"standard error" of OPR values

[wgardner]

Originally Posted by sur

This sounds very similar to bootstrap resampling (http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/40...lecture-08.pdf), which should measure the variation in estimated OPR from the "true" OPR values rather than how consistently individual teams perform. This may be why the values are virtually identical.

Yep, though my derivation is for straight bootstrapping (Figure #1 in your attachment) rather than re-sampled bootstrapping (Figure #3). And yes, given this, the standard errors I compute are the variations of the OPR estimates if they fit the model, all of which assumes that there is not variation in the way individual teams perform other than their mean contribution. Obviously, this final assumption is suspect.