Predictions Week One: Overlooking the Outerworks

[Looking Forward]

Predictions Week One: Overlooking the Outerworks
First and foremost, sincere apologies for the (very) late post. I realize most of the teams competing this weekend are preparing to unbag their machines currently, and many may miss out on the previews of their events. But an additional week of competition crammed into what little time there is at the beginning of competition season forces some delays. Looking Forward should be back and running full force next week, with the traditional Tuesday post time!

That being said, Palmetto gave us an exciting preview of what's in store for Stronghold last weekend, and week one is looking to build on that momentum. In a strange twist, some of the quirks of the game have already been worked out prior to week one. The surprises of broken cheval de frise, for instance, already have a remedy. The level of play in South Carolina was plenty high, especially in the eliminations, and gave good hints towards both the offensive and defensive potential of this challenge. While the bulk of the scoring originated from defense crossings, a few of the elimination alliances showed the potential of offensive coordination. Expect the defense crossings to continue to be incredibly prominent on the scoresheet in the next couple weeks, but a couple of the better events this weekend should manage more than the four tower captures Palmetto had. For some further interesting analysis that you might not stumble across, consider checking out this post.

More than anything, Palmetto proved one true fact that almost everyone already knew about Stronghold. This is a rough game. Even the best alliances saw their members go dead on the field due to the stress of this game on their machines. While the scoring and ranking systems will reward consistency and excellent play, it's quite possible that the risk of comms reboots, electrical failures, loose connections, and tortugas may lead to some high variance elimination matches, and some notable upsets.

PNW District- Auburn-Mountainview:
Auburn Mountainview has consistently been the strongest event since the introduction of districts in the Pacific Northwest. While it still boasts many of the usual contenders and local powers, all eyes will be watching this preview of Philomath. Five out of the Six previous AMV winners will be returning, along with a quarter of the elimination teams from last year's District Championship. Trying to top a 6 banner season sounds near impossible, but 1983 is looking to do just that. With its 16 motors, and complex design, this "White Knight" had a slow start to the season, but they have new-found programming capabilities this year to make up for it. With fast breach times, and an even faster hang, they should be able to get the points to stay on top of the pack, even without a shooter this weekend. 2522 is trending up after several seasons of growth, and have stepped up their game again this year in preparation for their trip to Hawaii. If their machine functions as well as it looks, they’ll be quite the force this year, especially with their well tuned autonomous. Both 2046 and 3663 ended their 2015 seasons on a high note, playing together at the Championship and reaching their subdivision finals. These two teams have built robots that look to be competitive over the course of the season, but week 1 is a different beast. Bear metal’s week 1 jitters look to be the only thing between them and a solid finish this weekend. CPR will be looking to dial in their camera-assisted shooter. 2557 and 488 are both looking to bounce back from poorer than usual district performances last year. The SOTAbots are going back to their roots with a catapult somewhat reminiscent of their 2014 robot, which should bring them back if it can perform even half as well as that robot. The build season has had its ups and downs for the XBots, who have lost a sheet metal sponsor, but could be the dark horse when eliminations roll around. Few teams have more to prove this weekend than 1318 or 360. After losing key mentors and students, both of these teams have worked hard this season to try and repeat their strong 2015 showings. The PNW has a handful of rookies this year, and the two to watch are competing this weekend. 5803 is looking to come home with more than a Highest Rookie Seed trophy. While they won’t be shooting, their strength may lie in being one of the few local teams to tackle all 9 defenses alone. If their climber is ready in time for the weekend, this rookie may be in for quite the debut performance.

North Carolina District- Guilford:
This event marks the start of districts in North Carolina and is certainly going to be a strange weekend. The local teams will be getting used to the new format, and they have some outside help to show them how it's done. Three of the best teams from Indiana will be making the long drive to Guilford this weekend. 234, 1501, and 5188 are looking to get their machines tuned, their drivers practiced, and prepare for their own districts back home. With a lot of mostly unknown local factors, these teams could very likely end up facing each other in playoffs. The North Carolinian talent will have a chance to begin to show off what they're really capable of. Districts will allow these teams to learn and grow, iterating throughout their season. Case in point, 900 didn't have the strongest start out of the gate at Palmetto, but the Zebracorns are a team well known for their ability to adapt. They were a bit top heavy last weekend, but played some strong defense while working out bugs. If they can get their shooter working, the vision processing should help give them an edge. Shore up their CG issues, and they may have a strong shot come eliminations. Another team likely to be boasting complimentary software features is 2665. In the past the Platypi have shown that they can get an edge through programming, don't be surprised if they show up with a vision-processing solution too. Probably one of the most promising local teams this season has to be 1533. With their "Strange" drivebase of a swerve with a tank strapped on it, they are looking to breach their way to a high seed this weekend. This robot has a lot of utility and should compliment most styles of play come playoffs. 3791 did well without much funding last year, with money in their pockets and a keen eye for strategy, expect them to go even farther. Other local teams to keep an eye out for this weekend, that will likely be above the curve: 1225, 2059, and 2642.

