PNW District Championship Projections

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0

That's too bad about 3831. Looking at results manually it seems they were indeed a no-show at their second event too so I guess they're toast.

Interestingly, there are way more teams this year that are actually playing both of their events in the last two weeks. That makes projecting the lineup a little more challenging than usual.

Yes unfortunately 3831 didn't show up at CWU or AMV. They were no shows last year as well.

The reason that so many more teams are not playing their first match until week 4 is the fact that the OR events are weeks 2,4,5 this year and last year they were 1,3,5. So most of the teams that haven't played yet are from OR. With the switch to 4 W. WA events instead of 5 and the E. WA events moving to weeks 1,3 instead of 2,4 that means more of the WA teams have played both of their events by week 3.

[InFlight]

The Easter weekend, and just the single event this week might be another factor pushing a lot of teams into the last weekend.

[AaronSchmitz]

Chairman's still automatically advances, right? So that would bring 2557 (~in), 4125 (~in), 1540 (~in), and 3574 (~bubble) to in along with 4911 and 1983 which are already in.

[SoftwareBug2.0]

Originally Posted by AaronSchmitz

Chairman's still automatically advances, right? So that would bring 2557 (~in), 4125 (~in), 1540 (~in), and 3574 (~bubble) to in along with 4911 and 1983 which are already in.

Correct.

[Ian Curtis]

How many points does it think the cutoff will be? Has it done a decent job at predicting the points required in previous seasons? I think it was 64 last year & 58 the year before when the dust settled (some declines maybe?). If that benchmark is holding about true, it's probably useful for teams to set their goals & expectations as things move forward.

Thanks for doing this!

[SoftwareBug2.0]

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis

How many points does it think the cutoff will be? Has it done a decent job at predicting the points required in previous seasons? I think it was 64 last year & 58 the year before when the dust settled (some declines maybe?). If that benchmark is holding about true, it's probably useful for teams to set their goals & expectations as things move forward.

Thanks for doing this!

Here's what the results looked like:

2015:
2 weeks out: 62
1 week out: 62
Actual: 64

2014:
2 weeks out: 56
1 week out: 55
Actual: 58

It's a small sample size but it does seem to be a little bit biased toward making low estimates.

[SoftwareBug2.0]

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis

How many points does it think the cutoff will be? Has it done a decent job at predicting the points required in previous seasons? I think it was 64 last year & 58 the year before when the dust settled (some declines maybe?). If that benchmark is holding about true, it's probably useful for teams to set their goals & expectations as things move forward.

Thanks for doing this!

And I forgot to add: it's already listing what it thinks that the cutoff might be:

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 37
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 97
Best estimate: 52

[Navid Shafa]

Thanks for doing this again Eric!

[Nuttyman54]

Good stuff, Eric!

I'm curious about some of the details of your methodology that I didn't see in your previous posts. Are you taking into account dead points from 3rd plays and un-winnable awards? For example, as far as I can tell, Philomath won't be giving out a Rookie All-Star award, so those 8 points are guaranteed gone from the district.

[SoftwareBug2.0]

Originally Posted by Nuttyman54

Good stuff, Eric!

I'm curious about some of the details of your methodology that I didn't see in your previous posts. Are you taking into account dead points from 3rd plays and un-winnable awards? For example, as far as I can tell, Philomath won't be giving out a Rookie All-Star award, so those 8 points are guaranteed gone from the district.

The methodology is based only on how many total points teams have earned at different events. It takes no other data whatsoever into account.

Here's the basic idea:
-If you've only played one event it estimates an upper bound for points earned at your second as the best that any team has done at an event when one of them was equal to or worse than your first event.
-Similarly, it guesses a lower bound for points based on the worst a team has done that has had an event that's at least as good as your first

After it has ranges for each team, it uses those to create ranges that the point cutoff could be. Then for each team, it compares their range to where the point cutoff could be.

So it doesn't explicitly take into account how many points there are left. However having lots of plays left will change the estimate of where the cuttoff will be by making the bounds wider. So for example, a team might go from listed as "~in" to "in" without a change in either the number of points they've earned or the best guess of where the cutoff will be just because more teams have played events.

So for this year there are two things that are really a big deal as far as trying to get an accurate result:

-There are so many teams that haven't played any event yet. At the moment, teams that haven't played at all are assumed to be exactly average, which obviously wrong. In past years there's only been maybe 1 team that didn't play till the last two weeks, so this didn't really matter.

