"standard error" of OPR values

[wgardner]

Originally Posted by GeeTwo

On another slightly related matter, I have wondered why CCWM (Combined Contribution to Winning Margin) is calculated by combining separate calculations of OPR and DPR, rather than by solving a single matrix of winning margin. I suspect that the single calculation would prove to be more consistent for games with robot-based defense (not Recycle Rush); if a robot plays offense five matches and defense five matches, then both OPR and DPR would each have a lot of noise, whereas true CCWM should be a more consistent number.

Yes, read the paper attached in the first post of this thread. What you described is called the Winning Margin Power Rating (WMPR) or Combined Power Rating (CPR) in that paper depending on how you choose to normalize it (called WMPR if the means are 0 like CCWM or called CPR if the means equal the means of the OPRs). If combined with MMSE estimation to address some overfitting issues, it can occasionally result in improved match prediction compared to OPR, DPR, or CCWM measures. Even in years with a lot of defense though, it's not a whole lot better.