tried it, I suspect a team's standard error will ultimately be mostly unintelligible noise.
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