Incorporating Opposing Alliance Information in CCWM Calculations

[wgardner]

The following results are from my scilab sim for the 2015 MISJO tournament. Again, this should be a BAD tournament year for both CCWM and WMPR as there was little defense involved.

For OPR, the winning margin was predicted by computing the prediction for the offensive score of the red alliance and subtracting the prediction for the offensive score of the blue alliance from it.

For CCWM, the winning margin was predicted by computing the prediction of the winning margin of the red alliance and subtracting the prediction for the winning margin of the blue alliance from it.

For WMPR, the winning margin was computed the same was as in CCWM, but using the values computed using the WMPR derivation instead of the CCWM derivation.

Standard deviations of the prediction residuals of the winning margins:
OPR: 25.6
CCWM: 21.1
WMPR: 15.9

(interesting that CCWM and WMPR both do better than OPR, even in a game with "no defense." Perhaps the race to get the center cans acts like defense in that a team that does well at that may cause the opposing alliance to have a lower score? Or litter?)

The tournament had 80 matches but one match appeared to be a tie, so there were only 79 matches where the match outcome could be predicted.

# of match outcomes predicted correctly:
OPR: 67
CCWM: 66
WMPR: 68

(This is all on the training data (!). I'm not using data not in the training set yet.)