Go to Post Pro-tip: Friends don't let friends play defense! (in qualifications) - Mr. Lim [more]
Home
Go Back   Chief Delphi > FIRST > General Forum
CD-Media   CD-Spy  
portal register members calendar search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read FAQ rules

 
Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 4 votes, 5.00 average. Display Modes
  #1   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 13-05-2015, 14:03
Citrus Dad's Avatar
Citrus Dad Citrus Dad is offline
Business and Scouting Mentor
AKA: Richard McCann
FRC #1678 (Citrus Circuits)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: May 2012
Rookie Year: 2012
Location: Davis
Posts: 991
Citrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond repute
Re: "standard error" of OPR values

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed Law View Post
However the engineer in me tells me that it is a waste of time. Based on the noise factors I listed above and that the robot performance may change over time, this becomes just a mathematical exercise and does not have much contribution to the prediction of outcome of the next match.

However I do support the publication of the R^2 coefficient of determination. It will give an overall number as to how well the actual outcome fits the statistical model.
The statistician in me led to asking this question. One aspect is that I believe publishing standard errors for parameter estimates provides greater transparency. Plus it is very educational. I suspect that most students looking at OPRs don't understand that they are actually statistical estimates with large error bands around the parameter estimates. Providing that education is directly in line with our STEM mission. Too many engineers don't understand the implications and importance of statistical properties in their own work (I see it constantly in my professional life.)

And regardless I think see the SEs lets us see if a team has a more variable performance than another. That's another piece of information that we can then use to explore it further. For example is the variability arising because parts keep breaking or is there an underlying improvement trend through the competition--either one would increase the SE compared to a steady performance rate. There's other tools for digging into that data, but we may not look unless we have that SE measure first.
Reply With Quote
  #2   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 13-05-2015, 17:37
IKE's Avatar
IKE IKE is offline
Not so Custom User Title
AKA: Isaac Rife
no team (N/A)
Team Role: Mechanical
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Rookie Year: 2003
Location: Michigan
Posts: 2,149
IKE has a reputation beyond reputeIKE has a reputation beyond reputeIKE has a reputation beyond reputeIKE has a reputation beyond reputeIKE has a reputation beyond reputeIKE has a reputation beyond reputeIKE has a reputation beyond reputeIKE has a reputation beyond reputeIKE has a reputation beyond reputeIKE has a reputation beyond reputeIKE has a reputation beyond repute
Re: "standard error" of OPR values

Kind of reminds me of a joke I heard this past weekend that was accidentally butchered:

A physicist, engineer and a statistician are out hunting. Suddenly, a deer appears 50 yards away.

The physicist does some basic ballistic calculations, assuming a vacuum, lifts his rifle to a specific angle, and shoots. The bullet lands 5 yards short.

The engineer adds a fudge factor for air resistance, lifts his rifle slightly higher, and shoots. The bullet lands 5 yards long.

The statistician yells "We got him!"
************************************************** ********

A really interesting read into "what is important" from stats in basketball:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/ma...ewanted=1&_r=0

+/- system is probably the most similar "stat" to OPR utilized in basketball. It is figured a different way, but is a good way of estimating impact from a player vs. just using points/rebounds and....

The article does a really good job of doing some comparison to a metric like that to more typical event driven stats to actual impactful details of a particularly difficult to scout player.

I really enjoy the line where it discusses trying to find undervalued mid pack players. Often with scouting, this is exactly what you too are trying to do. Rank the #16-#24 team at an event as accurately as possible in order to help foster your alliances best chance at advancing.

If you enjoy this topic, enjoy the article, and have not read Moneyball, it is well worth the read. I enjoyed the movie, but the book is so much better about the details.
Reply With Quote
  #3   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 13-05-2015, 18:35
Citrus Dad's Avatar
Citrus Dad Citrus Dad is offline
Business and Scouting Mentor
AKA: Richard McCann
FRC #1678 (Citrus Circuits)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: May 2012
Rookie Year: 2012
Location: Davis
Posts: 991
Citrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond reputeCitrus Dad has a reputation beyond repute
Re: "standard error" of OPR values

Quote:
Originally Posted by IKE View Post
Kind of reminds me of a joke I heard this past weekend that was accidentally butchered:

A physicist, engineer and a statistician are out hunting. Suddenly, a deer appears 50 yards away.

The physicist does some basic ballistic calculations, assuming a vacuum, lifts his rifle to a specific angle, and shoots. The bullet lands 5 yards short.

The engineer adds a fudge factor for air resistance, lifts his rifle slightly higher, and shoots. The bullet lands 5 yards long.

The statistician yells "We got him!"
Of course! I'm absolutely successful everytime I go hunting!

There's an equivalent economists' joke in which trying to feed a group on a desert island ends with "assume a can opener!"
************************************************** ********

Quote:
Originally Posted by IKE View Post
If you enjoy this topic, enjoy the article, and have not read Moneyball, it is well worth the read. I enjoyed the movie, but the book is so much better about the details.
Wholly endorse Moneyball to anyone reading this thread. It's what FRC scouting is all about. We call our system "MoneyBot."

In baseball, this use of statistics is called "sabremetrics." Bill James is the originator of this method.

Last edited by Citrus Dad : 13-05-2015 at 18:41. Reason: added about sabremetrics
Reply With Quote
  #4   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 27-05-2015, 17:45
jtrv's Avatar
jtrv jtrv is offline
github.com/jhtervay
AKA: Justin
FRC #2791 (Shaker Robotics)
Team Role: College Student
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Rookie Year: 2012
Location: Latham, NY
Posts: 148
jtrv is a name known to alljtrv is a name known to alljtrv is a name known to alljtrv is a name known to alljtrv is a name known to alljtrv is a name known to all
Re: "standard error" of OPR values

hi all,

as a student going into his first year of undergrad this fall, this kind of stuff interests me. what level (or course equivalent or experience of the student) is this kind of stuff typically taught at?

I have researched into interpolation, as I would like to spend some time developing spline path generation for auton modes independently, and that particular area requires a bit of knowledge in Linear Algebra, which I will begin the process of self-teaching soon enough.

As for this, what would be the equivalent of interpolation:linear algebra?

I don't mean to hijack the thread, but it feels like the most appropriate place to ask...
__________________
2791 (2012-2017)
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:50.

The Chief Delphi Forums are sponsored by Innovation First International, Inc.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © Chief Delphi