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Unread 01-12-2015, 00:54
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

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Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber View Post
...lots of good info...
If it is easy to do, could you try this method on just the top 24 teams at each event?
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Unread 01-12-2015, 06:36
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

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Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes View Post
If it is easy to do, could you try this method on just the top 24 teams at each event?
https://gist.github.com/schreiaj/e87...file-top24-tsv

It does change things up, makes a lot of events look more balanced. For reading the Gini column - 0 is balanced, 1 is unbalanced.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dodar View Post
Andrew, would that be possible to do for Regionals?
https://gist.github.com/schreiaj/e87...b#file-all-tsv That actually included regionals, but districts seem to be more balanced.
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Last edited by Andrew Schreiber : 01-12-2015 at 08:59. Reason: Missed Dodar's request
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Unread 01-12-2015, 07:02
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

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You're forgetting that the Skunks were there last year too. I think they won it or something...
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Unread 01-12-2015, 09:35
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

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Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber View Post
After that I started asking myself how I could quantify competitiveness of an event. Frankly, I enjoy watching an event where the winner isn't a known thing[3]. So I did a bit of research, for those of you unfamiliar with the Gini Coefficient, it's a measure of income disparity in nations. But, at it's core, it's a measure of equality of distribution. So, I got to wondering if I could leverage the math behind it to find events with lots of close teams.
Wouldn't an event with 50 box bots struggling to move score better than an event with 30 elite teams (254, 1114, 148...) and 20 box bots struggling to move? I'd agree that is a good measure of 'competitiveness', but it is a little misleading in a 'strongest event' thread.
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Unread 01-12-2015, 10:14
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

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Originally Posted by XaulZan11 View Post
Wouldn't an event with 50 box bots struggling to move score better than an event with 30 elite teams (254, 1114, 148...) and 20 box bots struggling to move? I'd agree that is a good measure of 'competitiveness', but it is a little misleading in a 'strongest event' thread.
Yes. I can see about generating box and whisker plots for each event based on dynasty scores. That would give you a more visual way of comparing and seeing events like you describe.

You see why I explained the concept in detail rather than just giving numbers.
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Last edited by Andrew Schreiber : 01-12-2015 at 10:27.
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Unread 01-12-2015, 11:16
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

^ Yes, your Kettering event for Michigan....

of the 40 team field, 9 teams have more than two years experience.
Of the 9 teams that have more than 2 years experience, only two teams have finished in the top 20 (2011-2015) of the state...

70 More Martians (2011, 2012, 2015)
3656 Deadbots (2013)

Meanwhile down the street at Waterford has nine top 20 finishers... with 32 total top 20 finishes between them...

33 Killer Bees
51 Wings of Fire
67 The HOT Team
245 Adambots
1023 Bedford Express
1189 The Gearheads
1718 The Fighting Pi
2137 TORC
3098 The Captains

And still seven open spots...

I know where I will be watching week 1...
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Unread 01-12-2015, 11:17
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber View Post
https://gist.github.com/schreiaj/e87...file-top24-tsv

It does change things up, makes a lot of events look more balanced. For reading the Gini column - 0 is balanced, 1 is unbalanced.
Thanks, this is really interesting. I'm surprised by how much more balanced the top 24 are when compared to all teams. I suppose that every 40+ team event has at least 10 teams that almost never make playoffs, which really increases the disparity.
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Unread 01-12-2015, 11:32
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

The two metrics I like to look at when gauging the top end teams at a regional during the preseason are the number of previous year Championship elimination round teams and Einstein teams. I've only counted for the events we're attending, but I'm sure someone could run the numbers across all events.

GTR East:
Champs Elim Teams: 6/52
Einstein Teams: 4/52

Waterloo:
Champs Elim Teams: 8/32
Einstein Teams: 3/32

I'm guessing no other regional is going to match the 25% number that Waterloo has, but that's probably artificially inflated by the size (or lack thereof) of the event. That being said, that 25% number also means you're not going to run into many matches without a high level team. So the event becomes that much more webcast/spectator friendly.
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Unread 01-12-2015, 11:58
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

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Originally Posted by Karthik View Post
I'm guessing no other regional is going to match the 25% number that Waterloo has, but that's probably artificially inflated by the size (or lack thereof) of the event.
I'd also assume that 25% is partially due to the abnormally high percentage of teams from Canada making the championship due to the smaller regionals.
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Unread 01-12-2015, 12:01
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

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Originally Posted by Karthik View Post
... the event becomes that much more webcast/spectator friendly.
Team quality is one reason for this. Field volunteers are another.

Wish I were going ...
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Unread 01-12-2015, 12:03
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

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Originally Posted by XaulZan11 View Post
I'd also assume that 25% is partially due to the abnormally high percentage of teams from Canada making the championship due to the smaller regionals.
That would explain a larger number of teams who attended Championship in the previous year, but it wouldn't explain why the teams were so successful at Championship.
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Unread 01-12-2015, 12:13
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

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Originally Posted by Karthik View Post
That would explain a larger number of teams who attended Championship in the previous year, but it wouldn't explain why the teams were so successful at Championship.
Unless we had data backing a causative (or at least correlative) relationship between attending championships and future success on the field, which I don't think is a link anyone has shown, but is something I think many assume.
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Last edited by cadandcookies : 01-12-2015 at 12:15.
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Unread 01-12-2015, 12:32
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karthik View Post
GTR East:
Champs Elim Teams: 6/52
Einstein Teams: 4/52

Waterloo:
Champs Elim Teams: 8/32
Einstein Teams: 3/32

I'm guessing no other regional is going to match the 25% number that Waterloo has, but that's probably artificially inflated by the size (or lack thereof) of the event. That being said, that 25% number also means you're not going to run into many matches without a high level team. So the event becomes that much more webcast/spectator friendly.
The ratio is effective at determining the competitiveness of the average qualification match but everything playoff related including seeding is better represented by the actual number of Championship playoff teams.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karthik View Post
That would explain a larger number of teams who attended Championship in the previous year, but it wouldn't explain why the teams were so successful at Championship.
The more teams that get sent to champs, the less there is a chance of a good team getting snubbed which happens quite frequently in areas without districts or fewer/bigger events.
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Unread 01-12-2015, 13:56
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karthik View Post
The two metrics I like to look at when gauging the top end teams at a regional during the preseason are the number of previous year Championship elimination round teams and Einstein teams. I've only counted for the events we're attending, but I'm sure someone could run the numbers across all events.

GTR East:
Champs Elim Teams: 6/52
Einstein Teams: 4/52

Waterloo:
Champs Elim Teams: 8/32
Einstein Teams: 3/32

I'm guessing no other regional is going to match the 25% number that Waterloo has, but that's probably artificially inflated by the size (or lack thereof) of the event. That being said, that 25% number also means you're not going to run into many matches without a high level team. So the event becomes that much more webcast/spectator friendly.
Hartford District -
Champs Elims 10/38 (26%)
Einstein - 0/38

Last edited by page2067 : 01-12-2015 at 14:03.
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Unread 01-12-2015, 14:06
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Re: Strongest Regionals/District 2016?

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Originally Posted by page2067 View Post
Hartford District -
Champs Elims 12/38 (31.6%)
EDIT: With 2 (195, 2170) being captains on their divisions.
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Last edited by bkahl : 01-12-2015 at 14:34.
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