Predictions Week 3: Catapulting Upwards

[Looking Forward]

Predictions week 3: Catapulting Upwards

Week two saw the continued dominance of strong breaching robots, but the sheer quantity of powerhouse teams playing showed us a glimpse of where Stronghold is headed. As the weeks go on, breaching the defenses will become so commonplace, that it alone may not be enough to ensure a high rank at the end of qualifications. The power of high goal shooting was demonstrated best by the teams at GTRE, Tippecanoe, Long Beach, and CVR. There are certainly fewer "elite" teams competing this weekend, but with teams beginning to take the field for the second time (particularly in districts), high goal shooting should hopefully become slightly more commonplace (at least until defense is applied). More teams with earnest chances of scoring five point boulders may force more alliances to consider defensive tactics.

Stronghold's strategic diversity is being shown best by the difference between how teams go into a qualification match versus an elimination match. Defense in qualifications is small to nonexistent depending on the event, as many teams care more about guaranteeing the extra ranking point from a breach, as opposed to attempting to slow down top offensive robots on the opposing alliance. However eliminations are showing the ever faithful FIRST strategy of two scoring robots and one disrupting/defense robot is back. Several upsets have been happening as teams who were boulder scoring juggernauts are no longer getting access to their sweet spots and can't score under pressure. This strategy is far from universal, but as more alliances become capable of securing both a breach and capture with only two robots, the frequency of its use should rise.

Central Illinois:
Entering its third season, the Central Illinois regional has quickly become a staple even for some of the best teams in the Midwest. The Stronghold edition of the event features a must-see roster of teams. A couple of Illinois legends in 111 and 1625 will be debuting at the event. Both machines are quickly recognizable and stick to the design philosophies that helped turn these teams into household names. Defending champs 1756, 2481, and 2220 are also among those unbagging their machines for the first time. Argos and the Roboteers will assuredly be among the top handful of teams at the event once again. Blue Twilight will face a more difficult path to victory, but their novel drivetrain approach is sure to draw the attention of teams and judges alike. 2220 isn't the only team challenging FRC drivetrain conventions, as 4143 will be trying out their tracked swerve drive in competition for the first time this season. MARS/WARS is hoping that "twerve" drive will be able to extend their finals streak at CIR to three seasons (and preferably come home with gold this time).

While most of the field will be competing for the first time this season, Northern Lights semi-finalists 876 has already proven themselves to be an effective 5 point scoring machine from the batter, even if their scale sometimes leaves doubts regarding its G18 legality. Thunder Robotics is also the flag bearer for trying to sneak a banner out of Illinois, but they will have some help from the previously mentioned 2220 (Minnesota), 1732 (Wisconsin), and 2169 (Minnesota).

Tech Valley Regional:
The Tech Valley Regional has attracted a lot of talent from out of state, and even international teams. 359 is walking into TVR hot off a regional win in Duluth. Their catapult, autonomous scoring potential, and experience make them a heavy favorite to win this event. 5254, generated a lot of H.Y.P.E. after last seasons successes during by revealing a fully functional robot in week 3. Their preparedness and extra time for iteration will result in a strong showing this weekend. 2791 is debuting at TVR with a similar design to 5254, and boasts a 20 point autonomous mode. If they demonstrate this consistently it could give them an edge. 3990 are returning to Troy looking to improve on their Finalist finish in 2014. Their accurate batter shot and hanging mechanism show a lot of promise. The local powerhouse, 20, has been dominant recently in CNY recently, including an Einstein appearance last year. Their ability to accurately shoot high goals from a variety of positions should make them one of the best teams at the event as long as they can elude strong defensive robot. Talking about defense, 48 has a reputation for have a sturdy drive base and skilled drivers that can shut down offense. Delphi E.L.I.T.E. played well at Pittsburgh, but will need to improve their shooting under duress in order to make a big impact. 3419 is coming off of a strong Finalist appearance in NYC last weekend as the primary scorer for their alliance.

The floor has been raised at Tech Valley in the past year and with it the level of play that will make the competition intense. Looking to make an impact include host of middle tier teams including 229, 3003, 3044, 4481, and 5236.