-The official ranking page's event results are known to be wrong. They haven't fixed they issue about how they account for ties properly. They just give a bonus to the team's overall total rather than correcting the event score. See here: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...hreadid=146151. This throws off the estimates because the system is based on comparing event results.

[SoftwareBug2.0]

With just one week left, it's time for an updated set of projections:

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 41
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 92
Best estimate: 54
{'bubble': 44, 'out': 37, '~in': 37, '~out': 27, 'in': 13}
0       in      1983 - Skunk Works Robotics 
1       in      2522 - Royal Robotics 
2       in      3238 - Cyborg Ferrets 
3       in      4061 - SciBorgs 
4       in      2046 - Bear Metal 
5       in      4911 - CyberKnights 
6       in      4488 - Shockwave 
7       in      5920 - VIKotics 
8       in      3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics 
9       in      2147 - CHUCK 
10      in      3711 - Iron Mustang 
11      in      4205 - ROBOCUBS 
12      in      2928 - Viking Robotics 
13      ~in     2557 - SOTAbots 
14      ~in     3826 - Sequim Robotics Federation "SR... 
15      ~in     2930 - Sonic Squirrels 
16      ~in     4726 - Robo Dynasty 
17      ~in     4980 - Canine Crusaders 
18      ~in     2990 - Hotwire 
19      ~in     1425 - Error Code Xero 
20      ~in     955 - CV Robotics 
21      ~in     1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society 
22      ~in     4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation 
23      ~in     1778 - Chill Out 
24      ~in     1595 - The Dragons 
25      ~in     753 - High Desert Droids 
26      ~in     5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine... 
27      ~in     4915 - Spartronics 
28      ~in     5085 - LakerBots 
29      ~in     3223 - Retrobotics 
30      ~in     2811 - StormBots 
31      ~in     4077 - M*A*S*H 
32      ~in     2907 - Lion Robotics 
33      ~in     3574 - HIGH TEKERZ 
34      ~in     1258 - SeaBot 
35      ~in     4125 - Confidential 
36      ~in     5942 - Warriors 
37      ~in     2149 - CV Bearbots 
38      ~in     4089 - Stealth Robotics 
39      ~in     5827 - Code Purple 
40      ~in     5803 - Apex Robotics 
41      ~in     997 - Spartan Robotics 
42      ~in     2944 - Titanium Tigers 
43      ~in     1510 - Wildcats 
44      ~in     2471 - Team Mean Machine 
45      ~in     5495 - Aluminati 
46      ~in     5588 - Holy Names Academy 
47      ~in     949 - Wolverine Robotics 
48      bubble  2926 - Robo Sparks 
49      ~out    4513 - Circuit Breakers 
50      ~out    4495 - Tigers 
51      ~out    1294 - Top Gun 
52      ~in     1540 - Flaming Chickens 
53      ~out    4682 - BraveBots 
54      ~in     3786 - Chargers 
55      out     6129 - Shadle Park 
56      ~out    2923 - Aggies 
57      bubble  5468 - Retro-bots 
58      bubble  5975 - Beta Blues 
59      bubble  5937 - MI-Robotics 
60      bubble  2910 - Jack in the Bot 
61      ~out    4173 - Bulldogs 
62      ~out    4180 - Iron Riders 
63      bubble  4131 - Iron Patriots 
64      out     3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob... 
65      out     2521 - SERT 
66      out     847 - PHRED 
67      out     2903 - NeoBots 
68      out     3712 - RoboCats 
69      out     4608 - Duct Tape Warriors 
70      bubble  3393 - Horns of Havoc 
71      bubble  3024 - My Favorite Team 
72      out     4683 - Full-metal Robotics 
73      out     3070 - Team Pronto 
74      bubble  4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In... 
75      out     4120 - Jagwires 
76      out     3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem 
77      out     4512 - BEARbots 
78      out     3812 - Bits & Bots 
79      out     2148 - Mechaknights 
80      out     568 - Nerds of the North 
81      out     488 - Team XBot 
82      out     4030 - NullPointerException 
83      bubble  3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls 
84      bubble  2374 - Crusader Bots 
85      out     492 - Titan Robotics Club 
86      bubble  4692 - Metal Mallards 
87      bubble  2411 - Rebel @lliance 
88      out     2976 - Spartabots 
89      bubble  3674 - 4-H Clover Bots 
90      bubble  2412 - Robototes 
91      bubble  4057 - STEAMPUNK - Klamath Basin Robo... 
92      bubble  2733 - Pigmice 
93      bubble  3221 - KM Royals 
94      out     6076 - Mustangs 
95      out     5198 - Knight Tech 
96      bubble  5970 - BeaverTronics 
97      bubble  4309 - 4-H Botsmiths 
98      out     2605 - Sehome Seamonsters 
99      bubble  4051 - Sabin-Sharks 
100     bubble  4043 - NerdHerd 
101     out     4082 - Ranching Robots 
102     bubble  360 - The Revolution 
103     bubble  4662 - Byte Sized Robotics 
104     bubble  5941 - SPQL 
105     bubble  3787 - Wild Robotocats 
106     bubble  5956 - Falcons 
107     bubble  1432 - Metal Beavers 
108     bubble  948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group) 
109     out     3693 - GearHead Pirates 
110     bubble  1359 - Scalawags 
111     bubble  3588 - the Talon 
112     bubble  2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics 
113     bubble  4132 - Scotbots 
114     out     3268 - Vahallabots 
115     bubble  4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS 
116     out     3789 - On Track Robotics 
117     bubble  2635 - Lake Monsters 
118     bubble  2002 - Tualatin Robotics 
119     bubble  3684 - Electric Eagles 
120     bubble  2550 - Skynet 
121     out     3681 - Robo-Raiders 
122     out     1899 - Saints Robotics 
123     bubble  4681 - Murphy's law 
124     bubble  5683 - RAVE 
125     out     3192 - Tiger Bytes 
126     out     4918 - The Roboctopi 
127     out     4104 - Blackhawks 
128     ~out    5977 - Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC 
129     out     4127 - LoggerBots 
130     bubble  3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics 
131     out     3575 - OK Aggies 
132     ~out    5939 - Lakes Lancers 
133     bubble  4654 - Mountaineers 
134     out     957 - SWARM 
135     bubble  2927 - Pi Rho Techs 
136     bubble  3219 - TREAD 
137     ~out    4060 - S.W.A.G. 
138     ~out    2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats 
139     ~out    4461 - Ramen 
140     ~out    3237 - Bionic Braves 
141     out     3876 - Mabton LugNutz 
142     out     5111 - SaxonBots 
143     ~out    5748 - Octo π Rates 
144     ~out    3049 - BremerTron 
145     ~out    2929 - JAGBOTS 
146     ~out    3218 - Panther Robotics 
147     out     2660 - Pengbots 
148     ~out    3636 - Generals 
149     ~out    1571 - CALibrate Robotics 
150     ~out    5295 - Aldernating Current 
151     ~out    2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium 
152     ~out    2555 - RoboRams 
153     ~out    2942 - Panda ER 
154     ~out    4579 - RoboEagles 
155     ~out    3131 - Gladiators 
156     ~out    3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio... 
157     ~out    3831 - Da Bears

