Opinion Poll: Proliferation of Prefbricated Parts

[techhelpbb]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

What are people afraid of here, really? That we have teams buying their way to a competitive robot? Really? This is the problem with FIRST that keeps you up at night?

Not really. The problem is that when your competitors can get a robot that was designed over years with no respect for the build times with much less investment of their time. You no longer can compete if you fabricate yourself unless you literally also design what you are making over years. Basically you are foolishly following a 'rule' to the letter when your competitors are not really doing so.

So yes this allows other teams to be competitive. In fact it allows them to be more than competitive. It allows them to raise the bar so high that a six week build season is not even relevant any more. That same six week build season we keep telling people is the holy grail of keeping things even.

If this was not actually an issue I bet FIRST would not even exist. It came up often in the early days. Eventually the next goal will not just be to make it COTS. It will be to drive down the cost by any means because that's the only barrier. Then, as you see today already, you'll make the parts anywhere you can get cheap labor and shipping which is making this stuff anywhere but in your neck of the woods for a lot of people in FIRST.

So yes it drives the competition but it erodes a fundamental. Maybe we just don't care about that any more. Maybe some of us are just relics of an old sales pitch. If so that's fine.

The fact that we want to pretend that the only way to address this is to block COTS is as much the issue.
We can also go positive and just reward when the FIRST teams use less COTS as a special case and separate award - and let the competition field decide if the resulting robot is competitive against COTS.
Maybe some years it will be, maybe not, at least as long as the game each year remains secret it will block perfect matches from multi-year COTS builds.
Oh wait the market has recently floated letting the supply side know the game early - how early? Like a year or so ahead?
Surely the suppliers wouldn't build perfect COTS parts for 1 year once they know the game early.
I mean it's not like a very particular drive train element (ahem treads) would just appear at the start of a game that fits it perfectly!
No that would never happen.

Sooner or later this is going to be exactly like FTC before it. Does that actually surprise anyone really considering where FTC fits between FLL and FRC? The only difference will be a larger field and bigger robots.

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by techhelpbb

<snip>
Maybe some years it will be, maybe not, at least as long as the game each year remains secret it will block perfect matches from multi-year COTS builds.
Oh wait the market has recently floated letting the supply side know the game early - how early? Like a year or so ahead?
Surely the suppliers wouldn't build perfect COTS parts for 1 year once they know the game early.
I mean it's not like a very particular drive train element (ahem treads) would just appear at the start of a game that fits it perfectly!
No that would never happen.

<snip>

Two things.

First, some folks at AndyMark definitely have some information about the game before the kickoff. This should be news to exactly zero people who think about what it takes to have AM ready to ship game pieces to us FIRSTers the Monday after a Saturday kickoff.

Second, I think you are suggesting a level of information leak / collusion that is just not justified by the facts. I am quite sure that that tank track product has been in development at AM for years and that this is finally the year that they figured out how to make something that they could stand behind as a product. Andy and Mark have been designing FIRST robots with tank tracks for years, before many of you reading this post were even born. It shouldn't be a surprise that they've been looking for a way to make an AM tank track product.

What is more, I was in NH at the kick off and ran into Andy in the gym on game field. Practically the first think I noticed was that he was worriedly looking at the field and scratching his head, genuinely concerned because he knew that there was no way AndyMark was going to be able to meet the demand for those AM 8" pneumatic wheels yet alone AM's newly announced tank track thingy (Both predictions have been borne out by subsequent events, FWIW). But back to Andy, I am telling you, he's not that good of an actor; I don't think he'd seen that field any sooner than I had.

Bottom line... ...I'm asking you to be careful before you go casting aspersions on some good folk, least of all Andy whom I consider something close to a brother.

Dr. Joe J.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by techhelpbb

Oh wait the market has recently floated letting the supply side know the game early - how early? Like a year or so ahead?
Surely the suppliers wouldn't build perfect COTS parts for 1 year once they know the game early.
I mean it's not like a very particular drive train element (ahem treads) would just appear at the start of a game that fits it perfectly!
No that would never happen.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that the game does not exist a year ahead of time. Please keep the borderline slanderous speculation bottled up.