NE District- UMass-Dartmouth:
UMass-Dartmouth hosts the only New England district this week with a strong combination of perennial contenders and teams that already have a week under their belt. 50% of the teams at UMass-Dartmouth will be competing for a second time, and you can expect the likes of 78, 88, 230 , and 246 to have upped their game. Air Strike made a strong run to the finals up at the Granite State District where they lost after three hard fought matches to 88 TJ(Squared), expect them both to show up with upgrades and hot in pursuit of a blue banner. Despite having a very accurate catapult and a capable drivetrain, 230 was ousted in the semifinals of Waterbury and are rumored to be developing a scaling device. 246 is looking to turn last year's strong showing at their second second event into a pattern. Overclocked struggled at North Shore last weekend, but put on a show of force in the semifinals on the only alliance to take the champions to 3 matches.

Don't count the other half of the field out, however. 195, arguably one of the top 3 teams in NE, makes their Stronghold debut this week, and the Cyberknights are coming in with a high release catapult and pulling from their design archives to run tank treads again for the first time since 2006. 1124 will also be running tracks this year, hoping to fill the high goal with their tall shooter. 5112 is a young team, but with a Rookie All Star and and EI already under their belt they may be one of the dark horses at this event. Along with the Gongoliers, team 5494 Bizarbot Robotics collected a bunch of Rookie awards last year, got their first taste of playing in eliminations, and are planning on returning to the table.

Qualification matches are still being dominated by those teams which are able to take care of the breach early and work towards taking down the tower. Many high goal shooters have abandoned their primary design goal to cycle faster and grab those qualification points. The center field starvation is in full effect but we may not have yet seen the best of the defense that New England is so fondly known for. Expect UMass-Dartmouth to step it up a notch in New England with high goal shooting and more aggressive defense being significant components in the playoffs. The announcing crew of Karthik and Paul Copioli will certainly have plenty of action to keep tabs on.

IN District- Walker Warren:
As the smallest district, Indiana only has three pre-DCMP events. Walker Warren is the second of those, and with all three events falling three consecutive weeks, every single team at this event will be competing in either the first or second weekend of a back-to-back schedule. That type of schedule is always taxing on teams, but if the level of play from Tippecanoe is any indicator (75% breach rate in qualifications), the teams in the Indiana district can handle it. Leading the charge are two of the best high goal machines anywhere so far this season, 1024 and 1747. Kil-A-Bytes and HBR ranked 1st and 2nd respectively at Tippecanoe, and paired up to storm the elimination rounds, with an average score of 150.7 points in the eliminations and twice topping 180 points. Further still, those scores came without the aid of category C crosses and only once being awarded scale points (via foul). Both teams are looking to improve (including 1747 trying to change that scaling story), but the depth and high quality of play in Indiana is sure to present them challenges.

A number of competitors will be looking to up their games to improve their results from previous events. 292 and 868 were both alliance captains at Tippecanoe, but neither got beyond the quarter-finals. 3940 is the only member of the finalist alliance in Tippecanoe (which took a match off the vaunted #1 alliance) that's competing in Indianapolis this weekend. While their alliance captains from last week (1701) went back to Michigan, a couple different Michigan teams (74, 2771) will be looking for some practice in Indy to open their season. Cyber Blue (234) learned some lessons in their week one trip to North Carolina, and will apply those in an effort to improve upon an effort a 5th seeded effort in Guilford county. Add in debuts from PhyXTGears (1720), The Beatty Beast (71) and the Last Crusaders (3947) and you have the recipe for a strong and balanced field behind the favorites. Ultimately, it may be easier to split up Harrison Boiler Robotics and the Kil-A-Bytes than stop them paired together. But the well balanced and highly competitive Indiana events are always a thrill to watch, and have some of the best qualification matches you'll find before the district championships of weeks 6 and 7.

