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Unread 13-05-2015, 17:37
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Re: "standard error" of OPR values

Kind of reminds me of a joke I heard this past weekend that was accidentally butchered:

A physicist, engineer and a statistician are out hunting. Suddenly, a deer appears 50 yards away.

The physicist does some basic ballistic calculations, assuming a vacuum, lifts his rifle to a specific angle, and shoots. The bullet lands 5 yards short.

The engineer adds a fudge factor for air resistance, lifts his rifle slightly higher, and shoots. The bullet lands 5 yards long.

The statistician yells "We got him!"
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A really interesting read into "what is important" from stats in basketball:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/ma...ewanted=1&_r=0

+/- system is probably the most similar "stat" to OPR utilized in basketball. It is figured a different way, but is a good way of estimating impact from a player vs. just using points/rebounds and....

The article does a really good job of doing some comparison to a metric like that to more typical event driven stats to actual impactful details of a particularly difficult to scout player.

I really enjoy the line where it discusses trying to find undervalued mid pack players. Often with scouting, this is exactly what you too are trying to do. Rank the #16-#24 team at an event as accurately as possible in order to help foster your alliances best chance at advancing.

If you enjoy this topic, enjoy the article, and have not read Moneyball, it is well worth the read. I enjoyed the movie, but the book is so much better about the details.
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Unread 13-05-2015, 18:35
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Re: "standard error" of OPR values

Quote:
Originally Posted by IKE View Post
Kind of reminds me of a joke I heard this past weekend that was accidentally butchered:

A physicist, engineer and a statistician are out hunting. Suddenly, a deer appears 50 yards away.

The physicist does some basic ballistic calculations, assuming a vacuum, lifts his rifle to a specific angle, and shoots. The bullet lands 5 yards short.

The engineer adds a fudge factor for air resistance, lifts his rifle slightly higher, and shoots. The bullet lands 5 yards long.

The statistician yells "We got him!"
Of course! I'm absolutely successful everytime I go hunting!

There's an equivalent economists' joke in which trying to feed a group on a desert island ends with "assume a can opener!"
************************************************** ********

Quote:
Originally Posted by IKE View Post
If you enjoy this topic, enjoy the article, and have not read Moneyball, it is well worth the read. I enjoyed the movie, but the book is so much better about the details.
Wholly endorse Moneyball to anyone reading this thread. It's what FRC scouting is all about. We call our system "MoneyBot."

In baseball, this use of statistics is called "sabremetrics." Bill James is the originator of this method.

Last edited by Citrus Dad : 13-05-2015 at 18:41. Reason: added about sabremetrics
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