CHS Platter - Week Four - Cheesy Centers

[CHS Platter]

District Championship Points Predictions

CHS Platter has determined with a high degree of certainty that 54 points is the likely minimum to be invited to the District Championship. 58 slots are available, with 7 going to District Chairman's teams.

Pre-Qualified teams based on DCA:
116 - Epsilon Delta
1086 - Blue Cheese
1885 - ILITE Robotics
2363 - Triple Helix
4945 - Titanium-Wrecks

Predicted DCA teams:
Central MD: 1629 - Garrett Coalition (GaCo)
Central VA: 384 - Sparky 384

Methodologies:
This leaves 51 points-based positions up for grabs. Many teams have already hit this mark. But many teams will qualify based on the performances from this weekend.

We've created and tested three models of the CHS District points structure, with all calculations producing very close results.
1. We awarded a flat number of district ranking points to teams that have not yet played their second event. The number of points is chosen to be approximately equal to the average amount of points scored by all district teams in their first event. This straightforward simulation predicts the DCMP point cutoff will be approximately 53 points.
2. Similar to model 1, but we awarded a variable number of district ranking points to teams that have not yet played their second event. The shape of the point distribution was averaged from the outcomes of the previous 5 CHS events. We assigned points to teams based on a random guess about their performance in week 4 events. This simulation predicts cutoff at approximately 54 points.
3. Similar to model 2, but we assigned these points to the week 4 teams based on CHS Platter predictions about how these teams will perform. CHS Platter predictions are informed by a rich mixture of numerical and subjective data gathered over the previous 3 weeks of competition. This simulation predicts cutoff at approximately 55 points.

Predicted to qualify:

Current Points	Team
47		623 - Cougar Robotics
53		5279 - Bionic Eagles
35		401 - Copperhead Robotics
48		1389 - The Body Electric
40		422 - Mech Tech Dragons
35		612 - Chantilly Robotics
41		1137 - Rocket Sauce
31		2528 - RoboDoves
38		339 - Kilroy Robotics
32		4505 - McDonogh Eagle Robotics
40		977 - Cometbots
30		2199 - Robo-Lions
14		3939 - Robotic Knights
30		2912 - Panthers
32		5936 - TigerBots

On the bubble:

Current Points	Team
25		2028 - Phantom Mentalist
17		2914 - TIGER PRIDE
26		2377 - C Company
39		2421 - RTR Team Robotics
26		1829 - Carbonauts
25		540 - TALON 540 Godwin Robotics
54		1895 - Lambda Corps
54		5841 - The Patriots
53		5954 - Portable Chargers
34		4514 - Calvert STEAM Works

[SteveGPage]

Originally Posted by CHS Platter

District Championship Points Predictions

CHS Platter has determined with a high degree of certainty that 54 points is the likely minimum to be invited to the District Championship. 58 slots are available, with 7 going to District Chairman's teams.

I ran a similar analysis yesterday and came to the same conclusion. Figuring 52 - 55 would be the point range needed to qualify. It really depends on how the final point values get grouped up in that range. Lastly, it also depends on how many teams decline to move on to District Champs. I've already spoken to some teams on the bubble who don't know if they would be able to get the additional funding for the registration and travel costs. I could see teams at around 50 district points ultimately getting an invite.

[Crebb]

I'm interested to see what changes and improvements teams have done since their first competitions. I've heard some rumblings of new hanging mechanisms.

[1629GaCo]

It is a pleasure to get mentioned in these posts!! Team 1629 is ready to take on the competition with new and old friends!! Good luck this weekend!

[bearbot]

So interested into seeing how these last 2 district events play out. I bet teams are going to be scaling the tower more this week trying to gain a spot into the District Championship. We almost had our climber operational during the elimination rounds but ultimately ended up running out of time. Hope to have it up at running at the District Championship if we make it .

[PayneTrain]

38 teams are registered to be at VADOS, as far as I can tell 16 of the 38 teams have not played in elimination rounds this season.

[notmattlythgoe]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

38 teams are registered to be at VADOS, as far as I can tell 16 of the 38 teams have not played in elimination rounds this season.

Doswell is going to be interesting this weekend. There is a very shallow top end with a very heavy middle. Team performances have been all over the place so far this season.

[PayneTrain]

Originally Posted by notmattlythgoe

Doswell is going to be interesting this weekend. There is a very shallow top end with a very heavy middle. Team performances have been all over the place so far this season.