Australia:
Number of countries represented- Six
Rookies- Nearly 50% of teams
Sophomore season, freshman on Team IFI- 4613
Defending champs- 4253
Already has a CMP ticket locked up- 3132

Bayou:
Back to Back Regional Wins? - 233
Breaching Machine - 4063
Super sleek rookies - 5829
Bagged 2 Robots - 456
Practice day building- 3847
Rock City Finalists- 3039

Buckeye:
Slipping away from districts- 27, 217, 303, 1676
New York invasion- 263, 639, 870, 3171
Aiming to keep hardware in Ohio- 120, 379, 2252
Brightly colored contender- 4039
Jet black contender- 706

Utah:
San Diego champs- 3021
Alamo alliance captains- 1477, 2468
Utah favorites- 3230, 3245
Defending champs trying to avoid a slow start- 4334

CHS District- Hampton Roads:
Gunning for banner #2- 1885, 2363
Can't be contained (by the field)- 449
Building off of solid performances in Blacksburg- 1262, 1610

CHS District- Northern Maryland:
How will the district system impact these vets at their 2nd outing?- 888, 1111, 1719, 1895
Getting points for a CMP bid (hopefully with no stolen robots)- 5338
Rising contender- 4945

FIM District- Midland:
Already have gold in Stronghold - 5166
Promising teams looking to improve on semifinal exits - 3618, 5114, 3770
Rookie team that has already made some noise - 6193
Looking for a bounce back year in Stronghold - 4819
Always in the mix - 226, 703

FIM District- Escanaba:
Defending Champs Returning - 0
Defending State and Carson Division Champs - 1711
Hometown team with a great performance already - 3602
The Original U.P. Team with multiple silvers - 857
Multiple district titles under their belt - 2586

FIM District- Center Line:
Big names making their debut - 503, 910
Looking for much better Second events - 3098, 1189
Always in the hunt- 123, 245, 280, 815
Strong performance, but no FiM points, in Indiana last week- 1701

MAR District- Seneca:
MAR powerhouses hoping to hit the high goal more often- 1640, 2590
Looking to start their season on the right foot- 316, 365, 869, 1089
High powered rookies- 6203, 6226

MAR District- Springside Chestnut Hill:
Trying to win 4 years in a row- 225
Effective week 1 breachers- 193, 219, 1391, 4454
Gunning high- 11, 1218
Low bots, high aspirations after qualifying for CMP in 2015- 3974, 4373

NC District- UNC Ashville:
Trying to rebound after a QF upset- 1533, 3845
Getting some out of district reps- 238, 422
Already on their 3rd event- 4935
Guilford champs- 3506, 4290
Racking up district points- 2655, 3971

PCH District- Dalton:
Breaching to the top- 2974, 5004
Looking to low goal to victory- 1771
Wild Cards- 4189, 832

PCH District- Albany:
Best low goaler in the state when there's comms- 1648
Jack of most trades- 4188, 1261
Wild Cards- 1002, 4026
Brave little toaster with great drivers- 6177

PNW District- Central Washington University:
1: Win AMV, 2: Add a Shooter, 3: Win Central? - 1983
Scaling up the ranks- 488, 2557, 4450
Contenders- 1318, 1595, 2147, 2930, 4061, 4980
Rookie Powers- 5803, 5920

PNW District- Mount Vernon:
Shooting for another win- 3238, 3663
Debut- 492,948
Finalists hungry for more- 3826,4911
Contenders- 1294, 2907, 2928, 3574

[jajabinx124]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

Australia:
Number of countries represented- Six
Rookies- Nearly 50% of teams
Sophomore season, freshman on Team IFI- 4613
Defending champs- 4253
Already has a CMP ticket locked up- 3132

Fixed.

[JesseK]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

CHS District- Hampton Roads:
Can't be contained (by the field)- 449

Best Mention Ever.

(It's funny now because no one got hurt and it wasn't 449's fault...)

[Dezion]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

Predictions week 3: Catapulting Upwards
NC District- UNC Ashville:
Trying to rebound after a QF upset- 1533, 3845
Getting some out of district reps- 238, 422
Already on their 3rd event- 4935
Guilford champs- 3506, 4290

On a district level, this event will be really interesting. 3506, Yeti; 4290, Bots Of War; and 4935, T-Rex (Rawr) have already won a district event. As well, 2059 were finalists at Wake County. It will be interesting to see how these teams perform against 238 and 422. With high goals shooters becoming more important and desired, it will be interesting to see how these robots perform. 2655 has a huge chance to overtake many teams in district points with a Finals appearance. 5679 lost to 2059 and 4290 in the Semi-finals, however have the opportunity to prove themselves as a strong, quick breaching robot. If 1533's shooter is accurate, they may become one of the most desired teams at this event. With the Queen City Robotics Alliance already bringing four blue banners (lets get three more?) in two events, they'll be a strong alliance to watch out for.

