Championship Waitlist

[orangemoore]

Originally Posted by forbes

The last wait list change was made on 4/3. The list above is still current- a total of 18 teams are currently registered for the championship from the wait list.

Do we know how many spots are left to be handed out?

[SenorZ]

Originally Posted by orangemoore

Do we know how many spots are left to be handed out?

This "old school" version of the site has the tally at 321 teams so far.

https://my.usfirst.org/myarea/index....2016&event=cmp

[forbes]

Originally Posted by orangemoore

Do we know how many spots are left to be handed out?

Based on my (possibly inaccurate) count, at least 25 wait list spots still need to be handed out. As many as ~40 could be given out, especially if they go over the 600 team target like last year.

[MechEng83]

Originally Posted by orangemoore

Do we know how many spots are left to be handed out?

With 321 spots currently taken, and 6 regionals this weekend (36 spots) and 218 district spots allocated, that leaves 25 spots left to fill with the waitlist, assuming 600 teams.

This doesn't account for any spots taken by a district team at a regional.

[SenorZ]

Hmmm. Looks like we might be saving that $5000 for other projects.

[seg9585]

Originally Posted by MechEng83

With 321 spots currently taken, and 6 regionals this weekend (36 spots) and 218 district spots allocated, that leaves 25 spots left to fill with the waitlist, assuming 600 teams.

This doesn't account for any spots taken by a district team at a regional.

Can you explain the "218 district spots allocated"? I am not familiar with how district events allocate championship spots.

[MechEng83]

Originally Posted by seg9585

Can you explain the "218 district spots allocated"? I am not familiar with how district events allocate championship spots.

https://firstfrc.blob.core.windows.n...-manual-07.pdf
The table in Section 7.4.4

[Owen Busler]

Originally Posted by seg9585

Can you explain the "218 district spots allocated"? I am not familiar with how district events allocate championship spots.

From the admin manual:

7.4.4 FIRST Championship Teams from Districts

"Districts will receive the percentage of available slots at the FIRST championship, rounded up to the nearest whole slot, equal to the percentage of teams they have in their District compared to all of FIRST Robotics Competition in the current season. In calculating available slots at the FIRST Championship, pre-qualified teams will be excluded. "

7.4.3 District Championship

"Team capacity at District Championships for the 2016 season will be as follows:
Chesapeake District Championship...................................... 58
Indiana State Championship...................................... ........... 32
Michigan State Championship...................................... .......102
Mid-Atlantic Robotics District Championship ........................ 55
North Carolina FIRST Robotics State Championship............. 32
New England District Championship..................................... 64
Pacific Northwest District Championship .............................. 64
Peachtree District State Championship................................. 45"

[seg9585]

Okay, so effectively ~half of the teams competing in District Championships will earn a spot to Champs?

Makes me wonder what the true "path of least resistance" of qualifying for Champs actually is.

[AdamHeard]

Originally Posted by seg9585

Okay, so effectively ~half of the teams competing in District Championships will earn a spot to Champs?

Makes me wonder what the true "path of least resistance" of qualifying for Champs actually is.

Districts, for sure.

[MechEng83]

Originally Posted by seg9585

Okay, so effectively ~half of the teams competing in District Championships will earn a spot to Champs?

Makes me wonder what the true "path of least resistance" of qualifying for Champs actually is.

Please don't forget that the teams competing in a district championship have already passed the filter of qualifying in their district to compete in the championship and gain a chance at qualifying for the world championship.

For example: Michigan has 411 teams. 102 compete at the DCMP. 76 qualify for CMP. 76/411 = 18.5%
Indiana has 49 teams. 32 compete at DCMP. 9 qualify for CMP. 9/49 = 18.4%

That's still a better percentage than you see at a typical regional, but it's not a "nearly half" situation.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by seg9585

Okay, so effectively ~half of the teams competing in District Championships will earn a spot to Champs?

Makes me wonder what the true "path of least resistance" of qualifying for Champs actually is.

218 out of 600 is much closer to 1/3 of spots than 1/2 of spots.

The quantity of teams each district sends to the Championship is based on their proportion of the total teams in FRC. A more populous district sends more teams.

In terms of the "path of least resistance," it really depends on what your team is. If you're a high performing team, districts affords you a much greater chance to qualify via points. If you're a middle of the pack team, you may have better odds in a regional format, and hoping to be on the right alliance at the right time and take home a regional win (or wildcard).

[seg9585]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

218 out of 600 is much closer to 1/3 of spots than 1/2 of spots.

I didn't say half the teams attending champs were from Districts, just that half the District Champs teams were attending worlds. Very different.

Looking at Michigan for a second:

411 teams in total, 76 qualify for CMP (18.5%)

vs

Non-rookie team attending 2 regionals:
1st regional, 5 spots out of 65 make it to champs (7.7% chance to make Champs)
2nd regional, 5 spots out of 48 earn champs spots (reduced total number of teams attending the regional because they already earned spots, effectively factoring in wildcards): (10.4% chance to make Champs)

0.923 * .896 = .827 chance of not making Champs = 17.3% chance of making Champs from Regionals from a purely statistical standpoint.

So to *nearly* match the odds of making Champs at Regionals, one must always plan to attend 2 regionals.
2 regionals = $9000, vs 2 district events + district championship = $8000

$432 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Districts
$520 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Regionals

[MechEng83]

Originally Posted by seg9585

I didn't say half the teams attending champs were from Districts, just that half the District Champs teams were attending worlds. Very different.

Looking at Michigan for a second:

411 teams in total, 76 qualify for CMP (18.5%)

vs

Non-rookie team attending 2 regionals:
1st regional, 5 spots out of 65 make it to champs (7.7% chance to make Champs)
2nd regional, 5 spots out of 48 earn champs spots (reduced total number of teams attending the regional because they already earned spots, effectively factoring in wildcards): (10.4% chance to make Champs)

0.923 * .896 = .827 chance of not making Champs = 17.3% chance of making Champs from Regionals from a purely statistical standpoint.

So to *nearly* match the odds of making Champs at Regionals, one must always plan to attend 2 regionals.
2 regionals = $9000, vs 2 district events + district championship = $8000

$432 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Districts
$520 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Regionals

Incorrect. Our registration is $5000 just like every one else. The DCMP is $4000, just like a 2nd play regional.

[orangemoore]

Looks like 2 teams were removed from CMP list.

Both appear to be waitlist teams

2647
4792

So that brings the # of wait list spot up to 27