Overview and Analysis of FIRST Stats

[AGPapa]

Originally Posted by wgardner

Thanks, AGPapa! I wonder if you could do the following:

1. Could you report the average squared error in the scores and/or winning margin, in addition to the probability of correct match outcome?

2. Your runs were using 150 values as the "training set" and 17 as the "testing set". Could you run them with other splits, like using 50 or 100 matches as training and the remaining part as testing? It would be interesting to see how the different techniques perform as the tournament progresses.

Cheers.

Here's the average squared error in the match scores.

LS OPR (no prior): 3555.75
MMSE OPR (Oavg prior) : 3088.70
MMSE OPR (World OPR prior): 2973.91
MMSE OPR (regressed World OPR prior): 3000.04


I'll work on the 50 and 100 match splits and put them up later.

EDIT: I think I should elaborate a bit more on how I'm doing the priors. I've been adding a constant to everyone's World OPR so that the average of the OPRs is equal to Oavg. Essentially I'm saying that every robot improved by a constant. (These constants are very small, only Archimedes was greater than 1.5 points)