Overview and Analysis of FIRST Stats

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by araniaraniratul

I felt like the intention was to take the differences from the opposing team's average scores? That would make sense and is fairly obvious. Otherwise, I'm fairly lost there too!

Yes, that's the added step that's needed. As mentioned below, look at the equations on p. 15 and p. 19 to see how to do this.

I also like the MMSE adjustment. However, one important point. This is a Bayesian estimation method. The errors terms around initial "guess" is normally distributed (or log normally since scores are constrained at zero), and presumably so are the regression results errors. But adding together 2 normal distributions does not result in a normal distribution. It's been 20 years since I looked at this issue, but there is software out there that correctly computes the resulting distribution.