And yes, so far T-Rex has played 34 matches.

[Kevin Leonard]

I'm H.Y.P.E'd to see TVR got a full write-up(and a terrible pun) this year! I don't think many people even realized how many strong teams are going to be at TVR this weekend.

Good luck to all the teams competing!

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

CHS District- Hampton Roads:
Gunning for banner #2- 1885, 2363
Can't be contained (by the field)- 449
Building off of solid performances in Blacksburg- 1262, 1610

Wanted to expand on this one a bit if I may. All data is coming from descriptive statistics I've been developing over the last couple years. It's based on match results from the last decade of FRC events. [1]

Hampton Roads is looking like one of the most top heavy events in FRC this year (and potentially of all time) Of the 34 teams in attendance, over half (18) have NEVER played in the elimination tournament. There are 7 rookies and 1 new team that I assume is a split, so, doing math that would make PayneTrain proud, that means there are 10 teams that have consistently missed eliminations, at least SOME of them are going to be breaking that streak this weekend.






[1] It seems to be a fairly decent LF predictor actually...

[wilsonmw04]

Can't be contained (by the field)- 449

Link is set to Private.

[PayneTrain]

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber

Wanted to expand on this one a bit if I may. All data is coming from descriptive statistics I've been developing over the last couple years. It's based on match results from the last decade of FRC events. [1]

Hampton Roads is looking like one of the most top heavy events in FRC this year (and potentially of all time) Of the 34 teams in attendance, over half (18) have NEVER played in the elimination tournament. There are 7 rookies and 1 new team that I assume is a split, so, doing math that would make PayneTrain proud, that means there are 10 teams that have consistently missed eliminations, at least SOME of them are going to be breaking that streak this weekend.






[1] It seems to be a fairly decent LF predictor actually...

CHS events are like playing a knockoff of Ontario Regional Simulator that forgot to copy the files for teams that are good enough to carry bad matches.

[SpaceBiz]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

CHS events are like playing a knockoff of Ontario Regional Simulator that forgot to copy the files for teams that are good enough to carry bad matches.

1418 won a match and got a breach with basically no one else on their alliance scoring

[PayneTrain]

Originally Posted by SpaceBiz

1418 won a match and got a breach with basically no one else on their alliance scoring

You see that as carrying a bad alliance; I see that as a necessary ability to even scrape the top 25% magnified by really bad partners or other circumstances.

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

You see that as carrying a bad alliance; I see that as a necessary ability to even scrape the top 25% magnified by really bad partners or other circumstances.

#feelthepayne
#WilPayne2k16

[Mitchb705]

Originally Posted by Dezion

With the Queen City Robotics Alliance already bringing four blue banners (lets get three more?) in two events, they'll be a strong alliance to watch out for.

I agree. Unfortunately, I believe that all three of these great teams will never be able to be on the same alliance due to the high probability of all of them being alliance captains. However this year anything could happen. Looking forward to competing with all the teams this week in Asheville.

[Tmeziere]

Utah:
San Diego champs- 3021
Alamo alliance captains- 1477, 2468
Utah favorites- 3230, 3245
Defending champs trying to avoid a slow start- 4334

#westcoastisthebestcoast
#spreadingcaliforniaboarders
#calicoastisthebestcoast

[BJT]

While most of the field will be competing for the first time this season, Northern Lights semi-finalists 876 has already proven themselves to be an effective 5 point scoring machine from the batter, even if their scale sometimes leaves doubts regarding its G18 legality.

Thanks For the mention, but I wouldn't be so generous about our scale when it malfunctions it definitely runs afoul of G18 We are aware of it and have a plan.

[WCBC]

No Best Coast Event spotlights? What's happening to Looking Forward??