Incorporating Opposing Alliance Information in CCWM Calculations

[wgardner]

[Edit: The data has been updated to reflect an error in the previous code. Previously, the data was reported for the scaled down versions of the metrics in the TESTING DATA section. Now, the data is reported for the unscaled metrics (though the last table for each tournament shows the benefits of scaling them, which is substantial!)]

Here's the data for the four 2014 tournaments starting with "A". My thoughts will be in a subsequent post:

2014: archi
Teams = 100, Matches = 167, Matches Per Team = 1.670

TRAINING DATA
Stdev of winning margin prediction residual
OPR :  51.3.	 66.9% of outcome variance predicted.
CCWM:  57.0.	 59.2% of outcome variance predicted.
WMPR:  36.1.	 83.6% of outcome variance predicted.

Match prediction outcomes
OPR : 142 of 166  (85.5 %)
CCWM: 146 of 166  (88.0 %)
WMPR: 154 of 166  (92.8 %)

TESTING DATA
Stdev of winning margin prediction residual
OPR :  72.1.	 34.8% of outcome variance predicted.
CCWM:  85.2.	  8.8% of outcome variance predicted.
WMPR:  89.3.	 -0.1% of outcome variance predicted.

Match prediction outcomes
OPR : 127 of 166  (76.5 %)
CCWM: 124 of 166  (74.7 %)
WMPR: 123 of 166  (74.1 %)

Stdev of testing data winning margin prediction residual with scaled versions of the metrics
Weight:	  1.0	  0.9	  0.8	  0.7	  0.6	  0.5
OPR:	 72.1	 70.8	 70.2	 70.3	 71.2	 72.8
CCWM:	 85.2	 80.3	 76.3	 73.5	 71.9	 71.7
WMPR:	 89.3	 84.3	 80.3	 77.3	 75.4	 74.7


2014: abca
Teams = 35, Matches = 76, Matches Per Team = 2.171

TRAINING DATA
Stdev of winning margin prediction residual
OPR :  59.8.	 65.1% of outcome variance predicted.
CCWM:  62.9.	 61.2% of outcome variance predicted.
WMPR:  51.5.	 74.1% of outcome variance predicted.

Match prediction outcomes
OPR :  63 of  76  (82.9 %)
CCWM:  60 of  76  (78.9 %)
WMPR:  65 of  76  (85.5 %)

TESTING DATA
Stdev of winning margin prediction residual
OPR :  78.9.	 39.1% of outcome variance predicted.
CCWM:  93.6.	 14.4% of outcome variance predicted.
WMPR:  92.5.	 16.3% of outcome variance predicted.

Match prediction outcomes
OPR :  56 of  76  (73.7 %)
CCWM:  55 of  76  (72.4 %)
WMPR:  55 of  76  (72.4 %)

Stdev of testing data winning margin prediction residual with scaled versions of the metrics
Weight:	  1.0	  0.9	  0.8	  0.7	  0.6	  0.5
OPR:	 78.9	 77.9	 77.6	 78.2	 79.6	 81.6
CCWM:	 93.6	 89.5	 86.4	 84.3	 83.4	 83.7
WMPR:	 92.5	 88.8	 86.1	 84.3	 83.6	 84.1


2014: arfa
Teams = 39, Matches = 78, Matches Per Team = 2.000

TRAINING DATA
Stdev of winning margin prediction residual
OPR :  45.8.	 61.4% of outcome variance predicted.
CCWM:  46.6.	 60.1% of outcome variance predicted.
WMPR:  38.2.	 73.1% of outcome variance predicted.

Match prediction outcomes
OPR :  59 of  78  (75.6 %)
CCWM:  66 of  78  (84.6 %)
WMPR:  64 of  78  (82.1 %)

TESTING DATA
Stdev of winning margin prediction residual
OPR :  61.8.	 29.8% of outcome variance predicted.
CCWM:  71.7.	  5.6% of outcome variance predicted.
WMPR:  75.4.	 -4.5% of outcome variance predicted.

Match prediction outcomes
OPR :  55 of  78  (70.5 %)
CCWM:  53 of  78  (67.9 %)
WMPR:  49 of  78  (62.8 %)

Stdev of testing data winning margin prediction residual with scaled versions of the metrics
Weight:	  1.0	  0.9	  0.8	  0.7	  0.6	  0.5
OPR:	 61.8	 61.0	 60.6	 60.8	 61.4	 62.5
CCWM:	 71.7	 68.4	 65.9	 64.1	 63.1	 62.9
WMPR:	 75.4	 71.9	 69.1	 66.9	 65.5	 64.9


2014: azch
Teams = 49, Matches = 82, Matches Per Team = 1.673

TRAINING DATA
Stdev of winning margin prediction residual
OPR :  36.3.	 78.2% of outcome variance predicted.
CCWM:  37.8.	 76.4% of outcome variance predicted.
WMPR:  25.5.	 89.2% of outcome variance predicted.

Match prediction outcomes
OPR :  66 of  79  (83.5 %)
CCWM:  68 of  79  (86.1 %)
WMPR:  73 of  79  (92.4 %)

TESTING DATA
Stdev of winning margin prediction residual
OPR :  52.1.	 54.9% of outcome variance predicted.
CCWM:  67.5.	 24.6% of outcome variance predicted.
WMPR:  63.0.	 34.3% of outcome variance predicted.

Match prediction outcomes
OPR :  59 of  79  (74.7 %)
CCWM:  56 of  79  (70.9 %)
WMPR:  66 of  79  (83.5 %)

Stdev of testing data winning margin prediction residual with scaled versions of the metrics
Weight:	  1.0	  0.9	  0.8	  0.7	  0.6	  0.5
OPR:	 52.1	 52.1	 52.8	 54.2	 56.2	 58.7
CCWM:	 67.5	 65.7	 64.6	 64.1	 64.2	 65.0
WMPR:	 63.0	 59.6	 57.3	 56.1	 56.1	 57.3