[techhelpbb]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

I can tell you with 100% certainty that the game does not exist a year ahead of time. Please keep the borderline slanderous speculation bottled up.

Slander implies something criminal.
If you're going to be outraged - be informed about it.
Keep in mind I bought multiple robots from AndyMark <- if I was here to mess with them that's a poor way to do it.

I am implying nothing less than fact.
The AndyMark treads have started shipping just before a game well suited to them.

It may be speculative but it's so unusual that I really have to question the reasons.
So if Andy might explain how this timing occurred I would be interested - as it seems a little off.

Of course this could be the other way around.
Someone at GDC might of heard about the treads and made the game fit.
It would go a long way to explain why AndyMark didn't have enough tires in that case.

Finally there's possibility that someone partially disclosed an element (desired or planned) of the coming game. That it had tough terrain and they just deduced treads might be cool which wouldn't surprise me from experience. One wouldn't need to know exactly what the terrain would look like to deduce the value of treads.

Also before you go around suggesting I am speculating just to start trouble - don't bother.
Bits of information have come back to me over the years during various interactions with FIRST prior to games.
I sit on them because it's my choice to do so.

...

I just read Joe's post.
Okay option 2.

Andy didn't know but someone could have known he was working on that at FIRST.
I really am not looking to mess too much with Andy here again just to make this point:

Anyone vendor that can either influence the game decision (even unknowingly) or get pre-kickoff knowledge of it can deliver polished elements that it is entirely possible a team couldn't build themselves in the 6 weeks before bag and tag.
That would be great vendor business because it would make COTS purchases the only option to compete.

That's why I keep my mouth shut when I find out things early because I don't want that kind of stuff to happen.

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by techhelpbb

<snip>
I am implying nothing less than fact.
The AndyMark treads have started shipping just before a game well suited to them.
<snip>

Come on man, don't kid a kidder. You're implying something untoward was involved, don't be hiding behind "I've never said that" type statements. Your original statements were not merely statements of fact of the kind "A happened, then shortly after that B happened." Own your words.

From your comments it is clear to me at least that you intended the readers to infer that AndyMark had a heads up on the 2016 game and that they then designed a COTS product to exploit that knowledge.

I have been clear on my views: I personally don't believe it.

You on the other hand want to have it both ways. I say, nay to this. Either you say, "yeah, that's what I think." or "I take it back."

I ask you to consider and respond.

Dr. Joe J.

[techhelpbb]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

Come on man, don't kid a kidder. You're implying something untoward was involved, don't be hiding behind "I've never said that" type statements. Your original statements were not merely statements of fact of the kind "A happened, then shortly after that B happened." Own your words.
...
Dr. Joe J.

Yes I -still- am implying something possibly untoward is involved.
That's no secret.
You can imply that it only goes towards Andy if you like but I am not.
His business does potentially stand to gain some nice bank there.

Then again his business also got publicly slammed by a bunch of people on ChiefDelphi for not being able to handle demand.
I posted in his favor then (I can look that up if you like).
It shouldn't surprise anyone that I don't think this COTS thing is panacea when the demand gets a little ugly.

So if you want to continue down there go ahead.
Point at me because the kick off secret is not as secret as you think it is.
What will that get you?
As you said - there are people that know ahead of time what's going on on both sides.
That transparently creates risk.

It can't be denied that more people asked for the disclosure of the game demands to the vendors ahead of time on ChieflDelphi when the COTS supplies were low for the treads and tires.
Releasing that information with consent would only make the cause and effect even more murky.

So which should concern me more...
1. That when we couldn't get our toys fast and cheap this got a little ugly?
2. That we traded the idea you had to be able to fend for yourself for the idea that COTS was limitless?
3. That we openly opened a can of worms by asking for pre-release of the game to only the vendors?
4. That it seems like there was some sharing of information already that allowed a synchronized event to appear?

This is a discussion about COTS. So here's what all that COTS has gotten us.
We should not forget that not all COTS supplies are limitless and now some teams are concerned they can't field a robot.
I won't blame AndyMark for that. Just like I may be making assumptions here - so many of you assumed their supply line was bottomless.