Doswell is also full of teams that will doubtlessly make obvious changes of varying magnitudes or sneak in additional fixes.

Also, a note on 346:

-Shoots in the high goal
-Shoots in the low goal
-When it can't shoot, it decides to go ahead and D up the best shooter in the district and cripples them to an early exit

Also, 836 is a team that usually wins a Chairman's Award at their first event; their loss to 1885 was probably close to a tossup since they are both great programs. 1629 historically has needed programs like 836 to get off the board before they can win Chairman's, so I'd consider them for that banner over 1629, who also has racked up more EI awards than 540 has.

[1629GaCo]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

1629 historically has needed programs like 836 to get off the board before they can win Chairman's, so I'd consider them for that banner over 1629, who also has racked up more EI awards than 540 has.

I find this statement interesting!

[SteveGPage]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

Also, 836 is a team that usually wins a Chairman's Award at their first event; their loss to 1885 was probably close to a tossup since they are both great programs. 1629 historically has needed programs like 836 to get off the board before they can win Chairman's, so I'd consider them for that banner over 1629, who also has racked up more EI awards than 540 has.

Thank you for your kind words about our Chairman's program. 1885 and 1629 have great programs, are are definitely District and Championship level Chairman's teams. This has been a huge transition year for us, moving from being a school based and hosted program, to a completely private, community based, non-profit organization. This past year, we have spent significant time, resources and money to acquire a large warehouse to house our new STEM Center. In doing so, we have not added as much new to our program this year as in previous years - but have created the foundation to significantly add to our program in the coming years. It is an honor to be compared favorably to our good friends 1885 and 1629.

Steve

[1629GaCo]

1629 cannot wait to play with the Bees!!

[SteveGPage]

Originally Posted by 1629GaCo

1629 cannot wait to play with the Bees!!

We feel the same!!

[staplemonx]

1389 is going all high goal all the time. The goal will be 4 high goals per match by the end of qualifiers. Our hanger is not ready yet, so you should expect to see that in 3 weeks at the dist champs.

[JesseK]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

Also, 836 is a team that usually wins a Chairman's Award at their first event; their loss to 1885 was probably close to a tossup since they are both great programs. 1629 historically has needed programs like 836 to get off the board before they can win Chairman's, so I'd consider them for that banner over 1629, who also has racked up more EI awards than 540 has.

I find the speculation around CA quite awkward, regardless of the teams involved. It will drive you nuts trying to figure out 'why so and so won' or even 'why did we win over so and so'.

There are a lot of good programs in the region, especially when we get to know the context of what is happening behind the scenes on a given team by actually listening to their stories.

We too feel honored to be long-time friends with GaCo and the RoboBees. We look forward to seeing you guys at DCMPS!

Edit - BY THE WAY
Doswell needs more refs. If you want to ref, know the rules and feel you can pass the ref test, contact Sally and she'll put you in touch with Janet. If there aren't any 'extra' refs for the current refs to rotate out, expect a few missed calls/etc to really upset teams. This game doesn't get any easier to ref just because it's later in the season.

[PayneTrain]

Originally Posted by JesseK

I find the speculation around CA quite awkward, regardless of the teams involved. It will drive you nuts trying to figure out 'why so and so won' or even 'why did we win over so and so'.

There are a lot of good programs in the region, especially when we get to know the context of what is happening behind the scenes on a given team by actually listening to their stories.

We too feel honored to be long-time friends with GaCo and the RoboBees. We look forward to seeing you guys at DCMPS!

Edit - BY THE WAY
Doswell needs more refs. If you want to ref, know the rules and feel you can pass the ref test, contact Sally and she'll put you in touch with Janet. If there aren't any 'extra' refs for the current refs to rotate out, expect a few missed calls/etc to really upset teams. This game doesn't get any easier to ref just because it's later in the season.

I find all speculation to be pretty trippy. I mostly just wanted to bring attention to 836, a team that has won many RCAs in the past because they are a great team. If you ctrl+F the DC-MD-VA events from last year, you don't see the fact that they won it in Palmetto, Week 1. That's just one obvious observation I thought was missing.

Re: referees, we are all new to the district system and 422 is also in a position where we are graduating alumni who want to come back and work with the program in certain significant ways as a volunteer. When we got an email for Blacksburg, we had a couple people hop in the fray. It might sound backwards but dropping a line to coaches as soon as possible on specific needs can help all of us throw some names out. People who have never volunteered are not in the VIMS database, but they are in my address book!