CHS Platter - Week Four - Cheesy Centers

[CHS Platter]

District Championship Points Predictions

CHS Platter has determined with a high degree of certainty that 54 points is the likely minimum to be invited to the District Championship. 58 slots are available, with 7 going to District Chairman's teams.

Pre-Qualified teams based on DCA:
116 - Epsilon Delta
1086 - Blue Cheese
1885 - ILITE Robotics
2363 - Triple Helix
4945 - Titanium-Wrecks

Predicted DCA teams:
Central MD: 1629 - Garrett Coalition (GaCo)
Central VA: 384 - Sparky 384

Methodologies:
This leaves 51 points-based positions up for grabs. Many teams have already hit this mark. But many teams will qualify based on the performances from this weekend.

We've created and tested three models of the CHS District points structure, with all calculations producing very close results.
1. We awarded a flat number of district ranking points to teams that have not yet played their second event. The number of points is chosen to be approximately equal to the average amount of points scored by all district teams in their first event. This straightforward simulation predicts the DCMP point cutoff will be approximately 53 points.
2. Similar to model 1, but we awarded a variable number of district ranking points to teams that have not yet played their second event. The shape of the point distribution was averaged from the outcomes of the previous 5 CHS events. We assigned points to teams based on a random guess about their performance in week 4 events. This simulation predicts cutoff at approximately 54 points.
3. Similar to model 2, but we assigned these points to the week 4 teams based on CHS Platter predictions about how these teams will perform. CHS Platter predictions are informed by a rich mixture of numerical and subjective data gathered over the previous 3 weeks of competition. This simulation predicts cutoff at approximately 55 points.

Predicted to qualify:

Current Points	Team
47		623 - Cougar Robotics
53		5279 - Bionic Eagles
35		401 - Copperhead Robotics
48		1389 - The Body Electric
40		422 - Mech Tech Dragons
35		612 - Chantilly Robotics
41		1137 - Rocket Sauce
31		2528 - RoboDoves
38		339 - Kilroy Robotics
32		4505 - McDonogh Eagle Robotics
40		977 - Cometbots
30		2199 - Robo-Lions
14		3939 - Robotic Knights
30		2912 - Panthers
32		5936 - TigerBots

On the bubble:

Current Points	Team
25		2028 - Phantom Mentalist
17		2914 - TIGER PRIDE
26		2377 - C Company
39		2421 - RTR Team Robotics
26		1829 - Carbonauts
25		540 - TALON 540 Godwin Robotics
54		1895 - Lambda Corps
54		5841 - The Patriots
53		5954 - Portable Chargers
34		4514 - Calvert STEAM Works