Car Nack Predicts 16-1

[lynca]

Originally Posted by plnyyanks

For completeness sake, I ran my script going to back to 2007 (as far back as TBA has ranking data)

So awesome Phil ! Thanks for the statistics

[Richard Wallace]

Through Week 1, Car Nack's 25% prediction is not looking good. 9/17 (52.9%) of #1 seeds have captained winning alliances.

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by Richard Wallace

Through Week 1, Car Nack's 25% prediction is not looking good. 9/17 (52.9%) of #1 seeds have captained winning alliances.

That number is, however, lower than in previous years, especially 2015. I was very surprised by the number of upsets this weekend, and I wonder if Car Nack was onto something, or if Week 1 was a fluke.

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Richard Wallace

Through Week 1, Car Nack's 25% prediction is not looking good. 9/17 (52.9%) of #1 seeds have captained winning alliances.

Using a binomial distribution with n=17 and p = .25, the probability that 9 or more first seeds would win in week 1 is only 1.24%. Unless later week events behave much differently than the early week events, there is currently a better chance of flipping a coin and predicting the outcome correctly 6 times in a row than there is of Car Nack's prediction being correct. Although that has happened, so all hope is not yet lost for this prediction.

[Navid Shafa]

Originally Posted by Bob Steele

I am wondering why the all knowing Car Nack has made this prediction.

I would think that a really good breaching robot will probably place in that position and then choose the best shooter.

???

I don't think this strategy would ever work out...

[JackN]

Anyone have an update on this? I feel like this has been a season where more lower seeded alliances have won.

[dodar]

Originally Posted by JackN

Anyone have an update on this? I feel like this has been a season where more lower seeded alliances have won.

Week 0.5: 1/1
Week 1: 9/17
Week 2: 19/24
Week 3: 12/21

So far, #1 seeds have won 65% of Regionals/Districts.

[plnyyanks]

Originally Posted by dodar

Week 0.5: 1/1
Week 1: 9/17
Week 2: 19/24
Week 3: 12/21

So far, #1 seeds have won 65% of Regionals/Districts.

So far, we're at a higher percentage of events won by #1 than all but 2010, 2011, and 2015.

Originally Posted by plnyyanks

Overall 363 of 628 events were won by top seeds (57.8025477707 percent)
  In 2007, 17 of 41 events were won by top seeds (41.4634146341 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2008, 24 of 45 events were won by top seeds (53.3333333333 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2009, 21 of 44 events were won by top seeds (47.7272727273 percent). 8 events were skipped
  In 2010, 35 of 50 events were won by top seeds (70.0 percent). 5 events were skipped
  In 2011, 41 of 62 events were won by top seeds (66.1290322581 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2012, 46 of 73 events were won by top seeds (63.0136986301 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2013, 46 of 81 events were won by top seeds (56.7901234568 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2014, 51 of 102 events were won by top seeds (50.0 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2015, 82 of 117 events were won by top seeds (70.0854700855 percent). 0 events were skipped

[tr6scott]

Car Nack is a witch.

[Calvin Hartley]

Originally Posted by tr6scott

Car Nack is a witch.

Does Car Nack float?

[dodar]

Originally Posted by Calvin Hartley

Does Car Nack float?

When the 2017 Water Game happens we will find out.

[tindleroot]

Originally Posted by Calvin Hartley

Does Car Nack float?

What really matters is if Car Nack weighs the same as a duck.

[plnyyanks]

Originally Posted by Car Nack

Car Nack predicts that in the regional and district events that the number one seed will have a very difficult time winning the event. In fact the number one seed will win in less than 25% of the events.

Car Nack has spoken.

Looks like Car Nack was a little off on this one. By my script from above...

Overall 446 of 762 events were won by top seeds (58.530183727 percent)
  In 2007, 17 of 41 events were won by top seeds (41.4634146341 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2008, 24 of 45 events were won by top seeds (53.3333333333 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2009, 21 of 44 events were won by top seeds (47.7272727273 percent). 8 events were skipped
  In 2010, 36 of 51 events were won by top seeds (70.5882352941 percent). 4 events were skipped
  In 2011, 41 of 62 events were won by top seeds (66.1290322581 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2012, 46 of 73 events were won by top seeds (63.0136986301 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2013, 46 of 81 events were won by top seeds (56.7901234568 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2014, 51 of 102 events were won by top seeds (50.0 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2015, 82 of 117 events were won by top seeds (70.0854700855 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2016, 82 of 134 events were won by top seeds (61.1940298507 percent). 0 events were skipped

[lynca]

Thanks for crunching the numbers Phil !

What are the statistics for the #1 Alliance at the District Championships and FRC Champs level ?

Sometimes CarNack is wrong. Nonetheless, I will still constantly follow CarNack's predictions !