Chesapeake District - Northern Virginia Event:
Haymarket Virginia will christen the new FIRST Chesapeake district with an event in the home of iLite Robotics this weekend. While the hosts team's presence on the playing field will be missed, as they bowed out in favor of focusing their efforts on running the event, there shouldn't be any shortage of talent on the field. Unlike some of the more homogeneous Virginia events later in the season, the NoVA event has some of the best teams from both Virginia and Maryland at the event. 1629, 1731, and 2363 have historically been among the top contenders in the area, and the change to districts isn't likely to slow that down. While all three of Triple Helix, GaCo, and Fresta Valley Robotics should be near the top of the standings, it will be interesting to see how many of the regions middleweights fare in the new district system. The quick turnaround from build season to a week 1 event is hard enough, but the rapid fire match turnarounds can be brutal for teams. Especially so coming off a build season that in a region not prepared for the type of winter weather that hit, which cut into many team's testing and iteration time. That could play into the advantage of teams like 1418, who finished early and had plenty of time to troubleshoot and refine their low goal and scaling specialist machine. Similarly, it could work against 116 and 612, who have often struggled early in the season as they get the kinks worked out of their machines. While fine tuning a machine at early events is a viable strategy in the regional format, losing those points in districts can spell doom for a team's DCMP or CMP hopes. If some of the veterans stumble out of the gate, it could open the door for younger teams like 5338 or 5549 to step up and make a name for themselves in the newly formed Chesapeake district.

New England District- Waterbury:
Waterbury has the potential to be brutal this year, but it will be highly dependent on who shows up the most ready. This is one of the deepest events in New England with a large pack of upper and mid tier teams all looking to prove they have what it takes to take on Stronghold. People often talk about "East Coast Defense" and if there was any District to see how it will be played in 2016, this is the one. Based on Suffield Shakedown it looks like 177 is back in form with a solid drivetrain and a high release catapult. The last time 558 got to build a powerful drivetrain, they brutalized their way to the finals of the NE DCMP, word is they have a derivative of that same drivetrain tucked into their low bar robot. Team 228 put together a tank of a robot this year, and their choice to play it a little more simple then they have in the past should pay off big early in the season. 176 Built one of the few tall robots we've seen so far, with a CD7 intake and a rumored scaling device. The Gaelhawks (230) have a habit of starting the season off on a good foot, and you can expect them to show up ready to run in week 1. 2170 and 2836 both had breakout seasons last year, and rumor has it Beta picked up a long time mentor from 176. 1071 came to scrimmage able to pop shots into the high goal and look promising if they can get it all dialed in. A collection of teams have been building momentum over the past few seasons and one would be smart to keep your eyes on the likes of 236, 999, 1991, 1124, 3525, 3719, 4055, and 4557.

FiM District- Waterford:
Moving earlier on the competition calendar doesn't seem to have put a stop to Waterford being one of the premiere competitions in all of FRC, let alone Michigan. Several of the top teams in FiM will start breaching in week one this season. 33 has quite frequently been the best early season (namely week one) team in Michigan, and aside of a 2009 hiccup that led to a mid-season redesign, they have always done well in games featuring balls. 67 was the team the Killer Bees drew that redesign inspiration from in 2009. With leadership changes for HOT and a "down year" in 2015, it will be interesting to see if see if they are still a team the other 99th percentile competitors will look to emulate. There's little doubt that HOT will still be among the better teams at the event, but the competition will be quite stiff. 1023 has earned their rightful place among the other elite names in Michigan, with several incredible machines in a row, culminating with a win at MSC and trip to Einstein in 2015. Even with "only" one banner (and three silvers) in 2015, 1718 rounds out the top of bill and should be among the top handful of teams at the event. But that strong crop of headliners is backed by a full roster of strong teams, some of which could be among the favorites at other events this weekend. 51, 245, 1189, 2137, 3098, and 4003 make up a strong second tier of machines. Even with half the event sporting numbers over 4000 (yet only three rookies), Waterford could end up being of of the best early season events for not only breaches, but captures. It will be interesting to see how the top seeded captains deal with a thinning draft at the tail end of alliance selection, and if any of the lower ranked teams can emerge as a difference maker on defense.

Greater Toronto Central
Top of the pack - 188, 3683
Swerving over from QC - 3360
Contenders- 781, 1310, 1325, 1511, 2852

Israel:
Level of competition- Swiftly rising in recent years
Leading the younger wave of high powered teams- 3316, 3339
Low bar contender with minimalist wheel usage- 1574
Used all the wheels for their low bar robot- 1690
Historically strong contenders- 1577, 1657, 2630

Lake Superior
Looking for a double DECCer sweep- 359
Trying to bring back the big cheese- 93, 1714
Minnesotan contenders- 1816, 2052, 4539

Northern Lights
Einstein 2015- 2512, 3132
Rising star- 5172
Hoping for some hardware- 876, 2502, 2883, 3313

