Car Nack Predicts 16-1

[The Lucas]

Originally Posted by plnyyanks

I was curious too, so I whipped up a quick script to find out. Script and full output are available on my GitHub: https://gist.github.com/phil-lopreia...276a608edc7de4

Overall 266 of 435 events were won by top seeds (61.1494252874 percent)
  In 2011, 41 of 62 events were won by top seeds (66.1290322581 percent)
  In 2012, 46 of 73 events were won by top seeds (63.0136986301 percent)
  In 2013, 46 of 81 events were won by top seeds (56.7901234568 percent)
  In 2014, 51 of 102 events were won by top seeds (50.0 percent)
  In 2015, 82 of 117 events were won by top seeds (70.0854700855 percent)

So Car Nack's prediction of <25% would make this year a pretty significant outlier when compared to the past 5.

I made my on bold prediction of <40% #1 seed winners back in '09 and I (along with most of Michigan) pretty much got dominated by HOT (leading to a total of 50% #1 seed winners). I hit my makeup prediction of exactly one #1 seed division winner (again HOT with capt Wildstang and Spartan Robotics, the eventual champions). This is a much bolder prediction, perhaps Car Nack's boldest ever. Major props to him if he is right. I wonder what the biggest contributing factor (extra RPs, lack of depth + serpentine + random match sched, indiv ability ceiling) was to prompt this prediction.

You can find more data for '09 and '08 in my prediction thread. Check out this great Jim Zondag chart for '07-'10.