Is OPR an accurate measurement system?

[Jared Russell]

Robot A is a robot that crosses 10 defenses per match and can therefore score (let's ignore auto for now) 50 points on their own per match.

Let's say that Robot A is far and away the best defense crosser at the event - every other team there can only cross 3 defenses per match on average.

In the matches with Robot A and two other robots, the alliance crosses 10 defenses with tons of time left over, and scores 50 points (plus whatever else during auto, from balls, and from endgame).

In the matches without Robot A, three average robots cross 9 defenses (3 each), and scores 45 points (plus whatever else during auto, from balls, and from endgame).

What are the OPRs of the robots at this event with respect to defenses? If we play infinite matches (and assume there are a lot of teams), we will eventually find that the "average" robot's defense OPR is ~1/3 of their average alliance score, so just north of 15 points (since the score is a bit higher in any matches with Robot A). Robot A, the world's best defense crossing robot, has an OPR of just under 20 (they account for one extra crossing per match)...<5 points higher than the OPR of a robot that is less than 1/3 as capable at this aspect of the game.

This is obviously an oversimplification, but it goes to show that because of the finite number of crossings that can be rewarded per match, excelling at this aspect of the game does not actually get that well rewarded on the scoreboard (and it will be even less rewarded as the season goes on and drivetrains have their kinks ironed out). This of course does not factor in second-order benefits like an exceptional crosser freeing up teammates to score balls, etc.