San Diego:
Annual favorites- 399, 2485
Trying to start the season strong- 2102, 2443, 3255
Aiming to prove 2015 wasn't a fluke- 1572

FiM District - Kettering University #1:
Second or third year competitors - 75% of the field
Younger sleepers- 5084, 5114
Established favorites- 70, 4384
Look to rack up rankings points towards MSC- 1, 1322, 3535, 3656

FiM District- Southfield:
Five+ years of experience - 60% of the teams
Consistent contenders- 548, 573
Best strategy board reveal video- 3322

FiM District- Standish-Sterling:
Trying to repeat 2015's magic- 107
One of the best from the West- 1918
In the mix- 862, 2619
Promising sophomores- 5562, 5712

MAR District- Hatboro-Horsham:
Mid-Atlantic Powerhouses- 1640, 2590
Aiming to contend- 25, 341, 2607, 2016, 2729
Looking to become sophomore standouts- 5407

MAR District- Mount Olive:
Hosts hoping to avoid any issues- 11, 193
Looking to build off of landmark 2015 success- 1403, 1923
Always in the hunt- 303, 222, 1676
Not flashy, but can produce results- 56, 1143, 4285

New England District- Granite State:
Usual Suspects- 78
Change in leadership- 3467
Ready for Action- 131, 5687
Dark Horse- 238

PNW District- West Valley:
PTO Pride - 1595
Kings of the Valley? - 4061, 2147, 4125
Rookie Dark Horse - 5920

[sciencenuetzel]

Favorite post of the week... so excited

[Jim Schaddelee]

Alway look forward to reading your posts, great as always

[Sperkowsky]

Great post!

[notmattlythgoe]

Looking forward to our first District event. I have been waiting years for this.

Looking forward to it. Get it? Get it?

[Richard Wallace]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

... It will be interesting to see how the top seeded captains deal with a thinning draft at the tail end of alliance selection, and if any of the lower ranked teams can emerge as a difference maker on defense. ...

1369 at Palmetto.

From the Manual: "FIRST STRONGHOLD is a medieval tower defender game in which two (2) ALLIANCES of three (3) Teams each select DEFENSES to fortify their OUTER WORKS before competing simultaneously to score points while BREACHING the opponent’s OUTER WORKS and CAPTURING the opponent’s TOWER."

Two strong offensive robots can breach and capture against weak to moderate defense. A third robot with a robust drive train and a smart drive team can prevent the opposition from doing the same, and finish by sprinting to challenge in the final seconds.

At its highest level, Stronghold will be like watching two football games played simultaneously on one field.

[Minc3r_]

Looking forward to seeing how things are going to pan out in Waterford this weekend! Really pumped that it's gonna be such a strong turnout for a week one competition!

[Orihil]

Will we see a game with 200+ points?

I want to belive.. Are you too?

[Nemo]

Did anybody notice that we have a ton of events each week now?

Thanks very much for this preview. Can't wait to see some of the action this weekend.

[jajabinx124]

Originally Posted by Orihil

Will we see a game with 200+ points?

I want to belive.. Are you too?

I don't think so, but that's my guess.

[maxnz]

Originally Posted by Orihil

Will we see a game with 200+ points?

I want to belive.. Are you too?

Probably not until we get further into the season. But, someone might surprise us.

[tickspe15]

Sad to see no mention of the 1318, 1983 alliance(four regular season and three off season wins in two years)

There have been lots of changes on many teams in Washington, I can't wait to see who comes out on top.

[Keefe2471]

Great post as usual. The PNW looks like it's going to be very fun this year. It's great to have a game with so much strategic depth and opportunity to attempt to outthink your opponents.

Also, thanks for pointing out the FiM informer post. It was a great read and something I will be on the lookout for in the future.

[youngace89]

Originally Posted by Orihil

Will we see a game with 200+ points?

I want to belive.. Are you too?

Two robots with a cross and high goal in auto and one with just a cross is 50 points. The eight remaining crosses in teleop are 40 points. Six more high goals is 30 points. Two robots scaling and one challenging is 35 points, and 20 points for a breach and 25 for a capture.

50 + 40 + 30 + 35 + 20 + 25 = 200

Obviously the robots in this match did incredibly well, and this probably wouldn't happen at your average event, but I think that a pairing of elite teams at Champs or some other high-level event could do it.

One other thing that might come into play is fouls. In the quarterfinals at Palmetto, 3824, 1296 and 4533 scored 179 points, helped largely by 35 points in fouls on the opposing alliance. This was almost the hightest score at the event (the 1 seed alliance scored 180 a few matches later), and this alliance never scored anywhere near that high again. If a naturally higher-scoring alliance had received this many foul points, they easily could break 200.

[Ubiquity]

A thoughtful analysis and discussion. I always like to look at the big picture. Just as a first pass I looked at the average qualifier scores from Week 0.5.

Average winning score 74.37209302
Average losing score 49.13953488

Margin: 25.23255814


So I think a good approach to the game would be to answer the following question:

How do we outscore the opposing alliance by 25 points?