Note that the official district ranking system still contains manual point adjustments which are not reflected in this calculation.

[InFlight]

Too hard even guess now, we will have to wait for Oregon City and Auburn to finish. There's a lot of traditionally strong teams that need a good performance in week 5 to return to the district championships.

Team 1510 Wildcats won the Philomath Chairman Award and are officially "in".

[Ian Curtis]

Originally Posted by InFlight

Too hard even guess now, we will have to wait for Oregon City and Auburn to finish. There's a lot of traditionally strong teams that need a good performance in week 5 to return to the district championships.

Team 1510 Wildcats won the Philomath Chairman Award and are officially "in".

I agree that some traditionally strong teams have had an off year, but Eric's method of estimating which teams will advance has a pretty solid track record (especially with only 1 week & 2 events left).

Look at his postmortems from 2015 & 2014.

[Navid Shafa]

Originally Posted by InFlight

Too hard even guess now, we will have to wait for Oregon City and Auburn to finish. There's a lot of traditionally strong teams that need a good performance in week 5 to return to the district championships.

Team 1510 Wildcats won the Philomath Chairman Award and are officially "in".

I wouldn't worry. With 69 points, 3574 is a lock for DCMP. It would have been enough last year too, even with one more event in the district.

[Maria S]

Final rankings are up!